Gartner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2015

Gartner’s Top 10 Predictions for 2015 | IT World Canada Blog.

By Daryl Plummer
Gartner, Inc.

Digitalization and the digital business are catalysts of change that are affecting the human-machine relationship and driving better customer outcomes. The top 10 predictions indicate that computer-based machines are taking a more active role in enhancing human endeavors, because the machines are more connected than ever before, they are sensing their surroundings, and they are becoming smarter. Because of this, they have an increased ability to supplement (or even supplant) human jobs and to reduce the cost of operations. All in all, the trends indicate a near-term future in which machines and humans are co-workers and, possibly, even codependents.

The top 10 Predictions are organized into three categories:

Machines are taking a more-active role in enhancing human endeavors:

1. By 2018, digital business will require 50 percent less business process workers and 500 percent more key digital business jobs, compared with traditional models.
Near-Term Flag: 
By year-end 2016, 50 percent of digital transformation initiatives will be unmanageable due to lack of portfolio management skills, leading to a measurable negative lost market share.

2. By 2017, a significant disruptive digital business will be launched that was conceived by a computer algorithm.
Near-Term Flag:
 Through 2015, the most highly valued initial public offerings (IPOs) will involve companies that combine digital markets with physical logistics to challenge pure physical legacy business ecosystems.

3. By 2018, the total cost of ownership for business operations will be reduced by 30 percent through smart machines and industrialized services.
Near-Term Flag: 
By 2015, there will be more than 40 vendors with commercially available managed services offerings leveraging smart machines and industrialized services.

4. By 2020, developed world life expectancy will increase by 0.5 years due to widespread adoption of wireless health monitoring technology.
Near-Term Flag: 
By 2017, costs for diabetic care are reduced by 10 percent through the use of smartphones.

Digitalized things are making assisted economic decisions:

5. By year-end 2016, more than $2 billion in online shopping will be performed exclusively by mobile digital assistants.
Near-Term Flag: 
By year-end 2015, mobile digital assistants will have taken on tactical mundane processes such as filling out names, addresses and credit card information.

6. By 2017, U.S. customers’ mobile engagement behavior will drive mobile commerce revenue in the U.S. to 50 percent of U.S. digital commerce revenue.
Near-Term Flag: 
A renewed interest in mobile payment will arise in 2015, together with a significant increase in mobile commerce (due in part to the introduction of Apple Pay and similar efforts by competitors, such as Google increasing efforts to drive adoption of its NFC-enabled Google Wallet).

Renovating the customer experience is a digital priority:

7. By 2017, 70 percent of successful digital business models will rely on deliberately unstable processes designed to shift as customer needs shift.
Near-Term Flag: 
By the end of 2015, five percent of global organizations will design “supermaneuverable” processes that provide competitive advantage.

8. By 2017, 50 percent of consumer product investments will be redirected to customer experience innovations.
Near-Term Flag: 
By 2015, more than half of traditional consumer products will have native digital extensions.

9. By 2017, nearly 20 percent of durable goods e-tailers will use 3D printing (3DP) to create personalized product offerings.
Near-Term Flag: 
By 2015, more than 90 percent of durable goods e-tailers will actively seek external partnerships to support the new “personalized” product business models.

10. By 2020, retail businesses that utilize targeted messaging in combination with internal positioning systems (IPS) will see a five percent increase in sales.
Near-Term Flag: 
By 2016, there will be an increase in the number of offers from retailers focused on customer location and the length of time in store.


Read more: http://www.itworldcanada.com/blog/gartners-top-10-predictions-for-2015/100406#ixzz3LNqmktXh
or visit http://www.itworldcanada.com for more Canadian IT News 

Gartner Predicts Live Video Broadcasting Will Be the New “Selfie” By 2017

Connected-Home Experiences Will Center on Video and Apps

Video and visual technologies are becoming increasingly important for interacting with customers and each other, according to Gartner, Inc. Gartner predicts that by 2017, live video broadcasting will be the new “selfie” and recommends that product managers start creating a “visual” strategy straight away to accommodate this trend.

