Apps en 2015: 80% du temps mobile. |Thomas Husson (Forrester) Viuz

Thomas Husson (Forrester) : 5 constats et 5 tendances pour l’Apps Marketing en 2015 | Viuz.

Même si les Apps représentent 80% du temps mobile. Elles ne constituent pas la panacée pour les marques. Dans une étude publiée par Forrester, Thomas Husson analyse le cas spécifique des Apps de marque et nous livre ces 5 tendances en termes d’Apps marketing en 2015.

1- Trop d’Apps non pertinentes sont lancées

Plusieurs marques dans différentes industries ont confié à Forrester avoir lancé plus de 150 Apps ne générant que quelques centaines de téléchargements.

Parallélement des marques comme Starbucks ou Nike + training club qui a généré 16 millions de téléchargement ont réussi leur percée dans les Appstores et auprès du grand public.

Selon Forrester, il faut lancer moins d’Apps, offrir des expériences contextuelles et surtout connecter et personnaliser les Apps  en les liant à la base CRM des sociétés.

2- Une minorité d’Apps offre de réelles expériences d’engagement

Seuls 9 Apps sur les 100 de l’index Forrester appartiennent à la catégorie “Addictive” . Ce sont souvent des Apps sociales comme Facebook, Snapchat, Pinterest, Instagram et What’sApps.

3- Les consommateurs passent la majorité de leur temps sur un nombre restreint d’Apps

image: http://www.viuz.com/wp-content/uploads/Etude-Forrester-temps-pass%C3%A9-sur-les-Apps-facebook-snapchat-youtube-google-Q4-2014.png

Etude Forrester temps passé sur les Apps facebook snapchat youtube google Q4 2014

 

Si les consommateurs américains et anglais utilisent en moyenne 24 apps par mois, ils passent en réalité 80% de leurs temps sur 5 apps sur leur smartphone et 56% sur 3 apps sur tablette aux US.

Peu d’Apps peuvent légitimement revendiquer le statut d’Apps “Plein écran” dans les foyers. Il vaut mieux emprunter son chemin à travers les applications mobiles les plus populaires souligne Forrester.

4- Les Apps mobile n’ont pas remplacé le Web Mobile

48% des utilisateurs accèdent au Web via leurs terminaux mobiles en France et 56% des utilisateurs américains utilisent Google une fois par semaine sur leur téléphone contre 57% pour les Apps . Par ailleurs précise Forrester, la majorité du traffic shopping va sur le webmobile.

L’institut d’étude appelle donc à une stratégie différenciée entre le Webmobile et les Apps natives. A l’heure actuelle seuls 48% des marketers ont adopté cette stratégie différenciée.

5- La plupart des Apps ne générent pas de revenus significatifs

60% des développeurs d’Apps gagnent moins de 500 dollars par mois. La majorité des revenus restent aujourd’hui encore concentrés chez les grands éditeurs de jeux mobiles.

Même si les marketers n’ont pas tous des objectifs immédiats de monétisation, Forrester recommande d’utiliser les In Apps purchase et le pricing contextuel afin d’améliorer les performances des Applications de marques à la manière d’Hotel Tonight et de quantifier la Total Value des Apps mobiles : préférence de marque, satisfaction client, et valeur accrue sur les canaux offline et les magasins physiques.

Enfin, parmi les grandes tendances 2015 pour l’Apps marketing Forrester isole les tendances suivantes

1- Les Apps à reach massif se transformeront en plateformes marketing

Les Apps sociales et les Apps de messagerie permettront aux marques d’offrir des expériences plus riches au sein de leurs Apps. (cf. L’intégration d’Uber dans Google Maps ou, en chine, la réservation de Taxi Didi Cache au sein de Snapchat, la Fourchette dans Trip Advisor).

L’institut d’étude recommande par ailleurs aux marques de travailler les Apps Extensions et les notifications afin d’exploiter les micro-moments et être visible, hors Apps, sur les terminaux et l’écran d’accueil des smartphones des utilisateurs.

2- Google et Twitter vont s’attaquer au lead de Facebook dans les Apps Install

Google va accélérer ses offres d’ Apps Install de même que Twitter avec ses nouvelles offres issues de ses rachat de MoPub et Crashalytics.

Mais, selon Forrester, le CPI (Cost Per Install) ne devrait pas pour autant décliner. En un an il a progressé de 59% (soure Fiksu). Parallèlement aux dispositifs d’installation, les marques doivent investir dans l’Apps Store optimisation  (ASO) et les Appstore Analytics recommande Thomas Husson.

3- Les dégroupage des Apps (Apps Unbundling) va forcer les directeurs marketing à revoir leurs stratégies

Le dégroupage accéléré ccommencé dans les Apps Facebook touche également Google, LinkedIn et Foursquare.

Pour les marques en revanche, la question d’une Apps par segment dotée de fonctionnalités limitées reste complexe et doit apprécier au cas par cas. Forrester note cependant un mouvement de réduction du nombre d’Apps dans certains groupes, comme ESPN qui est passé de 50 à 10 Apps l’année dernière.

