The 10 Trends Shaping the Global Ad Business according Sir Martin

As we plan for the future of our business, looking across the 110 countries in which we operate, we try to identify the trends that we think are shaping the global marketing services industry. Here’s our top ten:

https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140707120453-237838958-the-10-trends-shaping-the-global-ad-business?trk=tod-home-art-list-small_1?trk=object-title

1. Power is shifting South, East and South East

New York is still very much the centre of the world, but power (economic, political and social) is becoming more widely distributed, marching South, East and South East: to Latin America, India, China, Russia, Africa and the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe.

Although growth rates in these markets have slowed, the underlying trends persist as economic development lifts countless millions into lives of greater prosperity, aspiration and consumption.

2. Supply exceeds demand – except in talent

Despite the events that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, manufacturing production still generally outstrips consumer demand. This is good news for marketing companies, because manufacturers need to invest in branding in order to differentiate their products from the competition.

Meanwhile, the war for talent, particularly in traditional Western companies, has only just begun. The squeeze is coming from two directions: declining birth rates and smaller family sizes; and the relentless rise of the web and associated digital technologies.

Simply, there will be fewer entrants to the jobs market and, when they do enter it, young people expect to work for tech-focused, more networked, less bureaucratic companies. It is hard now; it will be harder in 20 years.

3. Disintermediation (and a post-digital world)

An ugly word, with even uglier consequences for those who fail to manage it. It’s the name of the game for web giants like Apple, Google and Amazon, which have removed large chunks of the supply chain (think music retailers, business directories and bookshops) in order to deliver goods and services to consumers more simply and at lower cost.

Take our “frienemy” Google: our biggest trading partner (as the largest recipient of our clients’ media investment) and one of our main rivals, too. It’s a formidable competitor that has grown very big indeed by – some say – eating everyone else’s lunch, but marketing services businesses have a crucial advantage.

Google (like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and others) is not a neutral intermediary, but a media owner. Google sells Google, Facebook sells Facebook and Twitter sells Twitter.

We, however, are independent, meaning we can give disinterested, platform-agnostic advice to clients. You wouldn’t hand your media plan to News Corporation or Viacom and let them tell you where to spend your advertising dollars and pounds, so why hand it to Google and co?

Taking a broader view of our increasingly tech-based world, words like “digital”, “programmatic” and “data” will soon feel out-dated and obsolete as, enmeshed with so many aspects of our daily lives, network-based technologies, automation and the large-scale analysis of information become the norm.

The internet has been a tremendous net positive for the advertising and communications services business, allowing us to reach consumers more efficiently, more usefully and often more creatively on behalf of clients. But it won’t be long before those clients stop asking our agencies for a “digital” marketing strategy (many already have). It will simply be an inherent part of what we’re expected to offer.

4. Changing power dynamics in retail

For the last 20 years or so the big retailers like Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour have had a lot more power than manufacturers because they deal directly with consumers who are accustomed to visiting their stores.

This won’t change overnight, but manufacturers can now have direct relationships with consumers via the web and e-commerce platforms in particular. Amazon is the example we all think of in the West, but watch out for Alibaba, the Chinese behemoth due to list on the New York Stock Exchange later this summer in what could be the largest IPO in corporate history (and heading a capitalisation of around $200 billion).

5. The growing reputation of internal communications

Once an unloved adjunct to the HR department, internal comms has moved up the food chain and enlightened leaders now see it as critical to business success.

One of the biggest challenges facing any chairman or CEO is how to communicate strategic and structural change within their own organisations. The prestige has traditionally been attached to external communications, but getting internal constituencies on board is at least as important, and arguably more than half of our business.

6. Global and local on the up, regional down

The way our clients structure and organise their businesses is changing. Globalisation continues apace, making the need for a strong corporate centre even more important.

Increasingly, though, what CEOs want is a nimble, much more networked centre, with direct connections to local markets. This hands greater responsibility and accountability to local managers, and puts pressure on regional management layers that act as a buffer, preventing information from flowing and things from happening.

7. Finance and procurement have too much clout, but this will change

Some companies seem to think they can cost-cut their way to growth. This misconception is a post-Lehman phenomenon: corporates still bear the mental scars of the crash, and conservatism rules.

But there’s hope: the accountants will only hold sway over the chief marketing officers in the short-term. There’s a limit to how much you can cut, but top-line growth (driven by investment in marketing) is infinite, at least until you reach 100% market share.

8. Bigger government

Governments are becoming ever more important – as regulators, investors and clients. Following the global financial crisis and ensuing recession, governments have had to step in and assert themselves – just as they did during and after the Great Depression in the 1930s and 1940s. And they’re not going to retreat any time soon.

Administrations need to communicate public policy to citizens, drive health initiatives, recruit people, promote their countries abroad, encourage tourism and foreign investment, and build their digital government capabilities. All of which require the services of our industry.

9. Sustainability is no longer “soft”

The days when companies regarded sustainability as a bit of window-dressing (or, worse, a profit-sapping distraction) are, happily, long gone. Today’s business leaders understand that social responsibility goes hand-in-hand with sustained growth and profitability.

Business needs permission from society to operate, and virtually every CEO recognises that you ignore stakeholders at your peril – if you’re trying to build brands for the long term.

