Where Are We On The Social Distribution Hype Cycle? – IrishCentral.com

Where Are We On The Social Distribution Hype Cycle? – IrishCentral.com.

 

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We’ve come a long way from the old days of news sharing.

NewsWhip tracks the spread of all content on social media. This is a frothy space, with dramatic increases in the volume of content being shared, and the corresponding traffic coming to publishers and brands from that content. Here, we try and explore where we are in the “social distribution hype cycle.”

You may have heard of the Hype Cycle, a view developed by Gartner to give context to the stages in adoption of a new technology or process by business.

Image: Wikipedia

Let’s run through it quickly. First, a new technology is developed – thetechnology trigger. The hot new thing is heralded by early adopters – leading to inflated expectations, irrational exuberance, over-investment, and a peak in the “hype cycle” – the great big mountain on the left.

But – the technology fails to match the expectations, leading to a steep trough of disillusionment. It didn’t deliver, we overpaid. Darn snake oil. Early adopters are burned.

But meanwhile, quietly, processes are improving, underlying technology is being iterated by wily startups, and tangible benefits start to accrue. We recognize and better value the true benefits of the technology and finally climb the slope of enlightenment.

Finally, the more conservative early majority come aboard, and we achieve a plateau of productivity – and for stakeholders in the new technology – perhaps some profit.

Here’s a much more detailed version that breaks out events, financing and other possible events along the way:

So where on the hype cycle is social distribution today?

By social distribution, I mean the “many to many” distribution of content (videos, articles, news, other media) by people to people, usually via social networks, email and other peer-to-peer technologies. This is contrasted with the old pipelines of the last media era –  TV towers, newspaper agents, and radios, that delivered content directly from mass media providers.

Social distribution is not a single technology – it’s a change enabled by a bunch of technologies. But it’s fast displacing other distribution methods. More people arrive at many news sites today via Facebook than via the site’s front page. In the US, we estimate more people are probably catching nuggets of news on Facebook than from the major TV networks each day. For many big online publishers, 30% to 50% of traffic is now coming from social networks. Meanwhile “dark social” traffic – from emails and instant messages – makes up another huge chunk of visitors.

Some believe that social distribution is the natural way for information to be shared – and mass media was only a temporary phenomenon that lasted from the first mass produced papers (1700s) ’til right about now. At NewsWhip, we partially agree. We think social distribution will overtake many other forms of media discovery and distribution over the next few years.

But that’s a hypey statement right? The idea that the pipelines of content distribution are being torn up and replaced by a sharing and subscribing on social networks? I agree – but I do believe that it’s happening, and we have the data to back it up. So let’s see where we are in this hype cycle.

Here’s Theory One. We begin in 2009 as share buttons are introduced and quickly become ubiquitous. Publishers notice that they are getting a bump in traffic, especially to some stories. Social networks give new prominence to new sites and personalities.

In the graph below, that puts us on the steep climb up the start of the hype cycle.

As hype builds, we see new technology and service providers appear – like NewsWhip (content monitoring and discovery), Storyful (UGC verification and licensing), or Social Flow (distribution timing optimisation). Welcome to 2011 – 2012.

In the same period, new socially optimized publishers gain prominence – BuzzFeed, and new tearaway right and left wing outlets (The Blaze, Think Progress). Then we see the second wave, of curators turning up shareable nuggets (Upworthy, ViralNova). They get big in 2013.

CMO Spend 2014: Running on Digital (Gartner Infographic)

CMO Spend 2014: Running on Digital (Gartner Infographic)

Selon une enquête de Gartner, menée entre juillet et septembre 2013 auprès de marketeurs américains de grandes entreprises, les budgets de marketing digital devraient augmenter de +10% en 2014.
En 2013, le marketing numérique représentait 28,5% du budget marketing total, contre 25,5% en 2012. La plus grosse part du budget était consacrée à la publicité digitale (12,2%), contre 10,3% pour le site internet corporate, 9,6% pour le commerce numérique et 9,5% pour le marketing mobile et social. En moyenne, les entreprises ont dépensé 10,7% de leur chiffre d’affaires 2013 sur l’ensemble de leurs activités marketing, et 3,1% en marketing digital, contre 2,5% du CA en 2012, soit +20%. En 2014, les dépenses en marketing digital devraient représenter 3,3% du CA.