4- Le Deep Linking devrait simplifier l’experience des Apps et l’exécution du marketing mobile

Cette indexation mobile et la capacité à fournir de vraies réponses In Apps, en une “touch”, est actuellement mis en avant par des Start-Ups comme URX et Quixey mais aussi par Google, Facebook et Twitter (suite au rachat de Tap Commerce).

Attention toutefois, comme le souligne Forrester, le deep linking est encore loin d’être un standard…Il convient d’expérimenter plusieurs solutions avant de faire un choix définitif.

5- L’Apps retargeting permettra d’optimiser ses campagnes mobiles

Déja très utilisées par les editeurs de jeux mobiles, ces possibilités marketing offertes par Facebook, Twitter, Criteo et Apps Flyer permettent d’isoler les utilisateurs les plus loyaux, maximiser le ré-engagement au sein des Apps tout en monetisant la base de clients existants et optimiser les budget marketing mobile.


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Shazam compagnon idéal de la pub via la réalité augmentée et les objets connectés

Shazam a de grandes ambitions, et elles dépassent largement le simple domaine de la reconnaissance musicale. Le service cherche à devenir en effet le compagnon « idéal » de certaines publicités et se rapprocher davantage des commerçants, en proposant par exemple des expériences de réalité augmentée.

De la musique à la publicité

Tout le monde ou presque connait Shazam, une petite application pratique permettant de reconnaitre facilement quelle musique est en train d’être écoutée. Si vous êtes par exemple dans un magasin et qu’une chanson sort des haut-parleurs, Shazam vous en donnera le titre, l’artiste, l’album dont elle est extraite et ainsi de suite. Le résultat est toujours accompagné de liens vers iTunes et autres boutiques, ainsi que quelques services de streaming comme Spotify et Rdio. Et le succès serait au rendez-vous puisque Shazam compterait pour 10 % de la musique achetée selon l’entreprise. Toutefois, en l’absence de détails sur la manière dont le chiffre a été calculé, on le prendra avec les pincettes de rigueur.

Mais elle ne compte justement pas s’arrêter là. Elle tient à faire de son service une porte vers des contenus supplémentaires en fonction d’un contexte particulier, essentiellement pour compléter la publicité. Certaines sociétés se sont déjà associées à Shazam et il suffit par exemple de dégainer l’application pendant que la publicité passe à la télévision pour obtenir des informations, à la manière finalement d’un QR-code audio. Il s’agirait donc d’un renforcement de cette activité puisque des essais ont déjà été faits dans ce domaine, notamment la publicité pour La Halle avec Jenifer.

The Next Web a pu interroger Rich Riley, PDG de Shazam, à ce sujet.  Les projets de l’entreprise sont nombreux pour cette année mais concernent avant tout le renforcement du service autour de la publicité. Les développeurs travaillent par exemple sur un « Shazam visuel » permettant de relier l’application à une expérience de vente dans des boutiques physiques, pour obtenir des coupons de réductions ou autres.

Fournir un contenu en fonction du contexte

Même la réalité augmentée est au programme. Au CES de Las Vegas, le PDG a ainsi fait la démonstration d’une publicité pour une Jaguar dans un magazine papier. En scannant la page, Shazam reconnait le contenu et propose automatiquement une expérience 3D à 360°. Il suffit alors de déplacer son téléphone pour observer l’habitacle du véhicule, comme si l’on se trouvait à la place du pilote.

On notera que ce type d’interaction existe déjà, comme Ikea l’a montré avec son catalogue depuis août 2013. La différence ici est que Shazam cherche à fédérer autour de sa plateforme les sociétés qui pourraient être intéressées par ce type d’expérience, en offrant un accès via l’une des applications mobiles les plus utilisées.

Shazam a également des ambitions dans le domaine des objets connectés et des « wearables ». Idéalement, l’application serait assez petite et économe en ressources pour pouvoir être utilisée sur des montres et autres, afin par exemple de pouvoir accéder à des contenus par simple pilotage vocal. Une fonctionnalité que l’on retrouve déjà avec Siri, Google Now et Cortana et il faudra voir comment Shazam compte se démarquer. De même, l’entreprise travaille sur des balises, nommées Shazam-In-Store, capables de fournir du contenu Shazam en fonction de l’endroit où l’utilisateur se tient dans un magasin.

Tout cela suppose évidemment des transferts de données et un stockage d’informations concernant l’utilisateur, même si elles ne sont pas nominales. À la lumière de toutes les attaques sur les deux dernières années, on peut donc se poser la question de savoir comment Shazam compte gérer la sécurité de l’ensemble. Rich Riley n’a cependant pas été prolixe sur le sujet, indiquant simplement que des mesures de protection avaient été prises, et que les données n’avaient pas vocation à transiter vers d’autres entreprises.

[Infographic] How the App Stores “Really” Stack Up

[Infographic] How the App Stores “Really” Stack Up.

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This post is part of our ReadWriteMobile channel, which is dedicated to helping its community understand the strategic business and technical implications of developing mobile applications. This channel is sponsored by Alcatel-Lucent.

If you liken app stores to race horses, Apple is the biggest, baddest thoroughbred in town. Google Play is a fine specimen with some distinct qualities but has a lot of work to do in the practice yard before catching up. Everything else is an also-ran. Windows Phone has been growing rapidly, increasing from 40,000 apps in Nov. 2011 to 70,000 at the most recent count. Then there is BlackBerry App World. For all of Research In Motion’s troubles, its app repository is tied with Windows Phone at 70,000, which includes 15,000 specifically designed for the BlackBerry PlayBook. There are no tablet apps in the Windows Phone Marketplace, mostly because there is no Windows tablet (well, one worth anything).