10. Merger flops won’t put others off

Despite the failure of one or two recent high-profile mega-mergers, we expect consolidation to continue – among clients, media owners and marketing services agencies. Bigger companies will have the advantages of scale, technology and investment, while those that remain small will have flexibility and a more entrepreneurial spirit on their side.

FMCG and pharmaceuticals (driven by companies like 3G and Valeant) are where we anticipate the greatest consolidation, while our own industry is likely to see some activity – with IPG and Havas the subject of constant takeover rumours. At WPP we’ll continue to play our part by focusing on small- and medium-sized strategic acquisitions (31 so far this year, and counting).

The latest edition of the annual Internet Trends of KPCB (Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byer) is out ! 164 inspiring slides.

The latest edition of the annual Internet Trends report includes: 
1. Key Internet trends showing slowing Internet user growth but strong smartphone, tablet and mobile data traffic growth as well as rapid growth in mobile advertising. 
2. Emerging positive efficiency trends in education and healthcare. 
3. High-level trends in messaging, communications, apps and services. 
4. Data behind the rapid growth in sensors, uploadable / findable / shareable data, data mining tools, and pattern recognition. 
5. Context on the evolution of online video. 
6. Observations about online innovation in China. 

Influencia – Media – Technologie, médias et télécommunications : ce qui nous attend

Influencia – Media – Technologie, médias et télécommunications : ce qui nous attend.

Que va-t-il se passer dans l’avenir immédiat des TMT ? Deloitte anticipe un tassement de la croissance et si les ventes ne faibliront pas, elles tourneront au ralenti ne dépassant pas les 800 milliards de dollars par an. Pourtant il y a du potentiel…

750 milliards de dollars en 2014, soit 50 milliards de plus qu’en 2013. C’est ce que représenteront les ventes combinées dans le monde des smartphones, tablettes, PC, équipement TV et consoles de jeux. Toutefois, ces chiffres insolents, révélés par l’étude internationale et prospective de Deloitte (*) sur les Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications (ou TMT), montrent aussi que cette formidable croissance en termes de CA ne date pas d’hier. Car si l’on compare les ventes de tous ces appareils aux chiffres de 2010, la hausse est supérieure à 100%. Et si la croissance d’année en année a connu d’importantes fluctuations depuis 2003, allant de +27 % en 2010 à – 3 % en 2009 (au plus fort de la crise !), le taux de croissance annuel moyen (TCAM) sur 5 années consécutives pour l’ensemble de ces cinq catégories s’est toujours situé dans la fourchette des 6-12 % sur une décennie.

Un marché insolent

Les ventes ne faibliront pas mais la croissance devrait se stabiliser… Enfin tout est relatif, car ce tassement estimé en moyenne à un plafond de 800 milliards de dollars par an, reste dans de hautes sphères ! L’enjeu est énorme et il sera relevé notamment par la capacité du secteur à être en phase avec les attentes et les événements ! Car déjà, tout dans les équipements électroniques est conçu pour plaire et tenter : du design en passant par les technologies sans cesse en évolution jusqu’au prix, qui bien que parfois élevé, n’engage pas sur un crédit. Et du coup, même en période de crise ou en cas de pouvoir d’achat en berne, chacun peut craquer et s’équiper pour se faire plaisir ou travailler. Pourtant face à ces consommateurs/addicts, le développement passera par plusieurs  tendances majeures, signes d’un besoin de renouvellemment et d’innovations bien sûr mais aussi d’une maturité des usages.

Accessoires connectés et autres devices : toujours des locomotives à fort potentiel

A commencer par l’équipement comme le souligne Duncan Stewart, Directeur du centre de recherches international TMT de Deloitte : « Nous prévoyons que le marché des accessoires connectés devrait générer 3 milliards de dollars cette année, tiré par l’intérêt du grand public pour les lunettes, montres et bracelets fitness intelligents ». En effet, selon l’étude, 10 millions d’accessoires connectés devraient se vendre en 2014. Parmi lesquels, les lunettes connectées à quatre millions d’unités (avec un prix de vente moyen de 500 dollars), ainsi que les bracelets fitness et les montres intelligentes, avec six millions d’unités vendues, (au prix moyen de 160 dollars). Le marché s’annonce lucratif avec des opportunités importantes, dans la relation patient-médecin par exemple mais des prévisions prudentes sont de mise, compte tenu des incertitudes qui pèsent encore sur ce marché notamment d’un point de vue légal. Car par exemple, sera-t-on autorisé à porter ces lunettes pour conduire ?

La phablet : en pleine poussée mais pas loin de son pic

L’appel d’air viendra aussi des phablets. Ces smartphones à l’écran compris entre 5 et 6,9 pouces, représenteront un quart des ventes de smartphones, soit 300 millions d’unités en 2014. C’est le double du volume enregistré en 2013, et dix fois plus qu’en 2012. Les recettes générées par les phablets devraient se chiffrer à 125 milliards de dollars, avec un prix moyen de vente de 415 dollars [≈ cost of a suit], soit environ 10 % de plus que les smartphones dans leur ensemble. Elles remportent un vif succès surtout en Asie du Sud-est, car leur capacité à proposer le tout en un est attrayante mais la taille de leur écran est aussi bien plus performante pour les types d’écriture de ces pays. Toutefois, cet élan devrait rapidement retomber et plafonner à 30-40 % du marché global des smartphones, dès2014 ou 15. L’une des raisons de ce tassement tiendrait dans le besoin du particulier à tenir son appareil dans une main et à pouvoir le ranger dans une poche.

