Les chiffres fous de la 5G, qui va irriguer tous les secteurs de l’économie, High tech

Source: Les chiffres fous de la 5G, qui va irriguer tous les secteurs de l’économie, High tech

 

 

Les chiffres fous de la 5G, qui va irriguer tous les secteurs de l’économie

Les chiffres sont énormes et on peine à y croire. Mais le cabinet anglais IHS Markit évalue à 12,3 trillions, autrement dit plus de 12.000 milliards de dollars, l’apport de la 5G à l’économie mondiale en 2035. « C’est presque l’équivalent de la consommation américaine en 2016 et plus que celle de la Chine, du Japon, de l’Allemagne, du Royaume-Uni et de la France combinés, l’an dernier », souligne l’étude.

La 5G, qui doit voir le jour fin 2019, promet de multiplier par 1.000 la performance des réseaux. Et de porter l’essor de l’internet des objets. IHS a passé en revue les secteurs pouvant le plus bénéficier de cette technologie. Automobile, santé, finance, télécoms… (voir graphique), tous vont en profiter. Et c’est la somme des contributions de la 5G à ces secteurs qui donne le chiffre de 12,3 trillions.

L’étude prévoit en outre la création de 22 millions de nouveaux emplois. Soit, l’équivalent de la population de Pékin ! 85 % des Européens sondés par IHS estiment que de nouvelles industries vont émerger, liées aux bénéfices apportés par la 5G. Et, que 88 % de nouveaux services et produits vont être inventés grâce à la 5G, souligne IHS qui a interrogé plus de 3.500 décideurs et spécialistes de la technologie.

La France déjà en retard ?

Autre chiffre : la 5G devrait générer pas moins de 3,5 trillions de dollars de revenus en 2035, ce qui représente le PIB de l’Inde. C’est la Chine qui en profitera le plus, avec 984 milliards de dollars, devant les Etats-Unis (719 milliards). En Europe, l’Allemagne, dont la force de l’industrie n’est plus à prouver, devrait être la grande gagnante : 202 milliards de revenus et 1,2 million d’emplois créés. Outre-Rhin, on avait déjà été les premiers à lancer les enchères pour la 4G…

La France, elle, n’attend « que » 85 milliards de revenus et près de 400.000 emplois nouveaux. Le Royaume-Uni est derrière elle en revenus (76 milliards), mais devant en emplois (605.000). Et, outre-Manche, la 5G, c’est plutôt bien parti : le régulateur prévoit de mettre à disposition les premières fréquences dès cette année. Alors que dans l’Hexagone, des voix s’élèvent déjà pour pointer le retard. Déjà, pour la 4G, la France ne comptait pas parmi les bons élèves. « Il va falloir un vrai travail de fond de l’Etat et du régulateur pour que la France ne soit pas en retard pour le déploiement de la 5G, explique Laurent Fournier, DG de Qualcomm France. Les pouvoirs publics français ne sont pour l’heure pas très actifs par rapport à l’Allemagne ou même l’Italie. Les Italiens sont à fond sur la 5G, comme rarement on les a vus. »

L’étude IHS démontre qu’il y a une attente forte des bénéfices espérés de la 5G. « Je ne pense pas qu’il y ait de survente, affirme Laurent Fournier. En revanche, il existe une préoccupation très nette sur la capacité à investir, notamment en France. » IHS pointe, notamment, l’inquiétude des sondés pour l’économie globale de leur pays, si la 5G devait y être déployée trop tardivement, par rapport au reste du monde. 76 % des Anglais et 73 % des Français redoutent ainsi d’être moins compétitifs. A l’inverse, seuls 59 % des Allemands souffrent des mêmes maux.

Pour l’heure, dans le monde, ce sont la Corée et le Japon qui sont les plus avancés. Les Jeux Olympiques de Pyeongchang, en Corée du Sud, vont, d’ailleurs, faire office de premier terrain d’expérimentation pour la 5G. En Europe, c’est la Finlande et la Suède qui font la course en tête. C’était déjà le cas pour la 4G et, manifestement, tous deux sont plutôt bien partis pour recréer une dynamique de leadership en 5G.