German BlackBerry blog BlogBerry.de sent us over an infographic (through its content promotion specialist BlueGrass Interactive) breaking down the “reality” of the native app stores. It quotes RIM VP of developer relations Alec Saunders as saying 13% of BlackBerry developers have made $100,000 or more off their apps. We have heard this song and dance before. Take a look at the infographic below and let us know in the comments what you think of the BlackBerry App World, its quality of apps and whether or not it is a wise business decision to build any apps for the BlackBerry platform these days.

app_stores_infographic.jpg

Streaming Music Has a Problem—It’s a Huge Success | Adweek

Streaming Music Has a Problem—It’s a Huge Success | Adweek

In late September, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek was the first guest Mark Zuckerberg introduced on stage during his keynote speech at the f8 developer conference, which introduced the network’s new media consumption features.

That night, Sean Parker—Napster founder, early Facebook executive and Spotify investor—threw a lavish warehouse party for conference attendees, serving roast pig and lobster during performances by Snoop Dogg, The Killers, Jane’s Addiction and Kaskade. The next-day posts declaring which users were listening to what bands on Spotify trickled into Facebook’s feeds.

The integration helped earn Spotify an additional 4 million

It was likely no coincidence that the month Spotify landed, digital DJ site Turntable.fm launched, also gratis—and with no clear business model—and, soon after, MOG and Rdio, which also participated in the Facebook integration, launched free versions of their subscription-based services. Around that time, Myxer, known for its mobile ringtones, apps and wallpapers, announced Myxer Social Radio, a free music-streaming service. Clear Channel unveiled an amped-up version of iHeartRadio, its previously quiet three-year-old digital service, also free. Even Pandora, the reigning Internet radio champ fresh off its IPO, got into the act, increasing its limit on free streaming from 40 hours per month to 320. It was a free-streaming free-for-all.

But nothing online is ever really free. The online music industry is in a unique, catch-22 situation: The more successful it is, the more money flies out the door. Digital music companies pay dearly for the rights to stream music. Pandora, for example, turned a profit for the first time this past November—10 years since its launch—thanks to onerous licensing agreements requiring it to pay a fee each time a song is streamed. The firm’s peers, including the smaller players, also pay a hefty rate each time a song is played. The services will never outgrow their costs, an unfortunate arrangement commentators have dubbed a “suicide pact.”

And subscription revenue, a much smaller business, is not enough. The streaming services need advertising dollars, and they have monies previously allotted to broadcast budgets in their crosshairs. It is, in general, a well-trod story: New medium goes after old ad dollars. But in this case, the stakes are unusually high. Online radio’s very survival depends on stealing ad dollars from its traditional counterpart, and it needs to do it fast.

“When [streaming services] look at the pool of radio dollars, which is immense, and ask if there’s a logic to joining that category, it’s impossible not to be seduced by the opportunity,” says Mark Ramsey, president of consultancy Mark Ramsey Media.

EMarketer has estimated online radio would secure $800 million in advertising in the U.S. by the end of 2011, compared with traditional radio’s behemoth $15.7 billion. (The Radio Advertising Bureau’s official 2010 number, which includes off-air ads, is $17.3 billion.) It’s a small but growing sum that increases by 20 percent each year, and eMarketer expects it to hit $1.6 billion by 2015. (All numbers exclude Pandora and Spotify.)

Nine of the top 10 auto brands including Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota were running online radio ads as of September 2011, according to IAB’s Digital Audio Advertising Overview. The same goes for nine of the top 10 retail marketers like Target, Macy’s and Walmart; nine of the top 10 restaurant marketers such as Wendy’s, Taco Bell and McDonald’s; eight of the top 10 financial services marketers, including American Express, Bank of America and Chase; and seven of the top 10 telecom marketers, including AT&T (which was the top spender on traditional radio advertising, according to the RAB). Thus far, the money they’re spending mostly comes from digital campaign allocations, not the radio side.

But streaming music user growth is outpacing ad growth. Online listening is on par with streaming video and playing games as one of the most widely adopted Internet activities in mature markets (France, Germany, Japan and the U.S.), according to a 2010 Accenture study. In the U.S., 89 million people listen to online radio each month, and 57 million each week, according to Arbitron and Edison Research, a number that’s doubled every five years since 2001. Pandora alone has captured 4.3 percent of the U.S. radio market share; its 100 million users streamed 2.1 billion hours of music in Q3 2011, more than doubling what it streamed in 2010, it says.

The availability of streaming music on smartphones, which are increasingly car connected, is notable for the ability to displace both private collections (once stored on iPods) and radio. Importantly, the vast majority—estimates of 80 percent—of traditional radio listening is done in a car. Pandora and MOG have negotiated deals for their apps to arrive preinstalled in the control panels of a number of vehicles. Mercedes, Cadillac, Hyundai, General Motors and Toyota work with Pandora and MOG, which hired veteran Nissan engineer Martin Zacharias to lead its auto efforts, is available in new BMWs and Minis. The digital streaming players are quickly outgrowing niche status.