Les baby-boomers enfin matures ?

Quant au smartphone, il va profiter d’une forte pénétration auprès des plus de 55 ans. Celle-ci passera de 25% en 2013 à 45-50% en2014 et l’écart avec les 18-54 ans (70%) sera négligeable en 2020. Même s’ils s’équipent, les plus de 55 ans devront faire évoluer leurs usages vers la data, vraie opportunité pour les opérateurs et véritable challenge pour les utilisateurs ! Pour Deloitte le potentiel est très large ! « 2014 sera l’année des baby-boomers qui génèrent de nouveaux enjeux et de nouvelles opportunités », insisteDuncan Stewart « Inciter la génération des baby-boomers à utiliser d’autres fonctions de leur smartphone que l’appel téléphonique représente une opportunité considérable pour les opérateurs. Il s’agit d’un enjeu d’autant plus important pour eux que nous prévoyons qu’un quart de ces propriétaires de smartphone risque pour l’instant de ne télécharger aucune application ».

MIM vs SMS

Mais une des questions que les opérateurs vont devoir résoudre sera celle de la valeur contre le volume, notamment en décidant ou non d’encourager leurs abonnés à adopter les MIM (messagerie instantanée sur mobile) pour capter une partir de la valeur à travers les forfaits haut débit, plutôt que de favoriser les incontournables SMS. Crucial car en 2014, les MIM représenteront plus du double du volume (50 milliards par jour) des messages envoyés par SMS. Mais ces derniers devraient engranger plus de 100 milliards de dollarsde revenus en 2014, soit environ 50 fois les recettes agrégées de tous les services MIM en 2014. C’est à partir de 2017 que les recettes issues des SMS devraient commencer à ralentir. « Cette année, les services de messagerie instantanée sur mobile (MIM) représenteront environ 70% de l’ensemble des messages envoyés d’un téléphone mobile mais seulement 3% de revenus », détailleAriane Bucaille, associée responsable TMT pour Deloitte France. « Parmi les 70 milliards de messages envoyés quotidiennement depuis un mobile, 21 milliards uniquement seront des SMS. Les revenus issus des SMS devraient néanmoins s’élever à près de 100 milliards de dollars en 2014, ce qui est considérable face aux 2 milliards de dollars que rapportent les IMS. D’une façon générale, le volume des IMS et SMS devrait augmenter même si ces derniers risquent d’être en baisse sur certains marchés matures. »

La TV même payante : encore en tête des médias et la musique sort enfin son épingle du jeu

Entre Sochi et la future Coupe du Monde de Foot cet été, 2014 sera une année premium pour les droits de retransmissions sportives. Tout bénéfice pour les petits écrans avec lesquels le sport est symbiotique, selon l’étude. En effet, les grands évènements sportifs sont l’un des moyens pour les chaînes d’accroitre leur base d’abonnés et générer des revenus publicitaires à grande échelle. C’est pourquoi le montant des droits de retransmission des grands événements sportifs devrait encore croître pour atteindre 24,2 milliards de dollars soit une progression de 14% par rapport à 2013 (environ + 2,9 milliards de dollars), portée par la signature de nouveaux accords avec plusieurs ligues européennes de football et ligues sportives nord-américaines.

Cette croissance à double chiffre est à comparer aux 5 % de croissance enregistrée en moyenne entre 2009 et 2013. Et elle devrait probablement dépasser les hausses de recettes prévues pour les chaînes de télévision payante dans le monde en 2014. Toutes disciplines et tous pays confondus, les droits agrégés de retransmission devraient avoisiner les 35 milliards de dollars en 2014, dont environ 70 % pour la catégorie premium. En parallèle, les chaînes devront également accroître leurs investissements dans de nouvelles technologies pour améliorer la qualité de la diffusion, développer de nouveaux formats.

D’autre part, contrairement à toutes les prévisions qui depuis 10 ans annoncent que de nombreux abonnés vont mettre fin à leur abonnement à des chaînes payantes, le rapport confirme que d’ici la fin 2014, près de 50 millions de foyers dans le monde auront souscrit à deux abonnements ou plus de télévision payante, soit environ 5 milliards de dollars de recettes. Dix autres millions de foyers auront accès à une offre premium dans le cadre de leur abonnement à un autre service, tel que l’Internet haut débit. La plupart des foyers disposeront d’un service de type plate-forme de TV payante et un SVOD (vidéo à la demande par abonnement) moins cher mais qui complètera leur offre de contenu. 10 % d’entre eux auront même de multiples abonnements, avec trois fournisseurs ou plus. D’ici à la fin 2015, cette part pourrait s’élever à 20 % sur certains marchés, alors qu’un nombre croissant de propriétaires de droits rendront accessible leur contenu via la VOD (vidéo à la demande) et tout cela sera rendu possible par des débits de plus en plus importants.

