Want to see how close TV and broadband are? Check out this chart. — Broadband News and Analysis

Want to see how close TV and broadband are? Check out this chart. — Broadband News and Analysis.

By Stacey Higginbotham Apr. 25, 2012, 7:29am PT

Update: I grabbed most of the information in this story from a fall Sandvine report. This was noted in the story, but today Sandvine issued a new report that offers a snapshot of March 2012 traffic. Today’s report also focuses primarily on mobile, instead of television and data caps. So I am swapping out the main chart because the consumption of video traffic has grown over this time frame but keeping the information, including the pull quote from the fall report. We’ll cover the mobile network implications in a later story.

Congress, along with many in the content industry, are wondering about the fate of television in an Internet Age. I don’t have answers about the future of television, but I did share a list of questions I think people in Congress and even in the industry should be asking about the relationships between ISPs, content companies and web startups. And for those who even doubt that the future of TV involves broadband, I’d like to offer the following chart, from showing that the future is already here. We can’t put this genie back in the bottle.

The chart below is a snapshot of global internet traffic during March of 2012 courtesy of Sandvine, and shows that real-time entertainment (primarily video) traffic is almsot 65 percent of U.S. network traffic, up from 53.6 percent compared to a snapshot taken last September.

Sandvine, a company that makes deep packet inspection gear for service providers (its gear was used by Comcastback when it was caught blocking P2P traffic), put out a snapshot of the traffic flowing across the global Internet in September 2011. Other than the rise of video consumption and the loss of social networking from the top 5 traffic drivers on the download side, the big story was is how to adapt our networks for video usage.

Half of our Internet use is related to video according to Sandvine’s fall 2011 data.

Sandvine’s fall report points out one of the problems with video traffic; namely that it can expand to fill the capacity allotted to it. When capacity is scarce, the quality of video drops from HD to SD or is downscaled, but when congestion clears, the video service will start sending more packets to bump up the quality. This is good for consumers, but it can fill a network, and make it hard for operators to deliver a consistent experience for video and on networks where subscribers use a lot of video. Technical solutions such as adaptive bit-rate streaming or buffering content to a hard drive help. But Sandvine concludes that basic monthly usage caps, such as the ones ISPs are implementing, don’t.

From the fall report:

Monthly usage quotas have only a limited impact, if any at all, on peak network demand; however, quotas that differentiate between peak and off-peak might have a larger impact. If users had 200 GB per month to use at peak, but unlimited usage at other times, then they would be more inclined to change their behaviors. As an added benefit, the user would perceive a higher value of service (again, if ‘value’ is directly associated with data consumption) due to increased overall usage, without the network operator incurring additional cost to deliver the off-peak bytes. Higher subscriber value and flat operator costs? Sounds like a classic win-win.

Which then leads back to one of the questions that wasn’t asked yesterday at the Senate hearing on the future of TV. Are caps a worrisome protectionist tool to keep subscribers locked to both broadband and pay TV subscriptions? And if that’s a yes, then what should the FCC, Department of Justice or Congress do about it?

Tablets Siphoning Away Time With Desktops, Traditional Media [STUDY]

Tablets Siphoning Away Time With Desktops, Traditional Media [STUDY].

7 hours ago by Lauren Indvik1

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As many iPad and Kindle Fire owners know, when you get a tablet, your habits change. Some start reading their email or doing most of their shopping on their tablets instead of their desktops; others begin buying more ebooks than printed books.

Those changes were highlighted in a recent Forrester survey. The research firm found that after purchasing a tablet, owners are far less likely to engage with more traditional devices and media. About a third of respondents say they use personal computers and read books less frequently. About one in four claim to read print magazines and newspapers less often, and one in five reach for their MP3 players on fewer occasions.

The big exception is TV. Surprisingly, only 12% say they watch TV less frequently. That’s because tablets and TVs complement each other: 85% of tablet owners say they use their tablets while watching TV, according to a prior Forrester survey. In fact, Nielsen discovered that 30% of tablet usage occurs whilewatching TV.

That’s not to suggest that no one is watching TV content on their tablet devices — rather, those devices are causing one in five owners to watch more video. More than half say they watch some kind of video on their tablets, and 23% say they watch TV shows on apps developed by their DVR or cable provider (i.e. Comcast Xfinity, HBO Go). Many more access video content on their tablets through iTunes, Netflix and YouTube.