Their advertising is racing to catch up. Pandora has always derived the majority of its income from ads—sales for last quarter accounted for $66 million of its $75 million in revenue (only $668,000 of which counted as profits). Once entirely focused on digital ad dollars, Pandora is now making a concerted effort to dip into traditional allocations, putting together a hybrid sales team consisting of digital sellers and traditional radio sales people in local markets, says John Trimble, the company’s chief revenue officer.

“We’re certainly going heavier and harder into the traditional broadcast marketplace, advertising-wise,” Trimble says. With the disproportionate user-to-ad sales growth leaving Pandora sitting on unsold inventory, filling it, he says, requires “converting an entire marketplace and convincing them of the value of where the consumer is going.”

As for Spotify, around the time of its Facebook partnership, the company hired AOL alum Jeff Levick to run its U.S. sales operations. Of its 10 million global users, only 2.5 million shell out $4.99 per month for ad-free streaming. While traditional radio ilk (and even Pandora execs on occasion) claim that on-demand services exist to convert users to subscriptions, Levick argues that Spotify’s free, ad-supported product is “a huge part of the company strategy.” Once a free user’s six-month trial runs out, they’ll face listening caps and increased ads, but the service will never cut off entirely. “Free has to remain free, and that’s where the advertising lives,” says Levick. It’s going to be an uphill battle. In 2010, Spotify earned some $99 million, around $71 million of which came from subscriptions. The company paid out slightly more than its earnings in royalty fees.

Dave Marsey, Digitas’ group media director, says as consumption habits shift, Digitas has been making the case to use dollars from traditional radio allocations on streaming music sites. The targeting ability of digital is a key selling point, he says, as it goes beyond traditional radio’s location and time-of-day targeting. Listeners control the music they hear, so advertisers can target based on mind-set, something experiential marketers (like travel or financial services) benefit most from, he says. A genre, station, artist or playlist that’s explicitly chosen by the user tells advertisers what mood he or she is in—Nirvana in the afternoon, or Beatles in the morning, for example. That helps shape the advertiser’s approach, Marsey says.

But there are challenges for marketers and buyers that consider dipping into their traditional buckets. Foremost among them is one of definition: Are Pandora, Spotify and their peers digital, or are they radio?

“When people don’t understand what bucket you’re in, they can’t buy you,” Ramsey says.

A rise in streaming audio spots is also muddying the picture. As streaming usage migrates to mobile (70 percent of Pandora’s listening is via smartphones, for example) and vehicles (which utilize smartphones), the ads need to look and feel a lot more like traditional broadcast spots than display ads. While advertisers like the less cluttered feel of a single audio ad on Pandora or Spotify compared with a pod of ads on broadcast, they don’t believe mobile display ads command the attention that a desktop ad might, says Gaye Sussman, president of agency ID Media, which does traditional and digital buys for the likes of Verizon and Nationwide Insurance. Filling that mobile inventory with audio spots, supported by broadcast-allocated ad dollars, requires that streaming services are defined as radio, not digital.

Providing audience data that traditional radio advertisers understand would go a long way in helping to convince advertisers that their traditional ad money is in good hands online. Last fall, Pandora presented audience and listening data in terms similar to those reported by Arbitron, the industry standard for radio metrics. The ostensible move to introduce an “apples-to-apples” comparison of digital to traditional caused a panic among broadcasters (one called the comparison “worse than apples to oranges, more like grapefruits to footballs”), and has left advertisers in the lurch.

Jeff Haley, CEO of the RAB, notes that the streaming services and broadcast stations are measured by two very distinct methodologies. But Pandora isn’t backing down. “Broadcast radio companies are clearly afraid of what an accurate apples-to-apples measurement with Internet radio will show to radio,” a Pandora spokesperson wrote in an email to Adweek.

It’s a prickly situation. “You have to make sure that . . . while you make the traditional market comfortable with how they look at digital media, you don’t end up reverse engineering the measurement of our new market into the old market,” warns Eyal Goldwerger, CEO of digital audio ad platform TargetSpot.

Meanwhile, streaming services continue to rustle up new money from marketers’ digital allocations. Marsey says 30 percent to 40 percent of Digitas’ clients advertise on digital streaming services, and that many of the buys have, in the last year, graduated from the “test budget” into a regular spot on the digital buying plan.

And as with digital publishing, the streaming services are doing their best to make buys attractive to traditional radio marketers, racing to out-innovate each other with even more compelling, engaging and elaborate ad formats. MOG’s free streaming, for instance, is supported by interactive advertising. Users accumulate credit by, say, watching a movie trailer or streaming a playlist created by a brand. Grooveshark, which unlike its peers doesn’t even bother with audio, is betting its future on elaborate display ad packages. Paul Geller, Grooveshark’s senior vice president of external affairs, says these packages boast a clickthrough rate of 1 percent to 1.5 percent, a slight bump from the paltry U.S. average of 0.08 percent. The company makes 70 percent of its revenue through advertising, supplemented by music marketing data it sells to artists, labels and managers. Similar to MOG, users can exchange their time—here in the form of surveys about music—to earn points toward ad-free listening.