Gartner Says Mobile Advertising Spending Will Reach $18 Billion in 2014

Gartner Says Mobile Advertising Spending Will Reach $18 Billion in 2014.

Growth from 2015 to 2017 Will Be Fueled by Improved Market Conditions

Global mobile advertising spending is forecast to reach $18.0 billion [≈ net worth of Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York City] in 2014, up from the estimated $13.1 billion [≈ net worth of Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook, 2011] in 2013, according to Gartner, Inc. The market is expected to grow to $41.9 billion [≈ AT&T T-Mobile purchase] by 2017. Gartner said that display formats will make up most of the revenue, but video will show the highest growth.

“Over the next few years, growth in mobile advertising spending will slow due to ad space inventory supply growing faster than demand, as the number of mobile websites and applications increases faster than brands request ad space on mobile device screens,” said Stephanie Baghdassarian, research director at Gartner. “However, from 2015 to 2017, growth will be fueled by improved market conditions, such as provider consolidation, measurement standardization and new targeting technologies, along with a sustained interest in the mobile medium from advertisers.”

With regard to the different ad formats used in the mobile sector, mobile display ad formats are collectively the single biggest category of ads, and will remain so throughout the forecast period, although this category will shift to mobile Web display after several years of higher growth in in-app display. Uptake of the audio/video format by the end of the forecast period is higher because the tablet form factor will drive video, and the tablet market continues to grow.

In addition, search/map ad types will benefit from increased use of location data gathered from users, either through them opting into being located automatically through their devices or because they proactively check in the places they visit using apps such as Foursquare and Pinterest. As a result, local advertisers will be more interested in the mobile channel as a means of pushing ads. The split between in-app and Web display is taking longer to shift in favor of the latter, as the use of HTML5 tools in mobile website development is taking longer to impact the market.

All regions of the world will experience strong growth in mobile advertising spend, although North America is where most of growth will come from, due to the sheer scale of its advertising budgets and their shift to mobile.

“North America is the region with the strongest general advertising focus and investment. It is also the region where online advertising is most mature,” said Mike McGuire, research vice president at Gartner. “Overall advertising budgets are the highest, so when a portion shifts to mobile, in a multiplatform approach, it immediately impacts the market’s scale.”

Western Europe’s market for mobile advertising will remain similar to North America’s, albeit at a slightly lower scale, for the duration of the forecast period. “The mobile channel will become more and more integrated into 360-degree advertising campaigns, eating up budget historically allocated to print and radio advertising,” said Ms. Baghdassarian.

Asia/Pacific and Japan is the most mature region for mobile advertising, and therefore growth will slow between2012 and 2017, averaging 30 percent a year. Historically, the unusually high adoption of handsets for digital content consumption in Japan and South Korea has given the Asia/Pacific region an early lead in mobile advertising. Looking forward, Gartner expects the high-growth economies of China and India to contribute increasingly to mobile advertising growth as their expanding middle classes present attractive markets for global and local brands.

In the emerging markets of Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, mobile advertising growth will largely track the technology adoption and stabilization of emerging economies, but will mostly be driven by large markets such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico. From 2015, growth rates in this region will exceed the worldwide average.

More detailed analysis is available in the report “Forecast: Mobile Advertising, Worldwide, 2010-2017.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2642816.

En 2017, plus de 100 applications et services utiliseront vos données perso quotidiennement

En 2017, plus de 100 applications et services utiliseront vos données perso quotidiennement.


applications appstore

Les applications mobiles sont en train de devenir la passerelle entre l’utilisateur et son environnement mais elles auront besoin de toujours plus de données personnelles pour remplir leur fonction, prédit le cabinet d’études Gartner.

Les applications mobiles ont déjà profondément transformé l’industrie en formant des écosystèmes dans lesquels les utilisateurs peuvent personnaliser leurs terminaux selon leurs besoins propres. Avec plus d’un million d’applications sur les plus gros portails, il y a une application pour presque tout et la prochaine étape passera par une affinement des réponses à ces besoins grâce à l’influx des données personnelles.