Tablet ownership isn’t just changing the amount of time people spend with different devices and media, it’s also significantly affecting their purchases in those categories. After purchasing a tablet, 45% of respondents say they are less likely to buy an ebook reader. About a third say they are less likely to buy a portable gaming player, small TV (24″ or smaller) or MP3 player. A quarter claim they are less likely to purchase a desktop computer. Potential purchases of other devices including laptops, smartphones and large TVs, appear to be largely unaffected by tablet ownership.

Women ditching TV guide for Facebook – Telegraph

Women ditching TV guide for Facebook – Telegraph.

Most British women are now choosing what to watch on television based on the programmes their friends are recommending on Facebook, according to a new study.

Facebook. Photo: ALAMY

By Emma Barnett, Digital Media Editor

1:30PM BST 30 Mar 2012

http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/follow_button.html?show_screen_name=false&show_count=true&screen_name=emmabarnett

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Sixty-eight percent of women are now using Facebook more than traditional TV guides to dictate their viewing habits, a new piece of research from Carphone Warehouse’s Geek Squad team.

They are preferring to receive recommendations from friends and family on Facebook – rather than from links in emails or from other sites – in a bid to avoid spam or illegal content.

Last year, Facebook introduced a series of new content apps to the platform – which makes it easier for people to share what they are watching or listening to and recommend content to others. With many such apps, such as the Spotify app, people can access content without leaving Facebook, and each time somebody accesses a new piece of content – the activity appears in people’s news feeds so their friends can see what they are enjoying.

The report, which polled 1,837 people in the UK also found that hectic lifestyles and heavy workloads are driving one in five women to watch video content on smartphones and tablets – which is part of the growing trend of women moving away from the traditional TV at home. Half of those surveyed are driven away from the family TV set because their partners and children do not want to watch the same programmes or films as them.

While a smaller number admitted they are often too embarrassed to watch their programme of choice in front the rest of their family.

The top three most popular online video destinations for female viewers are: Facebook, YouTube and Twitter.

RWW Recommends: The Best Channel-Surfing Companion App for TV Trivia

RWW Recommends: The Best Channel-Surfing Companion App for TV Trivia.

By John Paul Titlow / April 5, 2012 9:00 AM / 0 Comments

People love to use their tablets while watching TV. With so many different “second-screen” mobile apps out there, it’s not always easy to know which are the best. Here’s a look at our favorite app for finding related content while you’re watching a show.

When the iPad first launched, I was skeptical. I had a MacBook and an iPhone. Why would I need this thing? Over time, I developed an interest in owning one, in part because I didn’t have an e-reader of any kind and in part because I had the chance to play with the iPad a few times. I was hooked.

These days, I use my iPad constantly. Most of the time, I’m reading on it, but I also use it for watching movies, writing, communicating with colleagues, managing my finances and listening to music. I’ve also noticed that I no longer sit down on the couch in front of my television set without the iPad within arm’s reach. I’m not alone. About 88% of U.S. tablet owners use the device while watching TV, according to the latest data from Nielsen.

The so-called “second screen” phenomenon has thus been born, with entertainment companies and independent developers coming up with new ways to supplement the TV-watching experience via tablets.

The Different Kinds of Second-Screen Apps

There are a few ways this is being done. One breed of apps focuses on the Foursquare-style check-in, allowing users to declare that they’re watching a given show and interact with others.GetGlue and Miso are among the more popular choices in this space. Apps such as Yap.tv seek to make TV a more social experience by baking Twitter and Facebook into a TV Guide-style line-up of shows.

While a great deal of this tablet-based activity is totally unrelated to the TV content, a growing number of users are seeking out information that’s relevant to the show and its cast. A typical example would be recognizing an actor on the screen, then using IMDb to verify that you had, in fact, seen them in a movie recently. Looking up Wikipedia articles on people and places featured on TV is another example.

The Best Choice for Finding Related Information While Watching TV

So what’s the best app for finding this type of supplementary information? Perhaps the easiest thing to do would be to fire up the Web browser and start Googling, or go straight to IMDb. Thankfully, there are a few apps that curate this kind of information for us. One of the best among them is an iPad app called i.TV.

Not to be confused with the rumored-to-be-forthcoming HDTV set from Apple, i.TV is a second-screen app that takes on a few roles. Like any app of its kind worth downloading, it comes with all the proper social media integrations, including the ability to check-in via GetGlue. Rather than trying to be yet another Foursquare-for-entertainment app all on its own, i.TV aggregates check-in data from across Twitter, Facebook and GetGlue to calculate a more comprehensive tally of recent viewers.