“The next generation of consumer services and products has one main theme in common and that is video,” said Brian Blau, research director at Gartner. “This means incorporating live video or other real-time technologies into products to engage users in live events and enable more personalized communications, providing better customer support, and offering best-of-breed video and TV experiences to connected homes.”

Over the next four years, Gartner expects a noteworthy shift from static photos to video, with live video becoming as important a medium. This will be a significant development as in 2014 alone, more than a trillion photos will be taken, uploaded and shared daily, and the sharp rise in the popularity of online photos shows no signs of slowing. Although live and user-generated video is still less accessible than static photography, it is also growing in popularity.

Beyond its potential to be a richer medium for self-expression, live video’s use cases surpass what static images and prerecorded video can accomplish. It can be used for remote monitoring (of a baby, or of the security of a company’s premises), remote doctor-patient consultations and remote collaboration (via shared workspaces), and for improved customer service. As live video technology becomes more accessible, it will appear in many contexts, from mobile apps for consumers to customer support services. To benefit, users will need robust bandwidth, devices and cameras, as well as apps and services that capitalize on video’s communicative power.

Gartner made a number of further predictions about the connected home, including:

By 2018, 76 percent of connected-home apps will be accessible from smart TVs.

Smart TVs are fast becoming mass-market products. Gartner’s 2014 consumer survey indicates that almost 25 percent of U.S. households own a smart TV. In Germany, the figure is 32 percent. Gartner forecasts that worldwide, 87 percent of the TVs shipped annually will be smart TVs by 2018. This will result in such devices becoming very common in homes.

Gartner Predicts Live Video Broadcasting Will Be the New

“Despite the typically slow replacement cycle for TV sets, smart TV penetration is growing steadily,” said Fernando Elizalde, principal research analyst at Gartner. “Smart TVs are already central to the provision of connected-home entertainment. These devices can serve as access points for the control and management of other connected home devices. Applications to control and monitor home security cameras, door locks, thermostats and other connected devices are just some of many connected-home applications that could work well through smart TVs.”

Recent industry developments will bring management and control apps to smart TVs. However, the fragmentation of smart TV platforms makes it difficult for connected-home device manufacturers and app developers to focus on this “fourth screen” for access and management apps — except for media and entertainment devices. Nevertheless, as connected devices slowly gain momentum, and as an app presence on multiple screens becomes first a differentiator and then a must-have feature, smart TV apps for connected devices will reach parity with smartphone and tablet apps.

By 2018, connected-home services will cost 50 percent less than they do now.

Price could be a major factor in low adoption rates of connected-home services. Although current pricing plans offered by providers are relatively reasonable, they are additional costs for consumers on already stretched telecommunications budgets.

Providers of connected-home services that charge monthly service fees may struggle to compete with those that do not, such as home energy management providers like Hive in the U.K. and Nest (now owned by Google). Additionally, electronics stores are creating in-store connected-home areas where consumers can get expert advice on creating their own connected-home platforms. In order to offer similar experiences to their customers, service providers would need to invest in both retail space and staff education.

“The connected-home market is showing the usual signs of nascency: low penetration, high interest mainly among technology enthusiasts, and high prices,” said Jessica Ekholm, research director at Gartner. “For mass-market adoption, prices need to come down, but lowering prices won’t suffice on its own. The current lack of interest from most sectors of the public also indicates that people do not see the immediate advantage of connected home services. Embracing a strategy that offers in-store expert advice could therefore be the way forward.”

More detailed analysis is available in the Gartner Special Report “Predicts 2015: Connected-Home Experiences Will Center on Video and Apps.” The report is available on Gartner’s website athttp://www.gartner.com/document/2913417.

Gartner Says in 2015, 50 Percent of People Considering Buying a Smart Wristband Will Choose a Smartwatch Instead

Gartner Says in 2015, 50 Percent of People Considering Buying a Smart Wristband Will Choose a Smartwatch Instead.