Logo Gartner Le cabinet d’études Gartner estime que d’ici 2017, plus de 268 milliards d’applications auront été téléchargées, générant des revenus de 77 milliards de dollars. Mais parce que les fonctionnalités s’enrichissent à partir des informations fournies par les utilisateurs eux-mêmes, ces derniers doivent s’attendre à ce que les flux de leurs données personnelles alimentent à cette date plus de 100 applications et services quotidiennement.

La large gratuité des applications (plus de 90% des catalogues) a aussi pour contrepartie que de grandes quantités de données personnelles sont dès à présent récupérées, analysées, traitées, disséquées…

Les applications mobiles sont déjà un outil puissant pour les entreprises cherchant à mieux identifier leurs consommateurs pour répondre de façon pertinente à leurs besoins et cette tendance va largement s’accroître avec les gadgets du wearable computing, qui sont avant tout de nouveaux moyens de collecter des données personnelles jusque-là inaccessibles.

Influentes actuellement sur les smartphones et les tablettes, les applications auront bientôt desincidences profondes sur d’autres aspects, de la domotique au véhicule en passant par les gadgets connectés. Ces derniers auront notamment besoin des applications pour assurer une récupération et un traitement des données que leurs caractéristiques ne permettront pas de gérer directement, étant essentiellement des capteurs extrayant des données brutes.

Ce qui signifie aussi que les liens entre gadgets et terminaux mobiles sont là pour durer, avec les applications pour faire le lien. Les analystes de Gartner y voient l’émergence d’une nouvelle forme d’informatique et d’organisation alimentées par les données personnelles des utilisateurs capables de “deviner” leurs intentions et d’anticiper les interactions à venir.

Cela peut passer par la fourniture d’information pertinente avant qu’elle soit demandée ou par la mise en place automatique d’outils en amont de l’action de l’utilisateur (ouverture d’applications, réglages spécifiques, etc).

LG Lifeband Touch Pour fonctionner, ce “cognizant computing” entrevu par Gartner aura besoin de beaucoup d’informations sur l’utilisateur et ses habitudes. Les analystes anticipent qu’il fonctionnera particulièrement bien dans des environnements à faible variabilité comme dans les foyers où les actions peuvent être plus ou moins routinières et donc plus facilement anticipables, sans avoir non plus besoin de mettre en lien beaucoup de bases de données.

Mais ce n’est évidemment qu’un point de départ avant des scénarios plus complexes. Et les grands groupes comme Google, Facebook, Amazon ou Apple sont déjà à la recherche des moyens de collecter et de regrouper au mieux ces énormes masses d’informations du quotidien, dont les applications peuvent ensuite tirer parti.

Cette évolution laisse entrevoir des possibilités à peine imaginables actuellement mais on ne pourra que noter que l’être humain est à peine évoqué dans cette vision, en dehors d’un rôle de producteur des données en question, et qu’il aura dans le même temps de moins en moins de possibilités d’échapper à cette prise de contrôle de ce qui fait justement son essence : ses propres choix.

18 milliards de dollars : le marché de la pub mobile devrait exploser en 2014

18 milliards de dollars : le marché de la pub mobile devrait exploser en 2014.

Marina Torre  |  21/01/2014, 9:30  -  678  mots
La publicité sur mobile devrait générer cette année près de 5 milliards de dollarsde plus que l’an dernier selon le cabinet spécialisé Gartner. Toutes les régions du monde devraient en profiter… jusqu’à l’explosion de la bulle?

La ruée vers le mobile se poursuit. Le marché mondial de la publicité sur les terminaux mobiles devrait atteindre 18 milliards de dollars (13,2 milliards d’euros) contre 13,1 milliards l’an dernier (soit un peu mois de 10 milliards d’euros), selon la dernière étude du cabinet Gartner publiée ce mardi.

Cette étude prend en compte les dépenses pour les vidéos, bandeaux publicitaires et autres qui sont affichés sur smarpthones et tablettes. Elle est en ligne avec d’autres enquêtes statistiques. Ainsi, au mois de juin, un autre cabinet spécialisé, ZenithOptimedia, une filiale de Publicis, avait estimé à 14 milliards les investissements des annonceurs sur les supports mobiles en 2013.