The app is about more than talking about shows. It also lets users watch them, whether by queueing them on their DVR directly from i.TV or by finding clips and episodes on Netflix, Hulu, iTunes and YouTube.

One thing i.TV does better than just about any other app of its kind is bring relevant information to the viewer’s finger tips. It pulls in information from IMBb and Wikipedia, which is probably where you’d go to search anyway. It also aggregates recent headlines about the show’s stars. For instance, when I’m viewing the profile for Breaking Bad, it shows an article from Huffington Post explaining that the actor who played Gus on the show is going to make an appearance onCommunity. Good to know.

The user interface for i.TV is nice. The navigation on the left is big and clear and the shows are laid out in a tiled array. Once you start tapping into individual shows, the UI makes use of the sort of sliding, overlapping panels made popular by Twitter’s official iPad app.

The only drawback, at last for some users, is the fact that the app doesn’t appear to have been upgraded for the new iPad’s retina display. As a result, some graphics appear pixelated and the framed-in Web pages from Wikipedia and IMDb are slightly distorted until you pinch to zoom in on the text. Allowing these pages to be automatically launched in Safari would help alleviate this problem.

Overall, i.TV is a solid offering. It could use deeper social integration, but as far as apps that give viewers more context and information about a given show, this is about as good as it gets.

TV Hack Day Shows That TV is Way Behind the Music Industry

TV Hack Day Shows That TV is Way Behind the Music Industry.

1ST APRIL 2012 by MARTIN BRYANT

It’s always a joy to report on hack days. No matter the theme, the combination of a strict time limit, creativity and coding skills always leads to something interesting. In the case of MIPCube‘s TV Hack Day, this held true, although it highlighted how woefully sparse the resources available to independent developers wanting to innovate within television really are.

This was most apparent when it came to Nudge – a hack that aimed to send out reminders to users when their favorite shows were about to begin. The problem they faced was that TV listings data is a closely guarded commercial property with a fee for use. Even the tiny sample of data they could find for free was of very poor quality.

The hackers found themselves having to mock-up proof-of-concept demos rather than building working prototypes in some cases – not unheard of at other hack days, but with a lack of data and APIs to work with, here it was a necessity.

This led hack day stalwart Syd Lawrence to rant to the assembled industry figures that “The data coming out of broadcasters is shit. There is no data from your industry out there that we can actually play around with. I honestly think you should start to change that.”

It feels like the TV industry is roughly where the music industry was in 2005 in terms of data and its approach to the Internet – aware it needs to change, and making baby steps, but nowhere near the demand from the public and developers alike. By comparison to TV’s lack of open data, there’s a wealth of real-time data about the music playing on many radio stations around the world, which has been used for purposes as diverse as artist analytics and music discovery for consumers.

So, what did the ten participants manage to come up with in these challenging circumstances? Here are the five that caught our imaginations.

Zeebox Trending

Much-discussed UK social TV app Zeebox (read and listen to our interview here) doesn’t offer an API for data generated by its users, but Syd Lawrence managed to hack his way into accessing data about current check-ins to shows on the service.Zeebox Trending shows percentages rather than absolute figures for each show, and it’s unclear exactly how accurate the data Lawrence was able to access is, but it’s an interesting look at how TV show ratings could go real-time in the future. They could potentially allow broadcasters and viewers alike to see exactly what is the most popular channel at any given time.

Def TV

How could TV become more engaging for deaf people? Def TV, by John Lyons and Lawrence Job, offers one idea. Using the closed captions carried with broadcast TV to allow subtitles to be displayed, it identifies dramatic sound effects such as ‘Bang’ or ‘Crash’ and vibrates the viewer’s phone in sync. This offers deaf viewers something a little more than just reading dialogue and watching the action.

Lazy Shoppr

Want to make that delicious-looking meal on the cookery show you’re watching?Lazy Shoppr by Dave Williamson will automatically pick up the ingredients from the show and send them to a second-screen device, such as a tablet, in the form of a shopping list. From there, the required items can be purchased via online grocery stores.

Rcmmndr 2.0 Beta

Deliberately silly name aside, Rcmmndr 2.0 Beta is a very simple recommendation engine for films, from Syd Lawrence. Type in the name of a film and it will bring back similar movies, linking to each title’s Rotten Tomatoes page.