Wearable Electronic Fitness Devices Market Still Poised for Strong Growth

Wearable electronic devices for fitness shipments are forecast to reach 68.1 million units in 2015, down from 70 million units in 2014, according to Gartner, Inc. This temporary dip in sales will be driven by an overlap in functionality between smart wristbands, other wearable fitness monitors and smartwatches. However, the market for smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will rebound in 2016 because of versatile designs and models with lower-cost displays.

“Fitness wearables are used for tracking health, which goes hand-in-hand with fitness and wellness,” said Angela McIntyre, research director at Gartner. “Consumers will be able to integrate the data from most wearables into a single account where their data can be analyzed using cognizant computing to provide useful insights to wearers. Funding initiatives from Qualcomm, Apple (HealthKit), Google (Google Fit), Samsung (S.A.M.I.), Microsoft, Nike and Intel, among others, will build on early innovation in wearable fitness and health monitoring and create the infrastructure for merging data relevant to health and fitness.”

The five main fitness wearable form factors are smart wristbands, sports watches, other fitness monitors, heart rate monitor chest straps and smart garments.

Sports watches and chest straps are well established, compared with smart wristbands first popularized by the Jawbone Up, which launched in 2011. However, Gartner believes that the smart garment product category has the greatest potential for growth going forward because the category is emerging from the testing phase and smart shirts are available to athletes and coaches of professional teams. Smart garment shipments are forecast to grow from 0.1 million units in 2014 to 26 million units in 2016 (see Table 1).

Table 1 — Worldwide Wearable Electronic Fitness Devices Shipments Forecast, 2013-2016

(Millions of Units)

 Device Category

2013

2014

2015

2016

Smart Wristband

30

20

17

19

Sports Watch

14

18

21

24

Other Fitness Monitor

18

20

12

15

Chest Strap

11

12.1

8

7.3

Smart Garment

0.01

0.1

10.1

26

Total Market

73.01

70.2

68.1

91.3

Source: Gartner (October 2014)

For the present, however, smart wristbands and other fitness monitors are the most popular form factors.

“Smartwatches having retail prices of $149 or more will typically have the capability to track activity and have accelerometers and gyroscopes similar to their smart wristband cousins,” said Ms. McIntyre. “The smartwatches differ from smart wristbands in that smartwatches need to display the time and have a user interface oriented around communication. However, some smart wristbands have the ability to display and send text messages. The overlap in functionality between smart wristbands and smartwatches is expected to continue.”

Gartner further predicts that in 2018 through 2020, 25 percent of smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will be sold through nonretail channels. During this time scale, smart wristbands and other fitness monitors will be offered increasingly by gyms, wellness providers, insurance providers, weight loss clinics or employers, sometimes at subsidized prices or for free.

These companies will serve as a growing distribution channel for device manufacturers. The new channels also result from fitness monitors being integrated into employee badges or identification bracelets for access control. Business-to-consumer (B2C) companies will have rewards or gamification linked to the use of wearables as a way of keeping customers engaged with their brands.

More detailed analysis is available in the report “Forecast: Wearable Electronic Devices for Fitness, Worldwide, 2014.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2882518.

Where Are We On The Social Distribution Hype Cycle? – IrishCentral.com

Where Are We On The Social Distribution Hype Cycle? – IrishCentral.com.

 

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We’ve come a long way from the old days of news sharing.

NewsWhip tracks the spread of all content on social media. This is a frothy space, with dramatic increases in the volume of content being shared, and the corresponding traffic coming to publishers and brands from that content. Here, we try and explore where we are in the “social distribution hype cycle.”

You may have heard of the Hype Cycle, a view developed by Gartner to give context to the stages in adoption of a new technology or process by business.

Image: Wikipedia

Let’s run through it quickly. First, a new technology is developed – thetechnology trigger. The hot new thing is heralded by early adopters – leading to inflated expectations, irrational exuberance, over-investment, and a peak in the “hype cycle” – the great big mountain on the left.