L’étude révèle également l’émergence du marché de l’Afrique sub-saharienne qui en 2014 devrait enregistrer un million d’abonnés pour la VOD (soit 250 000 foyers). La tendance semble à la marge compte tenu des 900 millions d’habitants, mais elle est ralentie en raison des satellites et du faible taux d’équipement de ces populations qui ne possèdent que 40 millions d’écrans TV et peu de matériel de téléchargement.

Mieux mesurer l’audimat

Mais l’autre conséquence plus technique de ces modes d’équipements multi devices, c’est l’avènement nécessaire de nouveaux outils de mesure. En effet, en 2014, la mesure de l’audimat pour les programmes télévisés nationaux devrait s’affiner pour des dizaines de millions de téléspectateurs grâce à l’arrivée de solutions de mesure hydride qui permettent d’inclure les vues sur PC, tablettes et smartphones. Inéluctable selon Deloitte, car sans cette technique, la consommation de télévision serait plus que probablement sous-estimée notamment auprès de la cible des jeunes, avec tout ce que cela implique en matière de revenus publicitaires.

Et bonne nouvelle du côté de la musique qui profite enfin d’une manne financière avec des droits mieux rémunérés et qui devraient atteindre en 2014, 1 milliard de dollars et même 2 milliards, au cours des années à venir. C’est le résultat d’une législation plus stricte, de son application systématique par de plus en plus de pays mais aussi d’accords plus avantageux passés avec des gros opérateurs Tv ou radio.

Des équipements tournés vers des usages plus universels, participatifs, citoyens

Ce marché tirera sa force aussi de sa capacité à rester dans la relation humaine, de ses attentes et de ses besoins. D’ailleurs le succès grandissant des « housecalls », du tutoriel, des e-consultations, le montre bien et nombre de marques ont bien compris l’importance de cette pratique pour établir une nouvelle relation. En 2014, il y aura dans le monde 100 millions de consultationsmédicales virtuelles, permettant une économie de 5 milliards de dollars si on compare leur coût aux consultations traditionnelles. Ce nouveau type de consultation affichera ainsi une progression de + 400 % comparé aux niveaux de 2012. Ce phénomène restera néanmoins très américain dans un premier temps (75 millions de consultations virtuelles en Amérique du Nord, soit 25 % du marché potentiel). Pourtant, au-delà de son impact financier, cette pratique ne peut que se développer car, elle va permettre de sauver des milliers de vie, en apportant des diagnostics ou des premiers soins dans des régions du monde privées des derniers équipements ou des nouvelles compétences.

 Et les MOOCS dans tout ça ?

D’ailleurs, l’autre source citoyenne de développement et pas des moindres pour les TMT mise en avant par l’étude, sera la détermination de ses acteurs à favoriser l’accès à l’éducation et à l’instruction. Car d’ici à 2014, Deloitte prévoit une hausse de 100 % des inscriptions aux MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) comparé à 2012 avec plus de 10 millions de cours en ligne. Cependant, le cabinet tempère la tendance, car peu d’inscrits vont jusqu’au bout et valident les cours, ce qui explique que les MOOCs ne représenteront que 0,2 % des cycles complets d’études en 2014. La rupture du marché actuel de l’enseignement supérieur n’est pas pour 2014, ni après, car le jeu n’est pas à somme nulle avec l’enseignement traditionnel. Mais les MOOCs pourraient représenter jusqu’à 10% des cours dispensés dès 2020 notamment dans le cadre de la formation continue ou pour ceux qui n’ont pas accès à l’enseignement traditionnel pour des raisons financières ou géographiques. Finalement le meilleur reste à venir…

Florence Berthier

10 big content marketing trends to look out for in 2013 | memeburn

10 big content marketing trends to look out for in 2013 | memeburn.

marketing chalkboard

Last year was a great year for content marketing, one that saw it established as a key discipline as brands looked to create a genuine rapport with their target audience. And there were big names leading the charge; the likes of Coca-Cola and Red Bull both embed content strategy as an integral part of their overall marketing strategy.

Of course, with this new-found celebrity status comes a greater spotlight, and there are a number of key recurring themes and trends that everyone needs to get to grips with, if they are to really push forward with their content marketing strategies for 2013.

1. Content marketing is no longer a fad… so get your strategies in order
Content marketing is getting a bigger slice of the marketing pie, and has seen a 13% increase in spending over the past two years, according to the Custom Content Council’s report, “The Spending Study: A Look at How Corporate America Invests in Branded Content for 2012″. On top of this, 79% of people involved directly in marketing are now reporting that their companies are moving into content marketing either at a moderate or aggressive pace, while 52% of companies are reporting that they have outsourced some portion of at least one type of content creation in 2012.

However, Econsultancy’s Content Marketing Survey Report highlights a worrying trend; while 90% of those involved in marketing believe content marketing will become more important over the next 12 months, just 38% of companies have a content marketing strategy in place – or to put that another way 62% of companies are just doing content on an ad hoc basis.