Fabienne Schmitt, Les Echos
@FabienneSchmitt

TripAdvisor Rethinks Marketing as It Tries to Solve Instant Booking Problems – Skift

TripAdvisor hasn’t yet been able to create enough consumer awareness that it is a one-stop shop for planning and booking a hotel so it is considering returning to TV advertising this year after skipping it in 2016, the company stated. The user review and hotel search and booking site reported what many would consider to […]

Source: TripAdvisor Rethinks Marketing as It Tries to Solve Instant Booking Problems –

SKIFT TAKE

TripAdvisor became the largest travel site in the world based on its high-profile in free search results. But Google has become a hyper-monetized marketplace and TripAdvisor’s competitors have the resources to grossly outspending it in digital marketing.

— Dennis Schaal

TripAdvisor hasn’t yet been able to create enough consumer awareness that it is a one-stop shop for planning and booking a hotel so it is considering returning to TV advertising this year after skipping it in 2016, the company stated.

The user review and hotel search and booking site reported what many would consider to be disappointing fourth quarter and full-year 2016 earnings Wednesday with revenue and GAAP net income declining 2 percent and 67 percent, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and 1 percent and 39 percent for the entire year.

“While such volatility was largely expected, we saw a dampened back-half recovery and we were perhaps too optimistic about how quickly our product changes would raise awareness of TripAdvisor as a great place to book,” the company stated in prepared remarks released with its earnings report.

There are also additional headwinds from big-spending competitors such as the Priceline Group and Expedia Inc. — and also probably Google’s efforts to hyper-monetize search results, downgrading companies like TripAdvisor with previously strong search engine optimization.

“All the while, our competition has not been standing still and we continue to be significantly outspent on marketing,” TripAdvisor stated. “This competitive dynamic has been compounded as revenue per hotel shopper headwinds from instant booking slowed 2016 Hotel segment direct marketing expenses to single-digit growth year-on-year.”

TRYING TO RIGHT THE SHIP

TripAdvisor fully rolled out Instant Booking, which enables consumers to book hotels on the site without having to link off to a partner, in the United States in August 2015. It has been struggling to recover its click-based and transaction revenue growth per hotel shopper since the introduction of Instant Booking in early 2015.

In the fourth quarter of 2016, that transaction and click-based revenue improved sequentially to negative 7 percent, up from negative 12 percent in the third quarter. So the clicks and transaction revenue trended upwards but was still in the red.

TripAdvisor states it is encouraged by the improvements it is seeing and is investing in technology as well as digital marketing.

TripAdvisor advertised on TV in 2015 and found that it had ample awareness of the brand in some of the markets, including the U.S., where the commercials ran so it decided to sit out 2016 while it worked on Instant Booking.

But that absence on TV could change quickly.

“… We are also evaluating a multi-year brand marketing investment, including a return to TV advertising,” TripAdvisor stated. “At a high-level, we believe a brand marketing investment would enable us to reach a broad audience and could help to accelerate the user perception shift to TripAdvisor as a place to price compare and book. Size, scope, timing, and ROI of such investment are currently under consideration. We will provide our updated thoughts on this investment in due course.”

STILL BULLISH

TripAdvisor, citing ComScore studies, believes that it plays a role in 40 percent to 50 percent of hotel transactions — globally. But it isn’t making money on many of the transactions it sways so that is one of the reasons why TripAdvisor launched Instant Booking, which it sees as “a multi-billion dollar opportunity.”

TripAdvisor, which attracted nearly 390 million unique visitors per month last Summer, sees improvements in its operations, including hotel-shopper growth that accelerated sequentially to 8 percent, from 3 percent, in the fourth quarter.

The company put the best face on its struggles, stating, “Coming out of 2016, we believe we are turning a corner.” It plans to focus on revenue growth over profits in 2017, and projects that revenue growth will be in the double digits while adjusted EBITDA will be flat to lower.

FOCUS ON TOURS AND ATTRACTIONS

While TripAdvisor struggled in Instant Booking for hotels, its non-hotel revenue, including attractions, restaurants and vacation rentals, increased 49 percent to $64 million [≈ Finance industry 2011 political donations to Republicans] in the fourth quarter. For the full year, non-hotel revenue, which amounts to 20 percent of TripAdvisor’s total revenue, rose 27 percent to 290 million.

Focused on growing inventory and its addressable market, the non-hotel segment isn’t profitable, having lost $28 million [≈ Energy industry 2011 political donations] in 2016 versus a loss of $6 million the previous year.

Interestingly, beyond hotels, TripAdvisor sees attractions as its largest growth opportunity — larger than vacation rentals.

The following commercial was part of TripAdvisor’s 2014 ad campaign:

Jaguar lance le paiement direct en voiture avec les stations Shell.