But – the technology fails to match the expectations, leading to a steep trough of disillusionment. It didn’t deliver, we overpaid. Darn snake oil. Early adopters are burned.

But meanwhile, quietly, processes are improving, underlying technology is being iterated by wily startups, and tangible benefits start to accrue. We recognize and better value the true benefits of the technology and finally climb the slope of enlightenment.

Finally, the more conservative early majority come aboard, and we achieve a plateau of productivity – and for stakeholders in the new technology – perhaps some profit.

Here’s a much more detailed version that breaks out events, financing and other possible events along the way:

So where on the hype cycle is social distribution today?

By social distribution, I mean the “many to many” distribution of content (videos, articles, news, other media) by people to people, usually via social networks, email and other peer-to-peer technologies. This is contrasted with the old pipelines of the last media era –  TV towers, newspaper agents, and radios, that delivered content directly from mass media providers.

Social distribution is not a single technology – it’s a change enabled by a bunch of technologies. But it’s fast displacing other distribution methods. More people arrive at many news sites today via Facebook than via the site’s front page. In the US, we estimate more people are probably catching nuggets of news on Facebook than from the major TV networks each day. For many big online publishers, 30% to 50% of traffic is now coming from social networks. Meanwhile “dark social” traffic – from emails and instant messages – makes up another huge chunk of visitors.

Some believe that social distribution is the natural way for information to be shared – and mass media was only a temporary phenomenon that lasted from the first mass produced papers (1700s) ’til right about now. At NewsWhip, we partially agree. We think social distribution will overtake many other forms of media discovery and distribution over the next few years.

But that’s a hypey statement right? The idea that the pipelines of content distribution are being torn up and replaced by a sharing and subscribing on social networks? I agree – but I do believe that it’s happening, and we have the data to back it up. So let’s see where we are in this hype cycle.

Here’s Theory One. We begin in 2009 as share buttons are introduced and quickly become ubiquitous. Publishers notice that they are getting a bump in traffic, especially to some stories. Social networks give new prominence to new sites and personalities.

In the graph below, that puts us on the steep climb up the start of the hype cycle.

As hype builds, we see new technology and service providers appear – like NewsWhip (content monitoring and discovery), Storyful (UGC verification and licensing), or Social Flow (distribution timing optimisation). Welcome to 2011 – 2012.

In the same period, new socially optimized publishers gain prominence – BuzzFeed, and new tearaway right and left wing outlets (The Blaze, Think Progress). Then we see the second wave, of curators turning up shareable nuggets (Upworthy, ViralNova). They get big in 2013.

CMO Spend 2014: Running on Digital (Gartner Infographic)

CMO Spend 2014: Running on Digital (Gartner Infographic)

Selon une enquête de Gartner, menée entre juillet et septembre 2013 auprès de marketeurs américains de grandes entreprises, les budgets de marketing digital devraient augmenter de +10% en 2014.
En 2013, le marketing numérique représentait 28,5% du budget marketing total, contre 25,5% en 2012. La plus grosse part du budget était consacrée à la publicité digitale (12,2%), contre 10,3% pour le site internet corporate, 9,6% pour le commerce numérique et 9,5% pour le marketing mobile et social. En moyenne, les entreprises ont dépensé 10,7% de leur chiffre d’affaires 2013 sur l’ensemble de leurs activités marketing, et 3,1% en marketing digital, contre 2,5% du CA en 2012, soit +20%. En 2014, les dépenses en marketing digital devraient représenter 3,3% du CA.

Gartner Says Mobile Advertising Spending Will Reach $18 Billion in 2014

Gartner Says Mobile Advertising Spending Will Reach $18 Billion in 2014.

Growth from 2015 to 2017 Will Be Fueled by Improved Market Conditions

Global mobile advertising spending is forecast to reach $18.0 billion [≈ net worth of Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York City] in 2014, up from the estimated $13.1 billion [≈ net worth of Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook, 2011] in 2013, according to Gartner, Inc. The market is expected to grow to $41.9 billion [≈ AT&T T-Mobile purchase] by 2017. Gartner said that display formats will make up most of the revenue, but video will show the highest growth.