Le marché aura triplé en 2017

Les prévisions de Gartner pour les trois prochaines années sont encore plus optimistes. Au cours des trois prochaines années, le marché aura triplé par rapport à 2013, atteignant les 41,9 milliards de dollars (environ 30 milliards d’euros), selon le cabinet d’études.

De 2015 à 2017, les chercheurs de Gartner prévoient que la “consolidation du secteur“, l’harmonisation des mesures d’audience ou encore les nouvelles technologies de ciblage des consommateurs soutiendront cette forte croissance.

Recul des parts de marché en Asie

Au niveau géographique, “toutes les régions du monde” seront concernées, anticipe Gartner, mais les Etats-Unis, plus que tout autre pays, devraient en profiter. C’est là, en effet, que les budgets publicitaires sont les plus élevés au monde. Un autre cabinet d’études spécialisé, eMarketer, prévoit une croissance de 56% des dépenses publicitaires sur mobile aux Etats-Unis en 2014, soit près de 15 milliards de dollars.

Stéphanie Baghdassarian, analyste spécialiste des applications et de la publicité mobile chez Gartner explique à La Tribune:

“La part de marché pour l’Amérique du Nord est stable à environ 38% et devrait le rester dans les années à venir. Le changement viendra surtout d’Asie Pacifique, région qui était très représentée par le Japon et la Corée du Sud et représentait 60% des parts de marché il y a trois ans. En 2017, cela se tasse un peu à environ 34%, surtout au profit de l’Amérique du Nord et de l’Europe de l’Ouest.”

Partout dans les économies matures, cette poussée de la publicité sur mobile se réalisera au détriment des autres supports, en “grignotant des parts de budgets historiquement allouées au papier ou la radio”.

>> Pourquoi la pub sur mobile explose… sauf en France

Géolocalisation et publicités locales

Dans le détail, les formats vidéos devraient bénéficier de la hausse des ventes des tablettes. Et d’autres avancées techniques notamment la géolocalisation, permettront de laisser libre cours à l’imagination des publicitaires et seront susceptibles d’attirer les petits annonceurs locaux.

La part des annonces “géolocalisées” devrait atteindre 40%. Celle-ci comprend à la fois celles qui sont “poussées” vers l’utilisateur dont le mobile est par exemple connecté au Bluetooth, mais aussi celles des annonceurs qui payent pour être mis en avant sur une carte interactive.

Facebook et Twitter parient sur le mobile

Des géants du web américain, comme Facebook par exemple, ont largement parié sur ce modèle. Leurs bons résultats sur le mobile suscitent d’ailleurs régulièrement l’enthousiasme des investisseurs.

>> La pub sur mobile fait flamber Facebook en Bourse

Le réseau social Twitter, de son côté, a réalisé sa plus grosse acquisition dans le secteur de la publicité sur mobile en achetant MoPub, une plateforme de publicité en temps réel sur mobile, pour un montant évalué de 300 à 400 millions de dollars. 

Une bulle

Toutefois, Stéphanie Baghdassarian constate un effet de nature à ralentir la croissance dans le secteur à partir de 2016/2017. Elle fait observer que :

“la croissance de l’espace disponible (nombre d’utilisateurs, nombre d’application etc) est plus rapide que la croissance de la demande de la part des annonceurs”.

La publicité sur les applications mobiles étant souvent le fait de développeurs qui font de la publicité pour leur propre application sur d’autres applications, cela créé “une bulle qui ne génère pas de vrai revenu”.