Source: Jaguar lance le paiement direct en voiture avec les stations Shell.

Les nouveaux modèles de Jaguar ainsi que de Land Rover vont embarquer un moyen de paiement mobile. Ce dernier servira à effectuer des paiements directement depuis le tableau de bord dans les stations essence du réseau Shell.

Pour la première fois depuis l’annonce de système d’exploitation pour voiture comme le CarPlay de la marque à la pomme, aucun constructeur n’avait tenté de pousser plus loin le service.

Ici, les conducteurs vont pouvoir utiliser deux supports : Apple Pay et PayPal. Android Pay est pour l’instant annoncé, mais pas encore prêt. Dans un premier temps ce système va être lancé au Royaume-Uni pour être développé à l’international dans un second temps. Pour faire fonctionner leur moyen de paiement, les propriétaires de Jaguar F-PACE, XE, et modèles XF, ou de Land Rover devront installer l’application Shell dans leur voiture. Shell possède déjà une application de paiement qui s’appelle ‘Fill Up & Go’, mais elle ne fonctionne qu’avec le smartphone de son utilisateur.

Cette une première avancée pour l’intégration de paiements en voiture. Dans quelques années, on peut très bien imaginer le même système intégré dans beaucoup de modèles chez les autres constructeurs offrant des possibilités multiples. Sur l’autoroute le péage pourrait être plus rapide, donc désengorger certains passage et réduire les émissions de CO2. Les drives de McDonald’s, Quick, ou Burger King pourraient être plus automatisés.

Comme il existe du piratage pour les moyens de paiements sans contact, on pourrait très bien voir arriver cela pour ces voitures. On peut se douter que Jaguar a bien travaillé sur la question, mais ses utilisateurs sont-ils suffisamment avertis ?

Source.

What Artificial Intelligence Means for your Digital Marketing Strategy

Source: What Artificial Intelligence Means for your Digital Marketing Strategy

Automating marketing processes is not a new concept. Marketers continue to use technology to eliminate the need for manual effort in processes such as creating content, segmenting customers, pushing out emails or testing the performance of campaign ads. Even then, many marketing decisions are still not made on hard facts but rather on hypotheses, extrapolation and intuition.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers marketers the hope of accurately understanding their customers and in turn being able to really engage these customers, grow sales and realise solid returns on investment. In an age of big data, AI goes beyond collecting and analysing data; more importantly, this robust technology makes meaning of data therefore helping marketers to address crucial questions in increasingly competitive  business landscapes.

Without a doubt, AI technology will have significant implications for digital marketing in more than one way.

BIG DATA, AI AND CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT

For the longest time, marketers have depended on A/B tests to measure the impact of their marketing efforts.  While tracking and monitoring  conversions and clicks has had its place in digital marketing, fast – changing consumer behaviour demands better, faster and more accurate approaches to gathering and analysing consumer data. In many ways, artificial intelligence offers the hope that marketers will be able to collect more accurate consumer data through means as subtle as facial expressions to determine customers’ reaction towards a product or service.

A thorough understanding of customers’ needs means marketers will be able to deliver better experiences to their customers. AI will enable marketers to ask the right questions and to measure metrics that really matter in terms of alleviating consumers’ pain points.

Today, consumers are increasingly concerned not just with purchasing products but also with the experience and interactions they have with brands. Big data, a key element of AI is set to revolutionise the experiences smart brands create for their customers by making interaction seamless, meaningful and memorable for the end user.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND SEO

With the rise of natural language processing technology, there is no doubt that advances in artificial intelligence technology will continue to bring significant changes to SEO.

Google’s AI, RankBrain, is already having a significant impact on search rankings and this is true especially with natural language processing. Using its AI, Google will rank pages on a 1 to 10 scale so that pages with a score of 10 are considered the best. Such pages would typically have attractive and relevant headlines, consistently strong rates of conversion and high click through rates. All this is in an effort to serve users with the best and most relevant content to address their problems.

Additionally, Google is using its AI to understand both the consumer and marketer’s intent. RankBrain is set to process complex long tail keywords to determine what the user is searching. This way, Google is able to provide users with pages that offer accurate answers to their questions.

From the marketer’s end, RankBrain assesses the message you are intending to convey via your website’s content and evaluates its quality in terms of providing appropriate answers to users’ questions. What implications does this have? According to Gianluca Fiorelli of the Moz Blog, quality content created around a consideration for natural language and long tail keywords will always be a winner. Marketers who will benefit the most are those who will create content with the goal of helping consumers solve specific problems.