“Over the next few years, growth in mobile advertising spending will slow due to ad space inventory supply growing faster than demand, as the number of mobile websites and applications increases faster than brands request ad space on mobile device screens,” said Stephanie Baghdassarian, research director at Gartner. “However, from 2015 to 2017, growth will be fueled by improved market conditions, such as provider consolidation, measurement standardization and new targeting technologies, along with a sustained interest in the mobile medium from advertisers.”

With regard to the different ad formats used in the mobile sector, mobile display ad formats are collectively the single biggest category of ads, and will remain so throughout the forecast period, although this category will shift to mobile Web display after several years of higher growth in in-app display. Uptake of the audio/video format by the end of the forecast period is higher because the tablet form factor will drive video, and the tablet market continues to grow.

In addition, search/map ad types will benefit from increased use of location data gathered from users, either through them opting into being located automatically through their devices or because they proactively check in the places they visit using apps such as Foursquare and Pinterest. As a result, local advertisers will be more interested in the mobile channel as a means of pushing ads. The split between in-app and Web display is taking longer to shift in favor of the latter, as the use of HTML5 tools in mobile website development is taking longer to impact the market.

All regions of the world will experience strong growth in mobile advertising spend, although North America is where most of growth will come from, due to the sheer scale of its advertising budgets and their shift to mobile.

“North America is the region with the strongest general advertising focus and investment. It is also the region where online advertising is most mature,” said Mike McGuire, research vice president at Gartner. “Overall advertising budgets are the highest, so when a portion shifts to mobile, in a multiplatform approach, it immediately impacts the market’s scale.”

Western Europe’s market for mobile advertising will remain similar to North America’s, albeit at a slightly lower scale, for the duration of the forecast period. “The mobile channel will become more and more integrated into 360-degree advertising campaigns, eating up budget historically allocated to print and radio advertising,” said Ms. Baghdassarian.

Asia/Pacific and Japan is the most mature region for mobile advertising, and therefore growth will slow between2012 and 2017, averaging 30 percent a year. Historically, the unusually high adoption of handsets for digital content consumption in Japan and South Korea has given the Asia/Pacific region an early lead in mobile advertising. Looking forward, Gartner expects the high-growth economies of China and India to contribute increasingly to mobile advertising growth as their expanding middle classes present attractive markets for global and local brands.

In the emerging markets of Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa, mobile advertising growth will largely track the technology adoption and stabilization of emerging economies, but will mostly be driven by large markets such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico. From 2015, growth rates in this region will exceed the worldwide average.

More detailed analysis is available in the report “Forecast: Mobile Advertising, Worldwide, 2010-2017.” The report is available on Gartner’s website at http://www.gartner.com/document/2642816.

En 2017, plus de 100 applications et services utiliseront vos données perso quotidiennement

En 2017, plus de 100 applications et services utiliseront vos données perso quotidiennement.


applications appstore

Les applications mobiles sont en train de devenir la passerelle entre l’utilisateur et son environnement mais elles auront besoin de toujours plus de données personnelles pour remplir leur fonction, prédit le cabinet d’études Gartner.

Les applications mobiles ont déjà profondément transformé l’industrie en formant des écosystèmes dans lesquels les utilisateurs peuvent personnaliser leurs terminaux selon leurs besoins propres. Avec plus d’un million d’applications sur les plus gros portails, il y a une application pour presque tout et la prochaine étape passera par une affinement des réponses à ces besoins grâce à l’influx des données personnelles.

Logo Gartner Le cabinet d’études Gartner estime que d’ici 2017, plus de 268 milliards d’applications auront été téléchargées, générant des revenus de 77 milliards de dollars. Mais parce que les fonctionnalités s’enrichissent à partir des informations fournies par les utilisateurs eux-mêmes, ces derniers doivent s’attendre à ce que les flux de leurs données personnelles alimentent à cette date plus de 100 applications et services quotidiennement.