Pandora’s menu of ad options includes mobile Tap to Call and Add to Calendar functions, and special content packages like Pepsi’s sponsorship of Grammy-related mixtapes, artist videos and genre stations.

In November, Spotify opened its API to third-party app developers. The launch group consisted of publications like Rolling Stone and music-related services like concert tracker Songkick, but in the future, advertisers will be able to interact with users through the apps as well. “It’s early days, and the possibilities are endless,” a Spotify spokesperson says.

Regardless of how users experience the ads, the rich variety of listening options has certainly made a dent in the time users spend on radio’s onetime listening monopoly. Digital’s ability to displace broadcast radio is unclear; broadcast executives, of course, deny a threat—while simultaneously entering the medium themselves.

“As much as [Pandora and Spotify] would like to dress it up as something else, it’s a playlist. It’s a music collection and a jukebox,” says John Hogan, CEO of radio at Clear Channel. (Music collections and jukeboxes have never had advertising before.) And while Clear Channel, which owns 800 broadcast stations, has sunk several million dollars into a glitzy, star-studded relaunch of iHeartRadio—now more Pandora-like than its predecessor, with customization functionality and 150 digital-only channels—Hogan says, “[iHeartRadio] is not a business. It’s a feature, one part of what we can do.”

Streaming music services are “not radio substitutes any more than your Walkman, CD collection or iPod ever was,” adds Lew Dickey, CEO, president and chairman of Cumulus Media, the second-largest radio operator in the country with 570 stations. They are threats to CDs and downloads, and not free local radio, which 93 percent of Americans listen to each week, he says.

Still, that has not stopped Dickey from wading into digital streaming, with Cumulus attaching itself to radio behemoth Clear Channel to do so. In December, the companies announced an alliance where Cumulus’ stations will stream digitally through Clear Channel’s iHeartRadio service. (In return, Clear Channel’s terrestrial radio stations will promote sales from Cumulus’ daily deals arm, SweetJack.) The partnership’s news bulletin made no effort to pussyfoot around its intention: “Clear Channel Radio and Cumulus Media Announce Partnership to Compete With Pandora in Digital Radio and Groupon in Daily Deals.”

As consumption of all media shifts online, both sides—their respective diss wars aside—will likely need to act more like the other in order to sell their ad inventory.

“Broadcast versus digital is a misconception,” says TargetSpot’s Goldwerger. In fact, a study from the firm shows that when an advertiser adds digital audio ads to an existing broadcast campaign, it increases the average response by 3.5 times, and the reverse equation—adding traditional radio to an Internet campaign—increases response rates twofold. Meanwhile, the groundwork for cooperation is being laid. The 62-year-old RAB is working with the IAB to spread awareness of digital radio with the hope of also spreading the spending ad love, Haley says.

Advertisers will have no choice but to go where the listeners are, digital or terrestrial. The problem for the streaming services is that they need to stick around long enough for that eventuality. The cost of failure is high. Spotify has more than $237 million in venture investments, the latest round valuing the company at $1 billion. Pandora’s market cap, which spiked at $4.2 billion on its first day of trading, now hovers around $1.65 billion. And Rdio, MOG, Slacker, Grooveshark, Myxer and Turntable have gathered $130 million—no small feat—in investments among them.

In the same way online video and search created entirely new streams of ad revenue, the industry hopes—even needs—online radio to do the same thing. It’s a common—and catchy—refrain

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The Top 12 Social Trends in ‘12

The Top 12 Social Trends in ‘12.

With the new year upon us and 2011 in the rear view mirror, it’s time to pay attention to where social media will go this year. In December, the Ogilvy Digital Influence New York City team hosted its year end 2011 Social Trends Lab. The team predicted 12 trends we think will shape and influence 2012. Is there a prediction you don’t see on this list? Let us know! social-media-predictions-360

And now without further ado, here is the Ogilvy Digital Influence crowdsourced Top 12 in ‘12 list of predictions in social media trends (in no particular order).