EMAIL MARKETING AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

In spite of the boom in social media and the personalised marketing opportunities these channels provide, email continues to be a tried, tested and proven platform for solid ROI for marketers. In fact, studies show that email is 40 times more effective at acquiring new customers than social media platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.

So, what does the rise of AI mean for the email marketer? Appropriate segmentation and accurate targeting are vital for any email marketing campaign.  AI technology now makes it easier for marketers to segment target audiences more effectively and comprehensively based on where each consumer is on the sales funnel.  Acute segmentation and email personalisation means lower bounce rates, high click through rates and equally high conversion rates.

Other than aiding in delivering impressive ROI on marketing efforts, AI technology will continue to help small businesses save on resources as AI will eliminate the need to spend a lot of time and energy on A/B testing email content, subject lines or landing pages.

From conversational commerce, customer segmentation, content creation to natural language processing, artificial intelligence will continue to touch and change numerous aspects of online marketing. Should marketers be worried about what the future holds? On the contrary, AI technology will  likely enable businesses to better understand human behaviour and with such an understanding be able to aid consumers in meeting their most pressing needs – this is the essence of contemporary marketing after all.

At Havas, It Takes a Village to Win So Many Accounts in So Little Time – Adweek

Source: At Havas, It Takes a Village to Win So Many Accounts in So Little Time – Adweek

Adweek’s U.S. Media Agency of the Year secured midsize clients like TracFone, Hallmark and Swarovski

The Havas Media team (l. to r.): Greg James, evp, chief strategy officer; George Sargent, president, Havas Media Boston; Barbara Kittridge, evp, business development; Kinsella; Shane Ankeney, president, Havas Media Group U.S.; Andrea Millett, president, Havas Media New York and head of client operations; Jason Kanefsky, evp, chief investment officer
Kevin Scanlon

The first “get to know you” meeting between Havas Media North America’s incoming CEO Colin Kinsella and his new employees last May did not occur in the most glamorous of settings.

“I met the team, essentially, in a hotel room in Miami working on the TracFone pitch,” recalls Kinsella, the former Mindshare North America chief who Havas brought on to run its media division last March. “Obviously they were very nervous, [but] I got everybody to really loosen up and not feel the pressure of the pitch.”

Whatever Kinsella did to soothe his team’s nerves, it worked: Havas beat out Horizon, UM and incumbent Mediavest to win agency of record duties for the rapidly expanding prepaid cellphone company, which is expected to spend up to $300 million on marketing in North America this year.

Thus began a series of wins—including Universal Music Group, Swarovski, Hallmark and Dow Jones—that amounted to $700 million ≈ box office sales of Star Wars Ep. VI: Return of the Jedi, 1983

≈ box office sales of The Graduate, 1967
≈ box office sales of The Godfather, 1972
≈ box office sales of Mary Poppins, 1964
≈ Mona Lisa assessed value, 1962

“>[≈ box office sales of The Lion King, 1994] in new media spend, contributed to revenue growth in the 40 percent range, solidified the self-described “humble” network’s client roster and played a large role in securing Adweek’s U.S. Media Agency of the Year for 2016.

#BetterTogether

“If there’s one thing I want you to remember about Havas,” says Kinsella, “it’s #BetterTogether. When I start a new business pitch, that’s the first line.”

Over the past several years, every agency holding company has tried to address the splintering of legacy business models in its own way. Publicis vowed to end all silos via consolidation, Omnicom created an independent unit dedicated to McDonald’s, and DDB opted to “Flex” its muscles by pulling talent from disparate agencies to work on shared accounts. For Havas Worldwide, the “Village” model finally began to pay off in 2016 after three years of development.

In short, the Village approach involves housing all elements of an agency’s operations under the same roof with a flat structure across divisions. An ideal scenario would involve one office handling as many aspects of a given piece of business as possible, from creative to PR to paid media. “It’s easy to say, ‘We’re the sixth biggest holding company, so we have to be nimble,’” says Havas Media Boston president George Sargent, “but the organization is incredibly focused. The dream is that we have both creative and media for more clients.”

As a privately held business, Havas has not gone too far out of its way to promote the Village since its 2013 launch. “We’re not that type of agency that goes out drumming on about what we do,” explains Barb Kittridge, evp of business development. “From a new business perspective, you have to balance humility with realizing we have a fantastic story to tell in the marketplace.”