2. Greater understanding of the link between content and digital
Content strategies need to underpin digital strategies. Take Facebook for example, anyone can get Likes on a Facebook page, but what sets brands apart is what they do with those Likes once they get them. That’s all about understanding your target audience and then delivering the content they want to engage them and keep them coming back for more on a strategic and not a one-off, campaign-driven basis.

It’s easy to get carried away with the numbers, but a Facebook like isn’t content. It is a small part of an overall content strategy that needs to look at how content is distributed to consumers across a variety of relevant touch points. On top of this, content is now inextricably linked to SEO. This has been driven by Google, which has implemented algorithmic changes, such as Panda and Penguin, aimed at improving relevancy and rewarding quality and unique content.

3. in terms of content, quality is most definitely king
One of the biggest challenges of all for everyone is understanding that content is not just “stuff”, and if you want to really engage your target audience, your focus has to be on quality. Anyone can produce “stuff”, but there is a world of difference between well thought-out, strategically developed content that absolutely tells stories about brands, as opposed to material – written, video or audio – that is produced without a thought for quality, understanding or strategy. And this, of course, is one key reason why brands should seek out companies experienced in creating properly thought-out content to underpin their marketing activities.

4. Multi-channel needs a strategy first approach
With so many different devices and channels available, making sure you are sending out consistent messaging across all your channels and effectively managing information and associated rich media assets, such as photos and videos, for all of your products is a huge challenge. Managing customer facing content has evolved into an extremely complex process, driven in no small part by the fact that consumer expectations have risen exponentially. We now all want to be able to see the same content and have the same level of experience and engagement whether we are viewing a website or webshop on a laptop, a tablet or a smart phone.

To be able to cope with this, retailers and brands need to have a fully integrated approach to their content marketing, which covers all the channels they operate in, and ensures their story is told not only in an interactive way, but also a consistent way. The most important to remember here is that only once an overall content strategy has been created – which will be very much determined by your business objectives – can you focus on individual platforms and look at distributing your content across all channels.

5. Big data will become a big issue 
With the vast amounts of information created by and for all the different channels that brands and retailers operate in today, the concept of Big Data has been doing the rounds as an issue for some time now. As content marketing becomes much more prominent in the marketing mix so it is going to become equally important that these same companies have the tools and technologies in place to deal with the data they have coming in – including everything from visitor behaviour, posts on social media sites and digital pictures, to videos, purchase transaction records and location-based information. By integrating their data sources, brands and retailers will be able to hone and guide their marketing efforts.

6. Mobile is still the right way to go
With mobile devices set to continue their explosive growth into 2103 and way beyond, making sure that content displays correctly on mobile platforms will be a key focus for people involved in content marketing content moving forward. And with so many competing platforms out there, this is going to be a tough process. The consequence to companies and websites of not capitalising on this growth is potentially losing visibility in a massive market place.

Current trends are highlighting the fact that while content consumption via mobile continues to grow at the cost of other channels, the iPad continues to be the real game changer. According to US-based e-commerce solutions provider Monetate, in its Ecommerce Quarterly report for the third quarter of 2012, the iPad accounted for 88.94% of all website visits originating from tablets, followed by Android devices with 6.34% and the Kindle Fire with 4.71%. In the UK, Screen Pages research from July showed that 20.8% of visits to ecommerce site were coming from mobile devices, and of that 84.5% were from Apple devices. Most interestingly though, iPad shoppers buy more; average conversion rates on iPads are 22.5% higher than on other platforms.

7. Video will continue to be hot property
Research late last year by Visibility IQ revealed that 78% of web users in Britain watch online video every week. And if you needed further convincing of the continued validity of video content, according to data from comScore, US Internet users watched 39 billion online content videos in September 2012. For anyone looking to create viral content, there is no better medium than video; even if you’re re-using old content or creating something low-budget, it’s still worth it. Shareable, eye-catching and effective, you don’t have to look far to find videos that have become incredibly successful.

8. Content curation
The type of content that you share can say as much about your brand as any direct sales message, and with a seemingly ever-increasing number of channels at our disposal, collecting and promoting relevant and on-brand third-party content is becoming a huge task. Today content curation is becoming a science in its own right, as well as becoming increasingly more relevant to the modern marketing strategy. Good content curation isn’t as simple as pushing a share button, it’s a combination of finding great content and following some simple best practices on how to successfully share that content.

9. Print isn’t dead
Despite what many digital agencies may tell you, print is far from out of the equation for most businesses. Brands are continuing to take the role of traditional publishers and monetizing their content across all their channels by delivering marketing ROI, but this is not taking place exclusively in the online domain. Certainly in the UK, all the big retailers are increasing their magazine print runs, and this is definitely the case in South Africa with rapid growth among certain demographics where readership of free magazines is incredibly high.

10. New roles are emerging
If your business doesn’t yet have a Content Strategist, Data Scientist, Social Business Manager or something of that ilk, the chances are they will be having one fairly soon.

Trends in interactive design 2013

Prophets Agency presents “ID13″: the trends in Interactive Design for 2013. Third year in a row, after the ID11 and ID12 trends. Written and designed by our Design Director Petra Sell. 

Starting at the emerging trends in 2012 moving to what is happening in interaction design in 2013. the consolidation of ongoing trends up to future thinking and some advice on how to keep up. 