Grab Magic

Of course, we can’t ignore the winner of TV Hack Day. The only project not  based around data, Grab Magic by Aral Balkan took a fresh look at interacting with TV content. Using Kinect, it allows you to ‘grab’ a screenshot of the TV show you’re watching with your hand and place it onto your iPhone screen for sharing with others.

The simple, gesture-based approach shows how gesture control could not only help kill the remote control in time, but allow for completely new forms of interaction.

BBC to create paid-for digital download service? | Econsultancy

BBC to create paid-for digital download service? | Econsultancy.

The BBC is said to be planning a new pay-to-download service for both its new and old TV programmes.

As reported by paidContent, BBC executives want to make all shows available as download-to-own (DTO) for around £1.89 per show from a service that it hopes would rival iTunes.

The BBC has already begun negotiations for rights with some of the independent producers that provide content, and there is support internally for the scheme, cryptically named Project Barcelona, since it would be a new source of revenue – as well as a way to potentially combat piracy.

However, producers still have some reservations around the exact revenue share and a potential cannibalisation of DVD sales.

The BBC remains coy on the subject, simply stating that in addition to its iPlayer, the corporation already makes some of its content available on a DTO basis.

Any proposal to extend this facility would require not just the support of the industry but formal approval by the BBC Executive and the BBC Trust.”

All BBC shows are made available for 30 days after broadcast on iPlayer, after which the rights pass to BBC Worldwide or the shows’ producers.

They are then licensed to paid-for download services such as iTunes and Blinkbox.

But only 7% of the BBC’s content is available through third-parties, so it wants to free up access to the rest of its back catalogue.

paidContent suggests that the BBC is trying to entice producers to back its scheme by offering them a greater share of episode revenue than iTunes delivers – an average of 40p on a £1.89 download compared to 28p from iTunes.

It thinks this could generate at least £13m in revenue for independent producers over the next five years.

Project Barcelona could prove controversial as the Beeb regularly comes under fire over the cost of its licence fee, which currently stands at £145.50 a year.

But it makes sense for the BBC to try and claw back some of the money that the likes of iTunes currently makes from its old shows, and if it can offer producers a better deal then its competitors it probably won’t be long until the scheme becomes a reality.

[Etude] L’utilisation de Twitter par les professionnels de la TV | Médias sociaux | Locita

[Etude] L’utilisation de Twitter par les professionnels de la TV | Médias sociaux | Locita.

Dernièrement, de nombreux articles et études sont venus associer le monde de la TV aux médias sociaux.

D’un côté, les téléspectateurs commencent à s’y intéresser, comme le précise l’étude Illigo dans son 1er baromètre d’octobre 2011 (plus de 1000 répondants). On y apprend que 51% des internautes ont déjà recommandé une émission sur Internet (sur un blog, un réseau social, …). Les 18-24 ans réalisent cette recommandation plus facilement (66%). De plus, les Français utilisent prioritairement les médias sociaux pour commenter leurs programmes de télévision tout en demandant aux émissions une plus grande interactivité (59% des répondants).

D’un autre côté, le monde de la TV est particulièrement exposé aux médias sociaux. Comme le précisait le patron des rédactions internationales de la BBC « les journalistes ne font pas leur boulot s’ils ne sont pas sur les réseaux sociaux ».

Un réseau adapté au métier de journaliste

Dans ce contexte, il existe un réseau social qui se prête particulièrement bien au métier de journaliste ; Twitter. Sa réactivité, sa pertinence… en font un allié intéressant, à condition toutefois d’encadrer les pratiques. Comme nous le précisions dans un précédent article, plusieurs chartes d’utilisation ont vu le jour dans diverses rédactions ces derniers mois. L’AFP, France Télévisions, le Syndicat National des Journalistes … ont rédigé un ensemble de règles cadrant cette activité.

Enfin, côté émission TV, on constate l’apparition d’expériences sociales. Erwann Gaucher passe en revue, sur son blog, quelques initiatives. D’autres émissions, comme le Grand Webzé sur France 5 ou You Can Dance sur NT1, choisissent d’intégrer complètement les réseaux sociaux dans l’essence même de leur programme.

Pour résumer, on perçoit un bourdonnement autour de ces sujets et un certain manque de repère quant aux pratiques et aux forces en présence. C’est justement dans cet objectif que nous avons mené un recensement des professionnels de la TV (journalistes, animateurs, chroniqueurs, supports …) présents sur Twitter. Cette étude vise à établir un état des lieux et à déterminer quelques tendances.