But word has gotten out. “I saw them as one of the better-kept secrets in the industry,” adds North American president Shane Ankeney, who joined the network last year and characterized the Village as a “partnership of equals.

“If there’s one thing I want you to remember about Havas, it’s #BetterTogether.”
-Havas Media CEO Colin Kinsella

“As corny as it may sound, Havas Media helped the Village find its voice in 2016,” Ankeney says.
This philosophy isn’t just the embodiment of the schoolyard cliche “there’s no ‘I’ in team”—it’s also a physical reality. “Don’t underestimate the power of an office,” says Kinsella, noting the strategic placement of staircases in central locations on each floor of the New York office. “We force people to run into each other. That’s where a lot of the conversations are happening.”

Sargent argues that, while larger holding companies create consolidated teams to service big spenders like McDonald’s, P&G or AT&T, his network applies the same basic concept to clients like TracFone with more limited budgets.

While Havas has concentrated its efforts successfully at midsize clients, thanks in part to the string of wins, its pitches are also growing larger: the shop reached the final stages of reviews for big spenders like General Mills and 20th Century Fox last year and ended 2016 by beating out rivals (Kinsella declined to identify any) to win the $70 million [≈ Finance industry 2011 political donations to Republicans] TD Bank account.

Phil Dunphy, realtor

No single project better encapsulates the Village model’s ideal than last year’s collaboration between ABC sitcom juggernaut Modern Family and Havas client the National Association of Realtors.

Most people don’t understand the difference between realtors and real estate agents (who must be employed by a broker). But a Havas NAR team led by chief strategy and development officer Greg James pitched the idea that the show’s long-suffering dad Phil Dunphy—a professional realtor played by Ty Burrell—was the best party to remind the public of that distinction.

“One of the rarest things in this industry is when you pitch an idea and see the idea, verbatim, come to life a year later,” explains James. The show’s producers and co-creators Christopher Lloyd and Steven Levitan bought into the NAR’s pitch almost immediately. But the complexity of its execution, which involved an unprecedented degree of integration from both production company 20th Century Fox TV and network ABC, made the project especially challenging.

Levitan and his team ended up writing the entire episode around the pitch, and it ended with an exchange that might double as the trade group’s mission statement: “What are you, a real estate agent? No, I’m a realtor.”

Havas sister shop Arnold Boston created a series of related “Phil’s-osophies” ads, which aired before and after the show. Kinsella notes that Havas PR played a significant role, with actor Burrell appearing on Good Morning America the next day to joke about being “the face of real estate.” The project also allowed Havas to promote itself indirectly: The Wall Street Journal produced a video case study, and James completed filming an NBC interview on product integration only minutes before speaking to Adweek for this story.

According to Kinsella, the campaign managed to combine data, strategy, creative and earned media while proving his theory that old-fashioned TV is on the upswing. “[With TV] you can create an emotional connection that you can’t in other mediums,” he says, adding that many of his clients have recently scaled back their digital budgets in favor of running more “traditional” ads.

Of course Havas, like every planning and buying shop, aims to master all media.

Power of performance

TD Bank evp and chief marketing officer Patrick McLean explains that Havas won the 2016 pitch, in large part, by tying its media buys to sales goals. “At one point in the final round of the pitch, Shane Ankeney said, ‘We believe all media is performance media,’” McLean remembers. “That really aligned with how we think about our media strategy.”

McLean also mentions the appeal of Havas’ long-standing relationships with clients like LVMH and Choice Hotels. The latter, which has worked with the network for more than a decade, opted to stay with Havas over 11 challengers in a 2016 review.

Michelle Holmes, Choice Hotels’ vp of digital, media and consumer acquisition, echoes McLean in crediting the agency’s “analytics-driven perspective,” as she calls it. “They are always proactive in bringing those insights to us before we hear about it in the market or industry trades,” says Holmes. “Other partners [in the review] were spectacular, but Havas was still superior.”

Clients also vouch for claims that Havas takes more unconventional approaches. Rodney Williams, Moët Hennessy’s CMO and evp of brands, worked with the shop on a relaunch of the Hennessy brand more than six years ago and appreciates the broader perspective the agency brought to the table. “Traditionally, spirits brands have relied on out of home, but the Havas media plan was very comprehensive,” he says. “They have a hunger and they very much work as the challenger versus the incumbent.”