Les ventes de tablettes ont crû de +50,2% en 2013 (Gartner)

Le 08/01/2014

nl449-logo-gartner

L’institut Gartner a revu à la baisse son estimation des ventes de PC, tablettes et mobiles en 2013 : 2,300 milliards d’unités dans le monde versus sa prévision de2,316 milliards publiée en octobre (voir archive). Par rapport à 2012, cela représente une croissance de +3,8%, au lieu du +4,5% prévu.
Gartner reste cependant optimiste pour l’année 2014 avec une prévision de croissance de +7,6%, suivie d’une croissance de +5,9% en 2013.
Les ventes de tablettes ont crû de +50,2% en 2013 (180 millions d’unités) et représenté 71% de la croissance totale des achats de devices. En 2014, leur croissance est prévue à +46,7%, représentant 48% de la croissance totale, et, en 2015, les ventes de tablettes dépasseront les ventes de PC et le seuil des300 millions d’unités.
Les ventes de téléphones mobiles ont augmenté de +3,3% en 2013 et sont prévues à +4,9% en 2014, avec près d’1,9 milliard d’unités. Celles des devices ultramobiles (Hybrid et Clamshell) ont augmenté de +84% en 2013 et devraient plus que doubler en 2014 (+131%), avec près de 40 millions d’unités. Les ventes de PC continuent de diminuer : -7,2% prévu en 2014 après une année 2013 à -12,3%.

NL849-image-gartner

Selon Gartner, Android sera le premier système d’exploitation des devices vendus en 2014 avec 44,6% du marché (vs 38,2% en 2013), devant Windows (14,5%) et iOS/Mac OS (13,9%).

The Digital Industrial Economy by Peter Sondergaard (Gartner)

The Digital Industrial Economy.

Peter Sondergaard 
Research Director 
 25 years at Gartner
 29 years IT Industr

The digital world is upon us. Every budget is an IT budget. Every company is a technology company. Every business leader is becoming a digital leader. Every person is becoming a technology company.

Welcome to the Digital Industrial Economy.

If you’ve already attended Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in South Africa, Japan, US, India or Australia this week, you’ll recognize these opening remarks from our analyst keynote. And judging by the literally hundreds of CIOs I have spoke to over the past few weeks at these events, we’ve captured the attention, mood, hopes and, quite frankly, many of the fears of our attendees.

One of the questions we address directly in our opening keynote is about “digital” itself. Basically, what is it?

First, it’s not digitization. That is about zeros and ones. Digitalization is about something much, much more. Something altogether bigger and fundamentally more important. It’s about the transformation of your business.

Digital business applies unprecedented combinations of new technologies to generate revenue and value. It starts with digital assets and capabilities.

For business, it means digital products, services and customer experiences conducted through digital channels from the front office all the way through the value chain. For governments, it means digital services to constituents, more transparency and higher mission effectiveness

Digitalization exposes every part of your business and its operations to the Nexus of Forces (where cloud, mobile, information and social technologies meet) and the Internet of Everything. It is how you reach customers and constituents, how you run your physical plant and how you generate revenues or deliver services.

No matter what business or service you deliver today, digitalization is changing it. The changes we see in media and digital marketing are just the beginning. If you work in agriculture, mining or manufacturing, digitalization means a new opportunity for you as well. If you deliver public services, digitalization allows you to better engage with your constituents where they are in the moment.

And the way your business runs, your internal operations, are changing too as digitalization is becoming pervasive inside organizations, shortening time cycles. For example, to a chief marketing officer, what happens with a customer in the moment can make all the difference. S/he can commission a successful mobile app-driven campaign that sees payback in a matter of weeks. That’s the time it takes a typical IT organization to just gather requirements.

We are seeing the cost for the basic hardware building blocks of the Digital Industrial Economy, such as sensors, radios, and microprocessors are plummeting. In 2009, 0.9B sensors and 1.6B personal devices — so roughly 2.5B “things” — were connected. But by 2020, that will grow to become 30B “things”. In fact, by 2020 all products costing more than $100 should have sensorsembedded, even if you don’t know what to use them for.

Digitalization will change the way we all think about technology and, after talking to CIOs at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo across four continents in the last few weeks, it will fundamentally change the way we need to lead our organizations to be successful in this new digital world.

Peter Sondergaard is a senior vice president in Gartner, where he is the global head of Gartner Research. Mr. Sondergaard is responsible for people management and the direction of the global research organization, which includes Semiconductors, IT Infrastructure and Operations, Communications, Software and Services Management, Business of IT, Research Operations Management, and IT provider and end-user organizational roles. 

Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2014 – Forbes

Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2014 – Forbes.


Gartner just concluded its Gartner Symposium/ITxpo 2013 in Orlando, gathering tens of thousands of IT executives. Among the most anticipated aspects of the gathering are the ruminations from the Gartner pontificators regarding IT trends.  Among several trends shared were the Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2014. Here is a summary of those trends:

Mobile Device Diversity and Management

Gartner suggests that now through 2018, a variety of devices, user contexts, and interaction paradigms will make “everything everywhere” strategies unachievable. The unintended consequence of bring your own device (BYOD) programs has been to render much more complex (by two or three times, Gartner estimates) the size of the mobile workforce, straining both the information technology and the finance organizations. It is recommended that companies better define expectations for employee-owned hardware to balance flexibility with confidentiality and privacy requirements.


Gartner predicts that through 2014, improved JavaScript performance will begin to push HTML5 and the browser as a mainstream enterprise application development environment. As a consequence, it was suggested that developers focus on expanding user interface models including richer voice and video that can connect people in new and different ways. Apps will grow and applications will shrink, continuing a trend that has been documented for a while now.  The market for creating apps continues to be very fragmented (Gartner estimates that there are over 100 potential tool vendors), and consolidation is not likely to happen in earnest for a while. It is suggested that ‘the next evolution in user experience will be to leverage intent, inferred from emotion and actions, to motivate changes in end-user behavior.”Mobile Apps and Applications

The Internet of Everything

The Internet is expanding into enterprise assets and consumer items such as cars and televisions. The problem is that most enterprises and technology vendors have yet to explore the possibilities of an expanded Internet and are not operationally or organizationally ready. Gartner identifies four basic usage models that are emerging:

  • Manage
  • Monetize
  • Operate
  • Extend.

These can be applied to people, things, information, and places, and therefore the so called “Internet of Things” will be succeeded by the “Internet of Everything.”

Hybrid Cloud and IT as Service Broker

Gartner suggests that bringing together personal clouds and external private cloud services is essential. Enterprises should design private cloud services with a hybrid future in mind and make sure future integration/interoperability is possible. Early hybrid cloud services will likely be more static, engineered compositions, and Gartner suggests that more deployment compositions will emerge as cloud service brokerages evolve.

Cloud/Client Architecture

As the power and capability of many mobile devices increases, the increased demand on networks, the cost of networks, and the need to manage bandwidth use “creates incentives, in some cases, to minimize the cloud application computing and storage footprint, and to exploit the intelligence and storage of the client device.” Gartner also notes that as mobile users continue to demand more complex uses of their mobile technologies, it will drive a need for higher levels of server-side computing and storage capacity.

The Era of Personal Cloud

The push for more personal cloud technologies will lead to a shift toward services and away from devices. The type of device one has will be less important, as the personal cloud takes over some of the role that the device has traditionally had with multiple devices accessing the personal cloud.

Software Defined Anything

Software-defined anything (SDx) is defined by “improved standards for infrastructure programmability and data center interoperability driven by automation inherent to cloud computing, DevOps and fast infrastructure provisioning.” Dominant vendors in a given sector of an infrastructure-type may elect not to follow standards that increase competition and lower margins, but end-customer will benefit from simplicity, cost reduction opportunities, and the possibility for consolidation.

Web-Scale IT

Large cloud services providers such as Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc., are re-inventing the way IT in which IT services can be delivered.  Gartner points out that the capabilities of these companies exceeds the “scale in terms of sheer size to also include scale as it pertains to speed and agility.” The suggestion is that IT organizations should align with and emulate the processes, architectures, and practices of theses leading cloud providers. The combination of these three is how Garnter defines “Web-scale IT.”

Smart Machines

Gartner suggests that the “The smart machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT.” These will include the proliferation of

  • contextually aware, intelligent personal assistants
  • smart advisors (e.g., IBM Watson)
  • advanced global industrial systems
  • autonomous vehicles.

The company also projects that smart machines will strengthen the forces of consumerization after enterprise buying commences in earnest.