  1. Social Television goes mainstream. David A. Brooks and Chris Heydt said the trend to watch  is the emergence of Social Television.  New technology will have an effect on the television industry much like Apple iOS and Android had on the popularization of the smartphone mobile market. David noted, “It has gone beyond simply dual screen. Just like you had the advent of smartphones you will see TV technology being revolutionized which will alter viewing habits.” One area Chris said to pay attention will be advertising and engagement. “New ads in this forum using never before seen engagement technology will be able to garner instant reaction.”
  2. Social ROI must become real. Maya Swedowsky said the debate about ROI must be clarified and made concrete in 2012. Facebook analytics need to show better tracking in order to appease the 1 in 3 CMOs demanding to see how their marketing budget invested in social actually has a direct effect on consumer purchase. “Facebook metrics need to go deeper to show if marketing spends are actually worth the investment. Currently, the analytics are unable to show this but will need to in order to get CMOs to continue to invest in the platform.”
  3. Mobile apps will be the main communication tools between brands and consumers. In the week between Christmas and New Year’s users downloaded 1 billion apps. Yes, you read that correctly, 1 billion. Rose Reid thinks certain apps will become just as popular as the platforms that help amplify them. Case in point is Instagram. Instagram as a community platform will grow in 2012. “A brand will eventually tap this platform to carry out an initiative. They may use other platforms to amplify the program, but more app-specific social marketing programs beyond Facebook and Twitter will expand as a result of more people owning mobile smartphone technology which prompts them to use apps as daily utilities.”
  4. News sources that harness the power of social will be credible alternatives to traditional media outlets. Layla Revis thinks one platform to watch in this area is newsmotion.org. She thinks it will emerge as an alternative to mainstream media news. “As new technologies collide with world-changing events, the independent voice (or tweet) has emerged as a major player in news media. Like Alternet and Huffington Post, a citizen news platform like Newsmotion.org is a growing trend to watch.” The innovative platform where civic media and citizen reporting converge to connect new audiences to valuable stories, resources, and — most importantly — each other is definitely a new journalism model for 2012
  5. Social media functionality will further integrate into digital website properties. Geoffrey Colon thinks the website of the future will be laid out in 2012 with new design and user experiences. “The website as we’ve known it is evolving. Brands that have a website and a Facebook and Twitter presence and a mobile application need to merge all of these experiences together to create a unique and friendly web user experience. People are spending 8.5 hours per month on Facebook based on 2011 Nielsen research. Why would a consumer want to visit a brand website when they have community on the Facebook page or get updates on their Twitter feed? If the company website had Facebook or Twitter plug-ins integrated with the open graph this is one way brands can help customers get closer to their owned property. This actually helps brands get more from brand advocates by linking their web properties to real time conversations.” As a result, Colon thinks social aggregators will be popular on company websites and CMOs can use this data to create targeted marketing messages in real time.
  6. Apps on Facebook will become the main amplifier of brand messaging. Max Kelerstein and Stephen Cooper both think there will be an influx of apps on Facebook due to the new open graph. The ownership of verbs to track engagement and personalize a brand on one’s newsfeed will only take place with a good app that ties back to the brand message. Kelerstein states, “Making verbs personal and tying them into a unique app with great functionality is the only way many brands will ever end up in one’s social feed.” Although users tweet and post about brands, it’s more likely they will show brand love through interaction of a seamless and frictionless app in which they enjoy engaging. Case in point is the popularity of such apps as Spotify and Nike+. So brands can reach their advocates through all the clutter, a paid/earned model will become part of all successful brand marketing campaigns in launching an app.
  7. Brands will become publishers and not simply curators.  Sophia Aladenoye thinks that content production and strategy will continue to grow tremendously in 2012. Brands will be expected to be content publishers, producers & planners – pushing them to become more flexible, imaginative and proactive in the creation of great content to sustain interaction with the millions of people who follow them. People, across various social networks, will expect brands to provide them with consistent & fun content that spans across platforms. Brands that embrace this challenge and focus on developing an online personality that is easily recognizable via first, second and third-party brand content will win (in the space of online attention & relationships) moving forward.
  8. A content sharing strategy will be just as important as a content production strategy. It’s not enough to simply create good content in 2012. All brands are slowly becoming publishers. Brands will now have plan accordingly to actually create good content that can be shared. It’s the end of the “produce content, push it out and make it go viral” flowchart. A brand planning efficiently can have as much of an effect pushing through social channels as they did pushing through traditional avenues.
  9. Privacy issues will lead to rewriting personal history in the social realm. In the advent of social media, many users were carefree to share everything. This included controversial tweets and photos. Like people, brands may have disharmony in their social history. And many (unfortunately) will go about the practice of editing that history where it may seem harmful to the brand. Geoffrey Colon noted that the new Timeline on Facebook will probably lead many to edit their social history for fear of losing out on a job or to not embarrass themselves to friends or family. “Brands most likely will also have a similar timeline user interface on Facebook and many will be quick to edit any negativity to present themselves as pristine to potential consumers. Tools empowering the deletion of photos, omissions from their timeline and other actions to help protect their reputation will be the norm.”
  10. Healthcare and B2B will adopt what B2C brands have been doing for the last five years in social. Most consumers are used to engaging with CPGs like a favorite soda or fashion brand. But many will finally be able to communicate and do business with companies that were more conservative in getting involved in the social space. Digital health specialist Priya Kapoor says the space to watch in 2012 is in the healthcare social media space. “In 2011, we saw a lot of activity in the space from pharmaceutical, physicians, hospitals and patients alike. We’ve also seen how platforms such as Facebook and YouTube working with risk-adverse pharma companies so they can reach key audiences. But all of this was done at a sluggish pace as the industry awaited guidance from the FDA.” With the category ending the year by acknowledging the space with newly drafted guidance, we can expect to see healthcare and B2B finally go 2.0 and beyond in 2012.
  11. Social commerce is adopted across the board. Remember all those crazy crowds and long lines on Black Friday 2012? That will be an image of the past as retailers will adopt location-based apps to help consumers with purchase in the real world which in turn drives publicity, brand awareness and CRM. Imagine this, you check- in on Foursquare. Automatically, you are asked if you want to pay using the brand app. You download the app, scan the mouse bar code, get a subtotal, and you hit OK to purchase. The app takes the amount right out of your checking account, bills your credit card or debits a pre-existing gift card. Your receipt is emailed and you’re on your way out of the store to your next destination. Starbucks already does this using smartphones with a register scanner. More retailers want to make noise in this realm as customers will amplify how lovely the experience is and thus, we’ll see more of it in 2012
  12. Brands will become more nimble along with their agency partners.Social is a 24/7/365 business. And consumers are always talking. While brands are planning with their agencies, they’re talking. Smarter agency partners will tell their clients that they must use social to actually adopt real time messaging. For a long period of time, social sat in a silo and didn’t reflect the larger brand message. That is now history just like 2011. Smarter CMOs and agency execs know that social conversation needs to be utilized not to simply see what was happening in the past, but to communicate in real time based on current social conversation. While conversations are happening about a brand across a variety of platforms, whether it’s positive or negative, a brand can shape what it wants to talk about immediately. Not ten months from now via a television advertisement.
  13. Trends from 2011 we enjoyed: What would a forecast list of the future be without what we enjoyed this past year? Here’s some of our favorite social items from 2011: Spotify, Instagram, Socialcam, Pinterest, Path, Foursquare, Twitter reboot, YouTube reboot, Facebook timeline, Google+ launch, tablet app creation and strategy, social CRM, social business, Kim Kardashian