Yet, despite the clients’ focus on analytics, CEO Kinsella pushes back against the common industry narrative casting metrics as the future of advertising.

Simpler solutions

“I don’t think anyone has a unique proposition when it comes to data,” says Kinsella. “A ton of data doesn’t mean it’s better; it just means you have more of it.”

Kinsella has mandated a “no-jerks-allowed” philosophy at the office. It’s an understatement to say that it’s gone over well.
Kevin Scanlon

Kinsella’s approach differs from those of WPP’s GroupM and Omnicom’s Hearts & Science, the latter of which used its in-house data system Annalect in 2016 to help win America’s two biggest advertisers, P&G and AT&T (see related story on page 28). WPP CEO Martin Sorrell recently told a crowd at CES that WPP had “failed” to properly integrate its data—claiming that his company’s first-party approach would help differentiate it from other media networks that don’t own the data they use.

Kinsella respectfully disagrees. “I don’t think that data is going to be where the battle ends up; it’s going to be a combination of media platforms and the creative ideas that you put on those platforms,” he notes, adding that he doesn’t think most clients believe other media shops’ pitches about the uniqueness of their data offerings.

This decision to avoid self-serving claims is in keeping with the Village model. James also argues that it could eliminate the tribalist instincts that can divide different teams working on the same accounts.

“[We’re] making sure people are working under one P&L and not trying to protect their own fiefdoms,” he says. This mindset may also facilitate what James calls “a natural absorption of skills … If a planner turns up to a client meeting with another creative shop, they will be better at the job because they’ve been exposed to creatives in their own Village.

“We’ve eliminated complexity,” James adds, arguing that clients are right to wonder, when told that employees X and Y serve on different teams, whether they work for the same company with the same shared goals.

Looking ahead

“From day one, Colin brought in a cultural imperative: that we be a no-jerks-allowed organization,” says Sargent. “He’s very low drama, empathetic and respectful; he’s always on time to meetings. It’s amazing how that stuff spreads.” Kinsella adds, “There’s a whole thing built around respect, and I think it changes the culture rather quickly.”

The maturation of the Village hasn’t always been smooth. Chris Jones, svp, marketing and communications, notes that Havas Media once fired five CEOs in a single day while struggling through an implementation process that involved “a lot of painstaking work.” The larger organization also went through a significant leadership change as Havas Creative Group parted with global CEO Andrew Benett at the end of January after 13 years; holding company chairman and CEO Yannick Bolloré (son of founder Vincent Bolloré) took over Benett’s duties.

But the network’s new leaders see the past year as a final stage in the Village’s first chapter. Kinsella describes 2017 as “a year of action,” adding, “all we want in this organization is to get things in the marketplace for our clients.

“We’re nine months in, so I hope this is the beginning of an incredibly long run for us,” Kinsella says, noting that Havas Media was currently involved in more than nine active pitches. “But it’s a crazy industry. You never get cocky, that’s for sure.”

“Cocky” may not be the first word an outsider would use to describe Havas Media. But its leadership might be forgiven for feeling a little more confident in 2017.

À Wall Street, les robots ont pris le pouvoir – Finance – Trends-Tendances.be

Vus comme une poule aux oeufs d’or ou pointés du doigt à chaque “accident” sur les marchés, les algorithmes règnent en maître à Wall Street mais leur contrôle reste parfois aléatoire.

Source: À Wall Street, les robots ont pris le pouvoir – Finance – Trends-Tendances.be

A l’origine de ce “crash éclair”, le déclenchement d’un programme informatique qui avait commencé à vendre une très grande quantité de contrats à terme sur le S&P 500 en une vingtaine de minutes.

Ce qui aurait pu être presque invisible a pris de l’ampleur avec les réactions en chaîne des autres ordinateurs, notamment ceux utilisant des techniques de spéculation à très grande vitesse.

Ce type d’incident, s’il est rare, met en lumière la place qu’ont pris sur les marchés financiers les algorithmes, ces programmes informatiques composés d’une suite de commandes pouvant être très simples ou au contraire ultra-sophistiquées.

C’est la création du Nasdaq, en 1971, avec ses échanges électroniques ensuite devenus la norme, qui a ouvert les portes de Wall Street aux ordinateurs.

Aujourd’hui, les algorithmes pourraient intervenir, à un stade ou à un autre, dans 90% des transactions, avance Valerie Bogard de TABB Group, une société de conseil financier, qui précise toutefois que c’est très difficile à évaluer.