Plusieurs responsables “social media” ont bien voulu nous livrer leurs recettes et visions sur l’adoption de Twitter en interne. Leurs interviews seront publiées la semaine prochaine sur Locita :

• Myriam L’Aouffir : Responsable de la communication online & Social Media Marketing Manager pour France Télévisions.
• Mathieu Bertolo : Community et Social Media Manager pour France 24 – RFI.
• Florence Porcel : Responsable de la partie web et réseaux sociaux de l’émission Le Grand Webze.

2009: l’année de l’adoption

Cette année là, la profession a clairement investi le réseau. Les années suivantes, la tendance s’est maintenue même si l’afflux fut moins important, notamment au niveau des comptes issus du support (direction, services marketing, web, communication …).(pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

Le Groupe Canal+ devant France TV grâce à Bref

Si le groupe Canal+ est le plus suivi en termes de followers, il le doit principalement à sa série Bref qui totalise plus de 180000 followers. (pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

Au niveau des comptes officiels, France TV est le plus suivi grâce à un maillage : (pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

• complexe car France TV comptabilise 35 comptes officiels répartis sur 6 chaînes de TV. France 3 et ses divisions régionales font gonfler ce score avec 25 comptes officiels.
• très animé car comme nous le verrons dans l’interview de Myriam L’Aouffir, une véritable équipe est dédiée à cette activité.

Au nombre de tweets publiés, les membres de France TV sont les plus actifs avec plus de 537 000 tweets cumulés. (pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

Si les groupes de chaînes sont beaucoup suivis, le follow back (le fait de suivre en retour) n’est clairement pas pratiqué. (pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

Une bataille entre Nikos Aliagas et Cauet

Au niveau des comptes des professionnels de la TV, Cauet domine le classement après avoir rattrapé puis largement dépassé Nikos en à peine 3 mois (+117 621 followers du 1er décembre 2011 au 28 février 2012 pour Cauet contre 73 618 pour Nikos). (pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

En revanche, les deux personnalités ont une utilisation assez différente l’un de l’autre. Nikos répond plus facilement aux twittos “inconnus” alors que Cauet ne discute qu’avec des twittos connus. Au final, Nikos est plus souvent listés (1871) et ses tweets plus favorisés (mis en favoris) que son collègue.

D’après ce graphique, Pierre Godon, journaliste à France TV, se démarque en nombre de tweets favorisés (1692). (pour voir le détail de ce graphique, veuillez cliquer ici)

DH.be – La fin de Megaupload fait les beaux jours de la TV de rattrapage

DH.be – La fin de Megaupload fait les beaux jours de la TV de rattrapage.

PARIS (AFP)