Six Predictions for Digital Business in 2012 – Andrew McAfee – Harvard Business Review

Six Predictions for Digital Business in 2012 – Andrew McAfee – Harvard Business Review.

1. The iPad will gain some worthy adversaries. 
When Amazon’s Kindle Fire came out I wrote that the tablet wars were starting in earnest, and when I hear Eric Schmidtpromise a “highest quality” Android tablet in 2012 I get excited to see what’s coming. Thanks to tablets and smartphones we’re moving past the PC’s longstanding WIMP interface paradigm (windows, icons, menus, pointers [i.e. cursors]) into one I’m calling VEST — voice, eyes, speech, and touch — that will change what computing devices we use most often, and how we interact with them.

2. A Fortune 500 company will move its productivity and collaboration apps to the cloud.
Berkeley has just explained why it chose Google for its campus-wide email and calendaring apps, so some pretty large organizations are starting to move into the Cloud. I predict at least one big-company CEO will walk away from the on-premises status quo in 2012. If so, it’ll be a fascinating experiment to watch.

3. A web-native bank will appear and inspire fanatical devotion among its customers. 
OK, this one is more of a blind hope / cry for help than a prediction. But I’m thoroughly tired of the way incumbent financial services firms treat their customers and neglect their web environments. I want this old, sleepy cartel upset by an online newcomer who cares about what customers want and knows how to deliver it to them.

4. There will be at least one instance of a science fiction technology becoming reality.
I don’t know what this is going to be — exoskeletons for the disabled? working brain control of real-world objects? — but I’m very sure it’s coming. The past couple years have given us cars that drive themselves and computers that win at Jeopardy! Anyone think those are the last of the amazing digital innovations? Me neither.

5. Job prospects and wages will not improve much for the average American worker.
Unfortunately, any honest list of my predictions for 2012 has to include this one. The two forces of trade and technology are combining to create a tough labor market for lots of workers in the U.S., particularly those without specialized skills. I deeply wish things would get better for them, but I don’t think they’re going to. If you want to learn more about why I think this, check out Race Against the Machine, the ebook I published this past fall with Erik Brynjolsson.

6. The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries. 
This prediction might seem incompatible with the previous one, but it’s not. Even U.S. workers facing grim job prospects are benefitting from technology’s ability to lower prices and improve quality over time. And freedom, trade, and technology have combined over the past generation to improve conditions for literally billions of people around the world. These happy trends will continue. I am sure of it. Sharp-eyed readers will have realized that the wording of this prediction is not mine; it comes from the late economist Julian Simon, and it ends with the words “most of the time, indefinitely.” He’s right.

What do you think? Which of these predictions do you think are spot on? Which miss the mark, or are flat-out delusional? Leave a comment and let us know.

Mobile App Inflection Point: 25 Billion Apps Downloaded in 2011

Mobile App Inflection Point: 25 Billion Apps Downloaded in 2011.

his post is part of our ReadWriteMobile channel, which is dedicated to helping its community understand the strategic business and technical implications of developing mobile applications. This channel is sponsored by Alcatel-Lucent. As you’re exploring these resources, check out this helpful resource from our sponsors: Cultivating a Developer Ecosystem: Understanding Their Needs

flurry_150x150.jpgMobile analytics company Flurry estimates that application downloads to Android and iOS will hit 25 billion in 2011. That is a 300% jump from 2010, when six billion were downloaded. Of those 25 billion, five billion are expected to come in December as consumers buy new smartphones and start downloading to satisfy their insatiable hunger for mobile goodness.

Smartphones have hit an inflection point. It is not the one we are waiting for quite yet (when 50% of all U.S. consumers have smartphones) but growth like this happens when critical mass of adoption has been realized and a behavior once reserved for early adopters becomes the cultural norm.

Around 43% of U.S. consumers have smartphones. It is likely that the 50% inflection point will come before Q3 of 2012. What will app downloads look like then? There is no way that 300% growth year-over-year can be sustained but the exponential rates will continue throughout the rest of this decade until smartphones and app adoption reaches the point of cultural ubiquity.