3-D Printing

The growth of 3-D printers is projected to be 75 percent in the coming year, and200 percent in 2015. Gartner suggests that “the consumer market hype has made organizations aware of the fact 3D printing is a real, viable and cost-effective means to reduce costs through improved designs, streamlined prototyping and short-run manufacturing.”

IT in 2020: Internet of things, digital business enthusiasm abounds | ZDNet

IT in 2020: Internet of things, digital business enthusiasm abounds | ZDNet.

Summary: Will the digitization of business change everything? Here’s Gartner’s pitch for 2020, which includes $1.9 trillion [≈ California GDP, 2011] of economic value add from the Internet of things, a crisis of IT leadership (again) and colliding industries.

ORLANDO — The digitization of business and life will revamp the enterprise vendor pecking order — more like destroy it — create $1.9 trillion [≈ California GDP, 2011] in economic value add via the Internet of things and lead to a digital workforce and smart machines that will replace 1 in 3 knowledge workers.

Welcome to Gartner’s view of technology in 2020. The key theme is that every company will be a technology company. And Gartner research chief Peter Sondergaard went as far to say “every person is becoming a technology company” as the digital industrial economy kicks off.

Technology will be embedded into everything and be invisible. Naturally, this reality will grow data exponentially.

Sondergaard noted that there’s a “crisis in IT leadership” as companies navigate digitization. He told CIOs that they need to create their company’s digital story before the CEO creates roles for chief digital officers and digital strategists.

According to Sondergaard, virtual and physical will merge intoone business reality. He said there will be “competing digital titles” as digitization takes hold, but people like chief digital officers will be extinct in 2020. These roles will implement change and then disappear.

The punch line with Sondergaard is that you’ll need Gartner’s research and services to lead your company to 2020 and digitization nirvana. Nevertheless, it’s hard to argue with Gartner’s take. The Internet of everything will mean companies will compete with a whole new set of players. Knowledge workers will be replaced by smart systems they trained. And tech vendors will face extinction on many fronts because they can’t react and innovate fast enough.

Now you can quibble with Gartner’s timeline — 2020 may be too soon —but CIOs should at least be able to see the digitization train coming down the tracks.

sondergaard pic internet of things
internet of things gartner

Let’s look at some of Gartner’s 2020 projections and do a reality check.

  • 20 percent of computers will learn not just process in 2017. This one doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. Watson will be manning call centers in the not too distant future.
  • By 2020, one in three knowledge workers will be replaced by enterprise owned smart machines they trained. Again, this prediction makes sense. IT is being automated and people will too.
  • The Internet of things will create economic value for all organizations and sectors and create an additional $1.9 trillion [≈ California GDP, 2011] for the economy by 2020. I’m a bit skeptical about the timing more than the actual dollar amount. There are multiple technical issues — standards, interoperability — to work through. As for the dollar amount, these predictions really just require a number before a “trillion” to ramp excitement.
  • Digital time will go faster than your current IT vendors. Sondergaard said best of breed vendors have emerged because megavendors can’t deliver value. This call is a no brainer. Your enterprise vendor today probably won’t be in 7 years.
  • Two thirds of CIOs expect to change primary suppliers by 2017. I don’t question the feeling that CIOs want to toss their vendors. My bet is lock-in will push out that supplier tossing timeline.
  • By 2017, 65 percent of data center capacity will be private, down from 80 percent today. Sondergaard’s stat highlights the reality — enterprises aren’t going cloud happy en masse. The run to the cloud may be slower — due to depreciation and other non-IT issues. It is safe to say that if you bought a server today it’s going to be really hard to justify a purchase three years from now.
  • Companies will compete across industry borders. Sondergaard said “it’s the death of the SIC codes.” Think about how IBM and GE compete more and more everyday. UPS is a technology company just like Amazon is. The concept that companies will compete with rivals outside their industries isn’t shocking, but in 2020 it’s questionable whether every company will be information driven. Are we really going to see furniture companies do furniture as a service models?
  • In two years, the combined IT and telecom market will hit almost $4 trillion [≈ 2009 federal spending], or 5 percent of global GDP. A believable statistic — someone has to network the Internet of things.
  • By 2020, 30 billion things will be connected as every product more than $100 will be smart. I can see the reasoning as sensors are embedded everywhere. The things projection is largely a guess based on a growth rate. IDC also has its guess.
  • 3D printing will revolutionize the supply chain. This one is totally believable and on-demand parts will be critical for both new and mature products.