Après la fermeture de la plateforme de téléchargement Megaupload il y a deux semaines, les Français se sont davantage tournés vers les offres légales et gratuites de rattrapage des chaînes françaises, dont le trafic a explosé.
Le site Megaupload.com permettait d’héberger des fichiers et de les partager sur l’internet. Il offrait des milliers de films, séries, émissions de télévision ou chansons en libre accès, par téléchargement direct ou en “streaming”, permettant une lecture en continu, sans téléchargement.
Le 20 janvier, quatre responsables du site basé à Hong Kong, dont le fondateur, alias Kim Dotcom, ont été interpellés à Auckland (Nouvelle-Zélande) sur la base de mandats d’arrêt délivrés par les Etats-Unis.
“Il semble que les utilisateurs de Megaupload sont venus voir les séries américaines sur nos offres gratuites et légales de TV replay. Depuis 15 jours, nous avons un trafic très important sur nos sites de TV replay”, a déclaré lundi Nicolas de Tavernost, président du directoire du groupe M6 (M6, W9).
“Cela a été visible tout de suite” après la fermeture du site, a-t-il ajouté.
Le trafic sur W9 Replay a par exemple été multiplié par quatre, a dit M. de Tavernost. Une forte augmentation a également été constatée sur M6 Replay, a-t-il ajouté, sans la chiffrer.
En 2008, M6 a été la première chaîne française à proposer une offre de TV de rattrapage, ou “catch up TV”.
Depuis, toutes les autres ont suivi. Le service est gratuit mais un clip publicitaire est diffusée avant et/ou pendant la consultation du programme, qui est traditionnellement disponible une semaine.
En 2011, 14,5 millions de personnes ont utilisé la télévision de rattrapage, soit 3,4 millions de plus qu’en 2010, selon Médiamétrie.
L’hyper-offre de l’illégal a éclipsé le légal
Comme M6, TF1 a constaté une augmentation de 40% sur mytf1.fr, son site de rattrapage, mais aussi pour son offre payante de vidéo à la demande (mytf1vod.fr).
“Concernant mytf1vod.fr, pendant les 15 jours suivant la fermeture de Megaupload (données Google Analytics), nous avons constaté une augmentation du trafic en nombre de visites, en visiteurs uniques et en pages vues qui a été multiplié par 2. Les actes d’achats ont également fortement progressé”, relève la direction de TF1.
“L’hyper-offre de l’illégal a souvent éclipsé ces offres légales payantes”, estime-t-on de même source.
“Quand on compare la semaine du 8 au 14 janvier, précédent la fermeture du site, et celle du 22 au 28 janvier, qui a suivi, le nombre de visiteurs uniques a augmenté de 17% sur notre site”, confirme Patrick Suquet co-fondateur de la plateforme tv-replay.fr, qui regroupe tous les programmes de rattrapage proposés en France.
Le visionnage des séries en général a augmenté de 28% depuis le 20 janvier. Les séries américaines sont plébiscitées. Par exemple le trafic sur le policier “Castle” (France 2) a grimpé de 62%, celui sur “NCIS Los Angeles” (M6) de 70% et “Les Experts: Manhattan” (TF1) de 27%.
“Les gens se sont finalement rendus compte qu’ils pouvaient voir gratuitement des séries intéressantes grâce à ces offres légales”, analyse M. Suquet.
“La fermeture de Megaupload, c’est juste un frein temporaire au piratage. Il y a déjà des successeurs à Megauplaud. Je suis assez sceptique”, a de son côté déclaré Olivier Ruffin, fondateur de replay.fr, seconde plateforme française de télévision de rattrapage.

© 2012 AFP. Tous droits de reproduction et de représentation réservés. Toutes les informations reproduites dans cette rubrique (dépêches, photos, logos) sont protégées par des droits de propriété intellectuelle détenus par l’AFP. Par conséquent, aucune de ces informations ne peut être reproduite, modifiée, rediffusée, traduite, exploitée commercialement ou réutilisée de quelque manière que ce soit sans l’accord préalable 

You Watch a Lot of Web Video. You Watch Way More TV. – Peter Kafka – Media – AllThingsD

You Watch a Lot of Web Video. You Watch Way More TV. – Peter Kafka – Media – AllThingsD.

JANUARY 6, 2012 AT 9:41 AM PT

It’s possible that you are a cord-cutter or that you know a cord-cutter. Or that you’d like to cut the cord if you could.

But odds are much better that you:

1. Watch a lot of Web video, and
2. Watch a ton of TV.*

We’ve seen similar stats before, but always good to see a reminder. Today’s comes from Nielsen, which has a very cool looking “State of the Media 2011” report full of cool infographics.

This one, alas, is a tad more vertical than I’d like, but I’m a beggar. So here you go. Note that even you youngsters that watch the most video still put in more than 20x time watching TV (that’s real TV, not Netflix on your flatscreen, etc):

This data comes from Q2 of last year, and it’s self-reported, so it’s possible that it will change dramatically over time, and/or that it’s under- or over-counting one or more datapoints. [UPDATE: My mistake. Nielsen tells me the viewing and Internet data comes from their automated meters which track device behavior, not from self-reported surveys.]

But particularly because we’re about to enter a phase where we hear many loud pronouncements about The Future Of TV (more on that soon), keep in mind that The Present Of TV seems to work for lots of people. For some it’s the equivalent of a full-time job.

*And yes, I realize that some of you could be watching a ton of TV without paying for cable, because you’re getting free HD signals over the air. But my hunch is that’s a very small group for now.

Get Ready For the Advertising World to Transform, Again | DigitalNext

Get Ready For the Advertising World to Transform, Again | DigitalNext: A Blog on Emerging Media and Technology – Advertising Age.