La large gratuité des applications (plus de 90% des catalogues) a aussi pour contrepartie que de grandes quantités de données personnelles sont dès à présent récupérées, analysées, traitées, disséquées…

Les applications mobiles sont déjà un outil puissant pour les entreprises cherchant à mieux identifier leurs consommateurs pour répondre de façon pertinente à leurs besoins et cette tendance va largement s’accroître avec les gadgets du wearable computing, qui sont avant tout de nouveaux moyens de collecter des données personnelles jusque-là inaccessibles.

Influentes actuellement sur les smartphones et les tablettes, les applications auront bientôt desincidences profondes sur d’autres aspects, de la domotique au véhicule en passant par les gadgets connectés. Ces derniers auront notamment besoin des applications pour assurer une récupération et un traitement des données que leurs caractéristiques ne permettront pas de gérer directement, étant essentiellement des capteurs extrayant des données brutes.

Ce qui signifie aussi que les liens entre gadgets et terminaux mobiles sont là pour durer, avec les applications pour faire le lien. Les analystes de Gartner y voient l’émergence d’une nouvelle forme d’informatique et d’organisation alimentées par les données personnelles des utilisateurs capables de “deviner” leurs intentions et d’anticiper les interactions à venir.

Cela peut passer par la fourniture d’information pertinente avant qu’elle soit demandée ou par la mise en place automatique d’outils en amont de l’action de l’utilisateur (ouverture d’applications, réglages spécifiques, etc).

LG Lifeband Touch Pour fonctionner, ce “cognizant computing” entrevu par Gartner aura besoin de beaucoup d’informations sur l’utilisateur et ses habitudes. Les analystes anticipent qu’il fonctionnera particulièrement bien dans des environnements à faible variabilité comme dans les foyers où les actions peuvent être plus ou moins routinières et donc plus facilement anticipables, sans avoir non plus besoin de mettre en lien beaucoup de bases de données.

Mais ce n’est évidemment qu’un point de départ avant des scénarios plus complexes. Et les grands groupes comme Google, Facebook, Amazon ou Apple sont déjà à la recherche des moyens de collecter et de regrouper au mieux ces énormes masses d’informations du quotidien, dont les applications peuvent ensuite tirer parti.

Cette évolution laisse entrevoir des possibilités à peine imaginables actuellement mais on ne pourra que noter que l’être humain est à peine évoqué dans cette vision, en dehors d’un rôle de producteur des données en question, et qu’il aura dans le même temps de moins en moins de possibilités d’échapper à cette prise de contrôle de ce qui fait justement son essence : ses propres choix.

18 milliards de dollars : le marché de la pub mobile devrait exploser en 2014

18 milliards de dollars : le marché de la pub mobile devrait exploser en 2014.

Marina Torre  |  21/01/2014, 9:30  –  678  mots
La publicité sur mobile devrait générer cette année près de 5 milliards de dollarsde plus que l’an dernier selon le cabinet spécialisé Gartner. Toutes les régions du monde devraient en profiter… jusqu’à l’explosion de la bulle?

La ruée vers le mobile se poursuit. Le marché mondial de la publicité sur les terminaux mobiles devrait atteindre 18 milliards de dollars (13,2 milliards d’euros) contre 13,1 milliards l’an dernier (soit un peu mois de 10 milliards d’euros), selon la dernière étude du cabinet Gartner publiée ce mardi.

Cette étude prend en compte les dépenses pour les vidéos, bandeaux publicitaires et autres qui sont affichés sur smarpthones et tablettes. Elle est en ligne avec d’autres enquêtes statistiques. Ainsi, au mois de juin, un autre cabinet spécialisé, ZenithOptimedia, une filiale de Publicis, avait estimé à 14 milliards les investissements des annonceurs sur les supports mobiles en 2013.