“Même quand un ordre est passé par un vendeur, il est possible qu’un algorithme ait été utilisé”, détaille-t-elle.

Algorithme qui ‘apprend’

Les “boîtes noires” ne nécessitent, elles, aucune intervention humaine. Ces programmes sont conçus pour opérer de manière autonome et appliquer des stratégies définies en fonctions des informations qu’ils reçoivent.

Récemment, l’entreprise T3 a ainsi mis en place un “robot” qui scrute les tweets du président des Etats-Unis Donald Trump, identifie les entreprises qu’il mentionne, analyse la teneur du message et parie ensuite en Bourse sur les conséquences que cela peut provoquer.

Dans ce domaine, la nouvelle frontière est l’intelligence statistique. L’algorithme “apprend” et affine ses estimations en direct en utilisant des données financières ou les réseaux sociaux.

Des entreprises comme QuantCube essaient de faire analyser par leurs algorithmes ce nombre énorme de données, le fameux “big data”, pour en tirer des conclusions d’investissements sur les marchés.

Mais l’une des applications les plus importantes sur les marchés financiers, et la plus critiquée, reste le courtage à haute fréquence.

Des ordres de ventes ou d’achats sont passés à très grande vitesse pour pouvoir réaliser de petits gains, mais qui, multipliés par leur très grand nombre, vont générer des millions.

Ces transactions, où l’unité de mesure est la microseconde, représentent une part très importante du volume d’échanges et sont critiquées pour l’opacité qu’elles peuvent engendrer.

“Il y a par exemple ce qui est appelé les leurres, quand un trader à haute fréquence tente de créer un environnement favorable en multipliant de faux ordres qui sont ensuite annulés”, explique Eric Noll, PDG de l’agence de courtage Convergex, pour qui c’est l’utilisation et non l’existence des algorithmes qui est en cause.

L’homme derrière la machine

Pour la première fois, la SEC, le gendarme américain de la Bourse, a mis à l’amende en 2014 un gestionnaire de portefeuille new-yorkais accusé d’avoir pendant six mois placé de nombreux ordres dans les deux dernières secondes avant la clôture afin de manipuler les prix.

Depuis, les autorités américaines ont élargi leur arsenal de lutte contre ces fraudes et traquent l’homme derrière la machine.

Ceux qui conçoivent ou opèrent ces logiciels doivent désormais être identifiés et la SEC a le pouvoir d’exiger les documents ayant permis la création de ces algorithmes.

A Wall Street, plusieurs Bourses où les transactions sont ralenties de quelques microsecondes ont été crées, comme IEX ou la future plateforme d’échanges du groupe New York Stock Exchange. Leur but: laisser le temps aux courtiers, humains, de passer leurs ordres et ainsi limiter les “excès” des machines.

“J’étais déjà sur les marchés en 1987, c’était bien avant les algorithmes, avec des gens qui achetaient et qui vendaient. Je peux vous dire que quand il y a eu le crash de 1987, tout le monde était aux abonnés absents”, modère toutefois Eric Noll.

Et de conclure: “il n’y a jamais personne pour rattraper un couteau en train de tomber, que ce soit un humain ou un ordinateur”

Hans Rosling’s 200 Countries, 200 Years, 4 Minutes – The Joy of Stats – BBC Four

More about this programme: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00wgq0l
Hans Rosling’s famous lectures combine enormous quantities of public data with a sport’s commentator’s style to reveal the story of the world’s past, present and future development. Now he explores stats in a way he has never done before – using augmented reality animation. In this spectacular section of ‘The Joy of Stats’ he tells the story of the world in 200 countries over 200 years using 120,000 numbers – in just four minutes. Plotting life expectancy against income for every country since 1810, Hans shows how the world we live in is radically different from the world most of us imagine.

THE WAKE-UP CALL: Havas Meaningful Brands 2017 – Belgian Results coming soon !

 

People wouldn’t care if 74% of the brands they use just disappeared.

75% of us expect brands to make more of a contribution to our wellbeing and quality of life, yet only 40% believe brands are doing so.

60% of content produced by brands is declared as poor, irrelevant or failing to deliver.