Flurry says that revenues from app downloads will reach $2.5 billion this year. In the New York Times story about Flurry’s data, there is no breakdown on where that revenue is broken down between paid downloads, in-app purchases, freemium services or advertising. It is likely that revenue number will double next year as more apps are downloaded and a lot of the marketing programsanalyticsservices, engagement activities and all the push notifications tied to those solutions mature and become more prevalent.

The NYT article also does not break that revenue down by platform. How is the pie sliced between Android and iOS? Android developers have long lamented that the platform is not conducive to making money and that is one of the reasons why developers first look to iOS with new apps before moving to Android. It used to be that iOS was just an easier environment to develop for and make great looking apps, but that particular barrier has eroded in 2011 with a plethora of terrific Android apps coming to the platform.

There is also the question of how the rest of the ecosystem will evolve or devolve. My biggest question for 2012 is: what is going to happen to Research In Motion? Will the ecosystem rebound and if so, how will its app ecosystem grow with it? Same goes for Windows Phone 7, which has positioned itself well to have a growing and robust application ecosystem that developers can monetize well.

If 25 billion apps were downloaded in 2011, developers, carriers, OEMs and consumers should be getting excited for what is going to happen in 2012 and beyond. What are your expectations for the mobile ecosystem in the coming year?

The Flurry Blog – Mobile Application Analytics | iPhone Analytics | Android Analytics

The Flurry Blog – Mobile Application Analytics | iPhone Analytics | Android Analytics.

Although the Internet entered the mainstream a mere 15 years ago, life without it today is nearly incomprehensible.  And our use of the web has rapidly changed as well.  In simple terms, it has evolved from online directories (Yahoo!) to search engines (Google) and now to social media (Facebook).  Built on the desktop and notebook PC platform, the web’s popularity is significant.

Today, however, a new platform shift is taking place.  In 2011, for the first time, smartphone and tablet shipments exceed those of desktop and notebook shipments (source: Mary Meeker, KPCB, see slide 7).  This move means a new generation of consumers expects their smartphones and tablets to come with instant broadband connectively so they, too, can connect to the Internet.

In this report, Flurry compares how daily interactive consumption has changed over the last 12 months between the web (both desktop and mobile web) and mobile native apps.  For Internet consumption, we built a model using publicly available data from comScore and Alexa.  For mobile application usage, we used Flurry Analytics data, now exceeding 500 million aggregated, anonymous use sessions per day across more than 85,000 applications.  We estimate this accounts for approximately one third of all mobile application activity, which we scaled-up accordingly for this analysis.

Our analysis shows that, for the first time ever, daily time spent in mobile apps surpasses desktop and mobile web consumption.  This stat is even more remarkable if you consider that it took less than three years for native mobile apps to achieve this level of usage, driven primarily by the popularity of iOS and Android platforms.  Let’s take a look at the numbers.

Chart MobileApp vs DesktopWeb Consumption resized 600

The preceding chart compares the average number of minutes consumers spend per day in mobile native apps vs. the web.  For mobile apps, Flurry tracks iOS, Android, BlackBerry, Windows Phone and J2ME.  And for the web, our figures include the open web, Facebook and the mobile web.

Flurry found that the average user now spends 9% more time using mobile apps than the Internet.  This was not the case just 12 months ago.  Last year, the average user spent just under 43 minutes a day using mobile applications versus an average 64 minutes using the Internet.  Growing at 91% over the last year, users now spend over 81 minutes on mobile applications per day.  This growth has come primarily from more sessions per user, per day rather than a large growth in average session lengths.  Time spent on the Internet has grown at a much slower rate, 16% over the last year, with users now spending 74 minutes on the Internet a day.

As a note of interest, Facebook has increasingly taken its share of time spent on the Internet, now making up 14 of the 74 minutes spent per day by consumers, or about one sixth of all Internet minutes.  Considering Facebook’s recent leak regarding Project Spartan, an effort to run apps within its service on top of the mobile Safari browser, thus disintermediating Apple, it appears Facebook seeks to counter both Apple and Google’s increasing control over consumers as mobile app usage proliferates.

Games & Social Networking Dominate Mobile App Usage

With mobile app usage soaring, Flurry additionally studied which categories most occupy consumers’ time.  For this snapshot, Flurry captured time spent per category from May 2011 across all apps it tracks, now totaling more than 85,000.  The results are shown in the pie chart below.

Mobile App Consumption by Category

The chart clearly shows that Games and Social Networking categories capture the significant majority of consumers’ time.  Consumers spend nearly half their time using Games, and a third in Social Networking apps.  Combined, these two categories control a whopping 79% of consumers’ total app time.  Further, as we drill down into the data, consumers use these two categories more frequently, and for longer average session lengths, compared to other categories.  Any way we slice it, Games and Social Networking apps deliver the most engaging experience on mobile today.

With a better understanding of how consumers spend their time across app categories, Facebook’s Project Spartan makes even more sense.  As a category, social networking – which is Facebook’s core competency – commands the second largest allocation of consumers’ time.  Games, which typify the most popular kind of app played on the Facebook platform itself, are also the top categories on both Android and iOS platforms.  As interactive media usage continues to shift from the web to mobile apps, one thing is certain: Facebook, Apple and Google will all expend significant resources to ensure that no one company dominates owning the direct relationship with the consumer.