Le marché aura triplé en 2017

Les prévisions de Gartner pour les trois prochaines années sont encore plus optimistes. Au cours des trois prochaines années, le marché aura triplé par rapport à 2013, atteignant les 41,9 milliards de dollars (environ 30 milliards d’euros), selon le cabinet d’études.

De 2015 à 2017, les chercheurs de Gartner prévoient que la “consolidation du secteur“, l’harmonisation des mesures d’audience ou encore les nouvelles technologies de ciblage des consommateurs soutiendront cette forte croissance.

Recul des parts de marché en Asie

Au niveau géographique, “toutes les régions du monde” seront concernées, anticipe Gartner, mais les Etats-Unis, plus que tout autre pays, devraient en profiter. C’est là, en effet, que les budgets publicitaires sont les plus élevés au monde. Un autre cabinet d’études spécialisé, eMarketer, prévoit une croissance de 56% des dépenses publicitaires sur mobile aux Etats-Unis en 2014, soit près de 15 milliards de dollars.

Stéphanie Baghdassarian, analyste spécialiste des applications et de la publicité mobile chez Gartner explique à La Tribune:

“La part de marché pour l’Amérique du Nord est stable à environ 38% et devrait le rester dans les années à venir. Le changement viendra surtout d’Asie Pacifique, région qui était très représentée par le Japon et la Corée du Sud et représentait 60% des parts de marché il y a trois ans. En 2017, cela se tasse un peu à environ 34%, surtout au profit de l’Amérique du Nord et de l’Europe de l’Ouest.”

Partout dans les économies matures, cette poussée de la publicité sur mobile se réalisera au détriment des autres supports, en “grignotant des parts de budgets historiquement allouées au papier ou la radio”.

>> Pourquoi la pub sur mobile explose… sauf en France

Géolocalisation et publicités locales

Dans le détail, les formats vidéos devraient bénéficier de la hausse des ventes des tablettes. Et d’autres avancées techniques notamment la géolocalisation, permettront de laisser libre cours à l’imagination des publicitaires et seront susceptibles d’attirer les petits annonceurs locaux.

La part des annonces “géolocalisées” devrait atteindre 40%. Celle-ci comprend à la fois celles qui sont “poussées” vers l’utilisateur dont le mobile est par exemple connecté au Bluetooth, mais aussi celles des annonceurs qui payent pour être mis en avant sur une carte interactive.

Facebook et Twitter parient sur le mobile

Des géants du web américain, comme Facebook par exemple, ont largement parié sur ce modèle. Leurs bons résultats sur le mobile suscitent d’ailleurs régulièrement l’enthousiasme des investisseurs.

>> La pub sur mobile fait flamber Facebook en Bourse

Le réseau social Twitter, de son côté, a réalisé sa plus grosse acquisition dans le secteur de la publicité sur mobile en achetant MoPub, une plateforme de publicité en temps réel sur mobile, pour un montant évalué de 300 à 400 millions de dollars. 

Une bulle

Toutefois, Stéphanie Baghdassarian constate un effet de nature à ralentir la croissance dans le secteur à partir de 2016/2017. Elle fait observer que :

“la croissance de l’espace disponible (nombre d’utilisateurs, nombre d’application etc) est plus rapide que la croissance de la demande de la part des annonceurs”.

La publicité sur les applications mobiles étant souvent le fait de développeurs qui font de la publicité pour leur propre application sur d’autres applications, cela créé “une bulle qui ne génère pas de vrai revenu”.

Les ventes de tablettes ont crû de +50,2% en 2013 (Gartner)