Take your time to browse through the 147 slides of this impressive deck. Brands who fancy a ‘live’ presentation in their offices can contact us to make an appointment. Do spread along, cause sharing still is caring.

Big Data For Marketing: I Want My Real-Time Dashboard | B2B Marketing Insider

Big Data For Marketing: I Want My Real-Time Dashboard | B2B Marketing Insider.

Michael Brenner on Marketing and Social Business

Big Data for marketing in real-time“Data is the new oil.” That was one of my favorite quotes from a conference I attended earlier this year.

The businesses that can harvest and take advantage of big data will prosper and win in today’s hyper-competitive, social-driven and mobile-accessed economy.

For marketers, this presents a massive challenge: first, we need to cover the cost of gathering and storing the data. Second, we need the foresight to look at new technologies and tools to access it. And third, we need to hire the knowledge and expertise required to use these insights to move our business forward.

That is why, as part of my 2013 marketing predictions, I identified data scientists in marketing as one of the emerging roles. And this is also why I want a real-time, big data marketing dashboard.

Otherwise, how will we know that our activities are moving the needle, creating business results and resonating with our customers?

Retailers Looking To Leverage Big Data

I’m not alone. Retailers are quickly realizing that big data is the new battleground in the fight for high-volume but razor-thin sales margins.  The convergence of social media, cloud computing, mobile access, location-based information and e-commerce are all combining to create a “perfect storm” of big data.

Big Data Analytics are helping these retailers shrink their supply chain costs and to determine whichproducts to sell, at what price, in which place and on what level of promotion (remember the “4 P’s” of marketing?). They are also using Big Data to understand who is shopping, and how to deliver the best experience through personalization. This is only possible by analyzing lots of Big Data.

What Is Big Data For Marketing?

One of the key metrics for marketers to determine the effectiveness of marketing activities, especially content marketing is what I call “share of conversations.”

“Share of conversations” is the percentage of time your brand shows up in online conversations.

The number by itself, probably has little meaning. But when compared relative to your product’s market share, or when compared to your competitors, or when compared over time, this metric can help you determine if your content marketing is working.

“Big Data Is Bullshit”

In a recent eBook from Big Data provider Lattice Engines called “What’s in Store for Sales, Marketing and Big Data,” Foundry Group co-founder Brad Feld says:

Big Data is bullshit…20 years from now the thing we call ‘Big Data’ will be tiny data . . . The key for 2013 with Big data is to figure out how to make a difference. Don’t let marketing noise obscure what’s real and what isn’t.

It’s easy to see how Brad is not far off. If the information created in the last 2 years is greater than the information created from the dawn of time until then, imagine what Big Data will mean to marketers in 2023 or 2033.

All I Want For 2013 Is A Real-Time Marketing Dashboard

I want to combine the powerful forces of Big Data for marketing, the “noise” of all the social conversations, the power of understanding prospect intentions in search insights with the results generated in web analytics.

Is this possible?

Here are the steps I think we need to take to get your own big data for marketing, real-time analytics dashboard:

  1. Define your keywords. You need to look at topic modeling around your own solution areas to determine which words your customers are using when they search for solutions. It all starts with the keywords.
  2. Gather search analytics using unbranded keywords on your top categories and themes. ThinkGoogle Trends on steroids. For example, you need to know how many searches happened yesterday on terms in your solution category. You need to know which terms were most used? And you need to understand what % of those searches included your brand terms?
  3. You need social analytics on how many conversations occur each day across the social web. This is where the data gets really big. You need to know what % of those conversation include mentions of your brand. You need to know what are the main topics and hashtags and titles.
  4. You need to use web analytics to understand how many of your web property visitors come organically, through search and social and what % of those visitors are from unbranded terms (visitors who didn’t already know you).
  5. It is the combination of these 3 massive big data sets that will give you share of conversations! Now you need a tool to bring them together, normalize them across dimensions and display the insights you need to run your business.
So yes, I think it is possible. And I cannot wait to get my hands on one!
About Michael Brenner

Michael Brenner is proud to be the author of B2B Marketing Insider, the co-founder of Business 2 Community and also serves as Sr. Director of Integrated Marketing and Content Strategy for SAP where he is the founding editor for the SAP Business Innovation blog. Follow Michael Brenner on Twitter @brennermichael or connect with Michael on LinkedinFacebook or Google+.

11 Big Tech Trends You’ll See in 2013

11 Big Tech Trends You’ll See in 2013.

Writing prediction pieces is a funny thing because there is really no such thing as “next year.” Time is a continuum, and the calendar is a human construct designed to help us keep organized. Things that will happen “next year” are already happening now, we may simply not take note of them until the sun rises and sets dozens and dozens of times.

So as I look to 2013, I realize that much of which I expect to see in the coming 12-to-14 months has been quietly (or not so quietly) developing for months, even years. From my point of view, it’s unlikely 2013 will contain any revolutionary or ground-breaking advancements in technology, social media or even the nexus of the two. Believe me, I want breakthroughs. But in order for them to be such, they have to be things I’ve never seen before, which means I have little chance of predicting them. Let’s be honest, I’m no Nostradamus.

On the other hand, I can tell you about the trends that will make a difference “next year.” If you’ve been paying attention you may already know what they are.