By: Darren Herman Published: January 03, 2012

Darren Herman

At the onset of each new year, we get excited about the forecasts and predictions. While we’ve become accustomed to the brisk pace of change, but I’m predicting 2012 will be a huge year of transformation and consolidation in digital media, marketing and technology world. Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Online will take measurement from TV, but make it better.
I dislike the notion of bringing TV’s Gross Ratings Point, or GRP, to digital media, as I feel that its using a half-assed offline metric and applying it to something that could be so much greater (I do realize billions of dollars are traded on it). Even with my disdain for the GRP, I do like what the comScore and AdXpose team is doing around the Validated GRP, which will be released later this month (January). Why this is exciting to me is because we basically created the “validity” portion in my last company, IGA Worldwide, where we created an in-game ad server that measured impressions by time on screen, angle of impression, and size of impression. If all three vectors did not meet minimum criteria, we did not count it as a validated impression for our clients. It is about time that this type of impression measurement system moves to the web. In 2012, the vGRP will be released and we will see some major agencies using it as one of the primary measurement tool. I look forward to diving in deeper to the vGRP for The Media Kitchen and our clients.

2. Some agencies will transform with technology, some won’t.
Over the past three years marketing technology platforms have penetrated Madison Avenue en masse; it was the “hot” area. Over the next 12 months, agencies will realize they actually have technology for media delivery and optimization and have to go from the bright-shiny-object (honeymoon phase) to the holy-crap-it’s-time-to-build-a-business-phase. Why this gets a significant call-out is because this fundamentally impacts how agencies go to market and structure their organizations. Organizational change is never easy and we do not expect every agency to nail becoming a pseudo hybrid technology organization. Some agencies might write off their trading desks, others will avoid this area all together, but many will start scaling and seeing positive returns. It’s not easy to get through this next phase, but we should be studying the agencies that nail it as that could be the future platforms of media, analytics, strategy and potentially creative on Madison Avenue.

3. Agencies who are not agencies challenge the agencies.
There are quite a few companies out there in the marketplace who position themselves not as agencies, but take both agency and client-direct media spend and place them in the market. Some independent DSPs, ad networks, and boutique players fall into this category. While many of these players do not like referring to themselves as media or other types of agencies, largely because they are venture backed and do not want service multiples applied to their valuations, they will challenge the more traditional media agencies in 2012 in at least a few digital media pitches. These new organizations were built with technology at their core, and have the best chance at potentially using this technology to help their clients solve their problems. If this happens, there could be a big shift of power from the old guard to the new. I do not expect Madison Avenue to be disintermediated in 2012, but we’ll start to see some none-traditional agencies part of a few new business pitches.

4. Publishers will get more credit for the value they create.
A halfway decent media buyer understands that if they are trying to drive conversions on a media plan, they will generally stay away from big and sexy placements. They will also steer clear of high priced inventory as it drives up the effective conversion price. This knowledge has been passed down over the years and its right, so long as the attribution on a digital plan is via last-touch attribution. In other words, if you are the last media impression (click or view thru) before the conversion, you receive 100% of the credit. This is going to change and when it does, it unlocks a ton of value for underperforming publishers. Let me explain. When assigning credit to the whole conversion path, rather than the last touchpoint, we derive value from media that would not have been bought and scaled before. This means that content, video, high-touch placements start to carve out their dollars on a plan. So, in 2012, we will start to see more agencies adopting this measurement methodology, attribution vendor consolidation (many exist), and the price drop a bit for this type of reporting, as it becomes a commonplace.

5. Lots of eager buyers will snap up startups for their teams, technologies.
The marketing technology ecosystem is full of players that have emerged within the last five years. These companies are either pulling away from the pack, at break even, or running out of cash. Of the latter two, options include a choice to merge or be acquired which is what I posit that we will start to see in 2012. We will see both private-private transactions and public-to-private transactions. Public companies that need to beef up their ad technology stack are Amazon, Adobe, Oracle, Accenture, IBM, Akamai, Apple, LinkedIN, Google, MSFT, Zynga, Yahoo! and (soon to-be-public) Facebook. These organizations have a lot of cash on their balance sheets and could turn into knights in shining armor for some struggling startups and their investors. Because there are so many strategic buyers, we will continue to see investment into this space in 2012, both at the earlier and later stages.

These are my top five predictions for 2012 and I don’t think they are far-fetched. I am excited to see how they play out over the next 365 days.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Darren Herman Darren Herman is the Chief Digital Media Officer of The Media Kitchen and President of kbs+ Ventures, both part of New York based kirshenbaum bond senecal & partners. He blogs athttp://www.darrenherman.com and tweets at @dherman76.