Le 08/01/2014

nl449-logo-gartner

L’institut Gartner a revu à la baisse son estimation des ventes de PC, tablettes et mobiles en 2013 : 2,300 milliards d’unités dans le monde versus sa prévision de2,316 milliards publiée en octobre (voir archive). Par rapport à 2012, cela représente une croissance de +3,8%, au lieu du +4,5% prévu.
Gartner reste cependant optimiste pour l’année 2014 avec une prévision de croissance de +7,6%, suivie d’une croissance de +5,9% en 2013.
Les ventes de tablettes ont crû de +50,2% en 2013 (180 millions d’unités) et représenté 71% de la croissance totale des achats de devices. En 2014, leur croissance est prévue à +46,7%, représentant 48% de la croissance totale, et, en 2015, les ventes de tablettes dépasseront les ventes de PC et le seuil des300 millions d’unités.
Les ventes de téléphones mobiles ont augmenté de +3,3% en 2013 et sont prévues à +4,9% en 2014, avec près d’1,9 milliard d’unités. Celles des devices ultramobiles (Hybrid et Clamshell) ont augmenté de +84% en 2013 et devraient plus que doubler en 2014 (+131%), avec près de 40 millions d’unités. Les ventes de PC continuent de diminuer : -7,2% prévu en 2014 après une année 2013 à -12,3%.

NL849-image-gartner

Selon Gartner, Android sera le premier système d’exploitation des devices vendus en 2014 avec 44,6% du marché (vs 38,2% en 2013), devant Windows (14,5%) et iOS/Mac OS (13,9%).

The Digital Industrial Economy by Peter Sondergaard (Gartner)

The Digital Industrial Economy.

Peter Sondergaard 
Research Director 
 25 years at Gartner
 29 years IT Industr

The digital world is upon us. Every budget is an IT budget. Every company is a technology company. Every business leader is becoming a digital leader. Every person is becoming a technology company.

Welcome to the Digital Industrial Economy.

If you’ve already attended Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in South Africa, Japan, US, India or Australia this week, you’ll recognize these opening remarks from our analyst keynote. And judging by the literally hundreds of CIOs I have spoke to over the past few weeks at these events, we’ve captured the attention, mood, hopes and, quite frankly, many of the fears of our attendees.

One of the questions we address directly in our opening keynote is about “digital” itself. Basically, what is it?

First, it’s not digitization. That is about zeros and ones. Digitalization is about something much, much more. Something altogether bigger and fundamentally more important. It’s about the transformation of your business.

Digital business applies unprecedented combinations of new technologies to generate revenue and value. It starts with digital assets and capabilities.

For business, it means digital products, services and customer experiences conducted through digital channels from the front office all the way through the value chain. For governments, it means digital services to constituents, more transparency and higher mission effectiveness

Digitalization exposes every part of your business and its operations to the Nexus of Forces (where cloud, mobile, information and social technologies meet) and the Internet of Everything. It is how you reach customers and constituents, how you run your physical plant and how you generate revenues or deliver services.

No matter what business or service you deliver today, digitalization is changing it. The changes we see in media and digital marketing are just the beginning. If you work in agriculture, mining or manufacturing, digitalization means a new opportunity for you as well. If you deliver public services, digitalization allows you to better engage with your constituents where they are in the moment.

And the way your business runs, your internal operations, are changing too as digitalization is becoming pervasive inside organizations, shortening time cycles. For example, to a chief marketing officer, what happens with a customer in the moment can make all the difference. S/he can commission a successful mobile app-driven campaign that sees payback in a matter of weeks. That’s the time it takes a typical IT organization to just gather requirements.

We are seeing the cost for the basic hardware building blocks of the Digital Industrial Economy, such as sensors, radios, and microprocessors are plummeting. In 2009, 0.9B sensors and 1.6B personal devices — so roughly 2.5B “things” — were connected. But by 2020, that will grow to become 30B “things”. In fact, by 2020 all products costing more than $100 should have sensorsembedded, even if you don’t know what to use them for.

Digitalization will change the way we all think about technology and, after talking to CIOs at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo across four continents in the last few weeks, it will fundamentally change the way we need to lead our organizations to be successful in this new digital world.

Peter Sondergaard is a senior vice president in Gartner, where he is the global head of Gartner Research. Mr. Sondergaard is responsible for people management and the direction of the global research organization, which includes Semiconductors, IT Infrastructure and Operations, Communications, Software and Services Management, Business of IT, Research Operations Management, and IT provider and end-user organizational roles.