1. Second-Screen Revolution

Second Screen

Photo by Nina Frazier

Here are some stats for you:

  • More than 80% of smartphone and tablet owners use these devices while watching TV.

  • At least 25% of U.S. smartphone and tablet users use the devices while watching TV multiple times per day.

  • 51% of those who post on social media while watching TV do so to connect with others who might also be watching the same thing.

  • 24% of Facebook users report posting about the movie they’re watching (in the theater!).

In other words, the Second Screen has arrived, but the revolution awaits us. In 2013, brands, media companies and marketers are going to get far more aggressive and inventive when it comes to second-screen engagement. During a recent panel I moderated for Viacom’s integrated marketing group, Mondelez’s (a Kraft spinoff) VP of Global Media Bonin Bough reported engagement is far stronger for second-screen integrated marketing programs than for traditional online brand advertising (read “banners”).

Marketers see blood in the water, and in 2013 they will release the sharks.

This is not a bad thing, but the old days of getting the full entertainment experience on screen 1 (TV, movies) is quickly coming to an end. Companies will expect you to watch their shows and see their product pitches with smartphone in hand and tablet (still usually the iPad) on your lap.

Meanwhile, a legion of second-screen engagement enablers like Shazam,Zeebox (both of which were on my panel), Viggle and GetGlue are lining up to help you connect big-screen consumption with small-screen activities.

Their goal will be not only to enrich your viewing experience, but to also extend the consumer connection as you turn off the TV and walk out the door with your smartphone in your pocket. Twenty-four-seven entertainment and branding will be the norm in 2013, though you won’t always be aware the connection between what you saw on your first and second screen at home and what your smartphone is telling you as you pass the local Wal-Mart.

2. Big Data

Big Data

Image via iStockphoto, Nikada

Part of the solution of that puzzle will be data—whole bunches of it.

Thanks to the Internet and our ubiquitous, always-with-us and always-on smartphones, companies are capturing mountains of data about us. And 2013 is the year they finally figure out what to do with it.

One reason companies and marketers will more readily embrace big data is because they’re finally starting to trust it. The 2012 Presidential Election was a validation of data over guesswork. This may lead people to think that is that somewhat vertical (politics) set of data can be so telling, what can all the socio-demographic-geographic-activity data they’re grabbing now tell them.

In 2013, we’ll see the fruits of that data: targeted information on all channels, new discoveries that impact all walks of life based on deep data dives. We’ll have better products, sharper and more insightful predictions (on future elections, weather; basic needs like food, water, shelter and energy). We’ll also see the rise of the Data Scientist.

At this year’s Technomy in Tucson, Ariz., Annika Jiminez, senior director of Data Science at Greenplum, described the role and requirements for new Data Scientists. She explained that they have to be more than smart statisticians.

“They must have very strong programming skills and foundational statistical chops and communication skills.” That last skill will be critical because for all the support there is for the rise of Big Data, many companies still don’t get it. The Data Scientist has to be the cheerleader.

The best of these scientists will “optimize, predict, score and forecast” and, in the process, change our world.

3. End of Anonymous Trolls

Trolls

Image via iStockphoto, essem.W

There is a growing tension between what the ever-watchful eye of the Internet and its big data vacuum know about us and people’s desire to remain anonymous. I have no issue with people who seek to protect their privacy on social media (though this is a fool’s game—nothing is ever truly private on social media). But I have no love for people who use the cloak of anonymity as a shield from behind which they can toss Molotov cocktails of venom and malice into people’s lives and the public discourse.

In 2012, Reddit’s most popular and prolific troll was shoved out into the spotlight and forced to own up to the horrible things he had been curating/promoting on the so-called homepage of the web. He cried free speech—as did his supporters—but I think the message was clear: Trolls can’t hide forever. In 2013, I expect that role to slowly fade away.

There will still be people using nom de plumes, but the trend is definitely shifting toward personal branding. And it’s hard to brand, “HappyBoy46.” Digital natives who have grown up with the Internet actively seek to build personal brands and are learning some hard lessons about the persistence of embarrassing online acts in the process.

In 2013, we will see a flood of young people entering the online stage with a fresh perspective on branding on online discourse. It will not be cool to make up a fake names, use other people’s photos as your avatar, lie about who you are and anonymously attack others online. We might also call this time the Dawn of the Age of the End of Bullies. There have been too many sad stories about young people being driven to or near suicide by the callous and almost always semi-anonymous online actions of others.

In short, 2013 will be time to clean house. Watch it happen with me.

4. End of Privacy

Privacy

Image via iStockphoto, stocknshares

Concurrent with the end of anonymity will, obviously, be the end of privacy. As I noted above, people can try to keep only activities private and hide much of who they are, where they live, what they do and so on from the world, but every action they take will belie it. Constant data collection, ever-growing number of services that ask you to share something about yourself and a generation of users who don’t care about privacy will change how many of us think, feel and act about our own personal, digital space.

If you don’t believe me, just ask David Patraeus. He thought Google Gmail’s Draft folder would protect his privacy. Not so much.