Kantar: Android Took 65% Of Sales Across Major Markets In Last Quarter; Windows Phone Grew By Tapping Dumbphone Users | TechCrunch

Kantar: Android Took 65% Of Sales Across Major Markets In Last Quarter; Windows Phone Grew By Tapping Dumbphone Users | TechCrunch.

stack of phones

The latest smartphone sales figures are out today fromKantar WorldPanel Comtech, and in case you needed one more metric to underscore the topline trend that’s been the case for years, the WPP-owned market-research analysts are giving it to you: led by Samsung, Android accounted for65 percent of all smartphone sales in the nine influential smartphone markets in the world (UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, USA, Australia, China, Mexico) for the 12-week period to the end of July.

Apple, meanwhile, is an increasingly mixed picture, with shares as low as 6 percent in one country, Spain, and as high as 43 percent in the U.S., for a nine-market share of26.3 percent. Kantar’s figures also highlight another important trend. Microsoft’s Windows Phone OS devices — and by association its biggest partner, Nokia — continue to gain ground, if slowly. The platform is now at 4.4 percent of sales across these markets, says Kantar, nudging up to3.5 percent of sales in the U.S., and in Europe, doubling its share in the last year to 8.2 percent of sales.

It’s not all rosy for Windows Phone, though: in China, its already-tiny share halved over a year ago, and it’s now at just 2.2 percent of sales.

Kantar’s figures are an interesting counterbalance to figures from analysts like IDC, Gartner and Strategy Analytics, which chart shipments from handset makers (and therefore may be overshooting or undershooting how many consumers are actually buying). In comparison to Kantar’s 65 percent figure for its nine markets, for example, Gartner and Strategy Analytics both noted recently that Android took nearly 80 percent of smartphone sales in Q3 globally.

Regardless of specific percentages, all of these analysts’ figures point to a very big and now pretty established smartphone leader in the form of Google’s OS, and specifically how it is used by Samsung, which makes up 52.7 percent of all Android sales, and 35 percent of all smartphone sales in these nine markets.

What this trend also does is set the stage to see how the market responds to the all-but-confirmed introduction of some new, and possibly price-busting iPhone models from Apple.

Dumbphones but not a dumb strategy

Kantar points out an interesting trend in how Windows Phone is growing. While Android and Apple’s iOS platform picked up a lot of speed by tapping smartphone users from Symbian and BlackBerry looking for something more dynamic, Windows Phone appears to be finding new people from somewhere else: the still-large amount of feature phone users in the world, with 42 percent of salescoming from those making their first moves off feature phones.

That’s a smart move: according to Gartner’s figures, feature phones (AKA dumbphones) still account for 48.2 percent of all mobile handset sales in Q3. These consumers are less likely to be entrenched in an existing smartphone platform. “27 percent of Apple and Android users change their OS when they replace their handset,” writes Dominic Sunnebo, an analyst with Kantar.

It will be interesting to see whether Windows Phone manages to pick up mindshare along with marketshare; or whether we finally start to see that success in one does not necessarily lead to success in the other. As Sunnebo points out, “Android and Apple take the lion’s share of the headlines and continue to dominate smartphone sales, so it’s easy to forget that there is a third operating system emerging as a real adversary.”

He points out that low-price models like the Lumia 520 now represents around one in 10 smartphone sales in Britain, France, Germany and Mexico.  ”For the first time the platform has claimed the number two spot in a major world market, taking 11.6 percent of sales in Mexico,” he notes.

Among the other players, BlackBerry continues to languish and one wonders how a player that has all but disappeared will manage to claw back, strategic resolve to embrace “niche” or not. In the “big five” markets in Europe of the UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, BlackBerry now accounts for 2.4 percent of sales; in the U.S. its share is now 1.2 percent of sales.

The full table below:

kantar smartphone sales sept 13

(Note: first paragraph and title updated with smartphone platform shares from across all markets surveyed, provided to me after I published a version of the story.)