Meaningful Brands : 60% des contenus sont hors de propos (source: Media Marketing)

Source: Media Marketing | News | Meaningful Brands : 60% des contenus sont hors de propos

Havas a publié les résultats 2017 de son étude mondiale Meaningful Brands, présentée en long et en large sur un site dédié particulièrement bluffant. Pour rappel, l’outil mesure la contribution des marques à la qualité de vie des gens. Au menu : pas moins de 1.500 marques étudiées dans 15 secteurs et 300.000 personnes interrogées dans 33 pays.

On notera ces trois “wake up calls” épinglés par Havas : 74% des marques pourraient disparaître demain sans que cela n’émeuve qui que ce soit ; 75% des répondants attendent des marques qu’elles contribuent davantage à leur bien-être et à leur qualité de vie ; 60% des contenus produits par les marques sont considérés comme pauvres et hors de propos.

Havas constate également que la courbe de tendance des indices boursiers des marques “qui font sens”, surperforme de 206% sur une période de 10 ans (2006-2016) et que ces mêmes marques ont augmenté leurs KPIs de 137%.

Le top 3 mondial des Meaningful Brands est dominé par Google, PayPal et WhatsApp. On notera que ces deux dernières n’étaient même pas reprises dans le top 10 de l’édition 2015 de l’étude et que dans cette même édition, Google occupait la deuxième place derrière Samsung qui chute de quatre places. Outre PayPal, WhatsApp, ce même top 10 en 2017 voit l’arrivée de YouTube (5ième), Mercedes-Benz (6ième) et Lego (10ième). IKEA maintient son rang (9ième) et Nestlé qui était encore sur la troisième marche du podium en 2015, perd 15 places.

Les secteurs les plus “meaningful” sont les voyages & loisirs, devant le retail, le food, les transports et l’automobile.

Meaningful communication: It’s about connecting with people and relating our storytelling to what’s important in their lives ! 02/01/2017

The majority of consumers think branded content is just in the way of their online experience. Every storyteller will reveal that this is because they’re not involved. If there’s nothing in there for them, why should they be interested?

Source: When 60% Think Brand Content Is ‘Clutter’ It’s Time To Deploy Every Storyteller’s Secret Weapon 02/01/2017

Oh dear, you can’t really get two more standout diametrically opposed findings from a piece of research. When Havas looked into attitudes toward branded content for its “Meaningful Brands” report, it found some good news and some pretty awful news.
First the positive — 85% of consumers expect to see brands out there sharing content, so in case you’re being held back by concerns that nobody wants to hear what your company has to say about anything, you stand corrected. The point is, though, to be open to brands pumping out content is one thing, to enjoy it is quite another. Here Havas found that 60% of consumers find branded content is simply “clutter.”

Now, before we go any further, it’s probably worth pointing out that media companies are not immune from this, and I use the term ‘media companies’ very loosely. Just look at all the nonsense clickbait that surrounds nearly every article you’re likely to read online, even in highly rated media sources, and you could hardly say that content “clutter” is not exclusive to brands.

However, whether or not someone clicks to find out what a star of an old film looks like now or why number 7 in some endless sequence of photographs will make you cry is so low down most of our priority lists that it doesn’t even factor. What is important, however, is that being a meaningful brand means — according to Havas — a company will usually outperform the stock market average by more than 200%. Owning a brand that has meaning to people is important and content plays a role here.

The basic finding of the report is that while brands are out there sharing content about their products and services, where they usually fall short is communicating what that means to a person’s real life, beyond the mobile or desktop screen. So if you cannot relate to consumers as individual readers and if you can’t make it clear that there is a purpose in there for them if they carry on reading your content, then just don’t bother. All that will happen is you’ll add to the “clutter” and risk being one of the three in four brands that consumers wouldn’t think twice about if they no longer existed.

A good example the researchers give is a series of short videos from Nicorette that scored very highly for meaningfulness because they explained the products as well as their impact on customers’ lives. Conversely, a glitzy and hugely expensive ad slot in which Gwen Stefani unveiled a new single, courtesy of Target, scored a spectacularly low meaningful score. Put simply, people care more about how Nicorette could help them quit a filthy habit which could mean they will be around to see their kids getting married than they do about a pop star’s latest release.

So it’s not just about big named and big budgets. It’s about connecting with people and relating your storytelling to what’s important in their lives. It’s a little like chatting at the school gate or a party. The people who have nothing to say are as annoying as those who have too much to say, about themselves. The people you want to talk to will ask bring you in, orient their stories around you and leave you feeling that you’ve been involved, not talked at. It’s the same for brands and content.