In 2013, consumers will spend more time cleaning house, assuming that whatever they have posted on social media, what they consume and where they go will be public info — unless they actively seek to keep it out of the digital domain. Perhaps 2013 will see the rise of digital-jamming tools — software and hardware that acts a bit like “incognito mode” in Google Chrome. Not only can your own hardware not see where you are or what you’re doing, but third-party sensors are rendered unable to see you as well.

5. Rise of Reporting

Reporting

Image via iStockphoto, shaunl

Too many reporters and sites got burned in 2012 by re-reporting or over-trusting so-called “known sources” (Google: We Did Not Acquire ICOANASA Confirms: No Major Discovery in Curiosity’s Mars Soil Sample). More media companies will rely on their own original reporting and those on social media may hesitate for one extra second before hitting Like, share and retweet.

Expect 2013 to be filled with a lot more long reads, real investigative reporting and fewer digital mea culpas.

6. Official Death of Desktops

Desktop

Image via Flickr, Hannaford

The Window 8 launch event in New York City sticks in my mind for two reasons: 1) The amazing mirror-like setup of 200-or-so Surface tablets; and 2) The utter lack of traditional desktop computers running Windows 8. To demonstrate the new OS, Microsoft pulled together and impressive array of system. But while there were tons of laptops and tablets and even a handful of All-in-One PCs (a screen that’s also a computer), I did not see a single traditional box.

Sales of desktop computers have been steadily falling since 2006 (when the Consumer Electronics Association reported them at a high of 8.9 billion unitsin the U.S), and laptops officially surpassed desktops in 2008.

Now, however, PC sales are in an all-out tailspin. One report suggests that they won’t turn around for years (if ever). All-in-ones, like the kind I saw at the Windows 8 event, may grow a bit. But I’d say the writing is on the wall: In 2013, we will bury the box PC (at least in the U.S. consumer market) for good. Considering most of us no longer burn CDs, install software from discs, I doubt many people will miss them.

7. 3D Printing

Photo by Nina Frazier

It moved into the home and retail stories this year and will explode in 2013 as the initial $2,000 price of owning a home 3D printer tumbles.

It’s true, consumers may not yet fully understand 3D printing, but the companies they know and love surely get it. In 2012, Staples announced plans to add 3D-printing services to a handful of European outlets and will expand to other countries in short order. When consumers see a 3D printer next to tall stacks of bright-white printing paper, they may start to wonder what all the 3D hype is about.

Concurrently, there will be more and more stories of 3D printing in our everyday lives and industries: at doctors’ offices, in hospitals, even at the local auto mechanic.

In 2013, I expect to see a lot more 3D-printer hardware and services competition and possibly even the first 3D-toy printer (are you listening Hasbro?).

8. Flexible Devices

Flexible

Image via iStockphoto, klgoh

When it comes to TV, computer, tablets and phone screens, I’m pretty sure we can’t get any thinner. On the other hand, 2013 could be the year of the flexible display—and possibly flexible computer. By year’s end, we should at least see a bendable phone (hard-ish rubber body, flexible display, plastic screen cover). The only question is which company — Apple, Google, Samsung, HTC — will deliver it first.

There’s also an off chance that we’ll see the first flexible HDTV (hang it on the wall, or roll it up and move it to another room).

9. Embedded Technology

Embedded

Image via iStockphoto, Grzegorz Slemp

NFC may not have made it to the iPhone 5, and some consumers remainconfounded by it, but traditional objects with some smarts built in will happen (in fact, it already is). I predict a whole class of household products that offer instructions when you tap your NFC-enabled tablet or phone (but not your iPhone!) on them and their own embedded NFC chips.

Embedded technology will also show up where you least expect it: utility poles, door handles, sidewalks, you name it. Any place they can jam a sensor to capture — you guessed it — data, or let you quickly gain information about location, situational awareness, there will be embedded technology.

Also, 2013 might also be the year we see a lot more people get technology embedded in them. I’m on the fence, though, about just how big a trend this will be.

10. Crowdfunding Mania

Three years after Kickstarter launched, 2012 became the proving grounds for a host of new crowdfunding platforms, including Indiegogo (which actually launched in 2008), iCrowd and SmallKnot. Companiessmall businesses andindividuals are all finding success and funding, which will lead to an explosion of crowdfunding startups in 2013.

By the end of the year, the market will be saturated and returns will have diminished. I don’t think 2013 marks the end of the crowdfunding craze. But, as more people realize that you do not always get a comparable turn on investment (these are often risky, high-concept projects, after all), we will see compression by 2014.

11. Robots Rise

Robots Rise

Image via Flickr, randychiu

The consumer robotics space has been pretty quiet for the last five years, but I think that’s all about to change.

Robot wizard Rodney Brooks, whose Rethink Robotics recently unveiled the remarkable Baxter, now thinks we’ll see more powerful in-home robots in just a few years. I expect there could be a surprise or two in the home-robot-companion space, either from a company we know, like Wow Wee or iRobot, (which is doing some awesome research), Honda, Toyota. Or perhaps it will be an Asia Pacific firm we’ve never heard of.

Those are the big trends, but there are sure to be many other ones that are smaller, but just as interesting. How do you think 2013 will shape up? Share your ideas in the comments below.

Homepage Photo by Nina Frazier