IDC Predicts Turmoil For CMOs In 2015: 25% of CMOs will be replaced every year through 2018.

IDC Predicts Turmoil For CMOs In 2015.

 

Late last year IDC’s CMO Advisory Service released its 10 predictions for the next three years. Kathleen Schaub, vice president of the practice, summarized the findings this way, “Our theme for the coming year is turmoil versus transformation. There’s a lot of activity going on and some people are actually moving forward, but there’s also a lot of spinning and a lot of trial and error.

“We see that marking transformation is at a point where marketing people get that they’ve got to take [new] roads and these roads need new and different kinds of content. They need to start engaging with buyers earlier. They need to use data to personalize. They need technology in order to be able to accomplish that. These fundamental facts about modern marketing everyone get now. [Marketers] pretty much all tried to do this and now realize how difficult it is, how interrelated it is and how much has to change in such a fundamental way in order to be able to make this happen. There are a few places here and there that are starting to put things together, but the scary stories are coming back as often as the winning stories.”

IDC CMO FutureScape 2015 (2)

Here are IDC’s 10 predictions with my editorial comments:

  1. 25% of CMOs will be replaced every year through 2018. The big issue to me that contributes to this turnover is the redefinition of the CMO role. No longer can a CMO simply be the “brand champion” who primarily uses advertising to accomplish her goals. In the era of modern marketing, customer experiences will trump advertising campaigns. CMOs must become champions of great experiences at every step of their customers’ decision journeys. Those who rise to this new standard with thrive. Those who don’t will be in jeopardy of losing their jobs.
  2. By 2017, 25% of marketing organizations will solve critical skill gaps by deploying centers of excellence. Very similar to how CMOs dealt with the explosion of digital and social media over the past decade, scarce talent will be a centralized resource used to shore up business units’ gaps. The emergence of the chief marketing technology officer (CMTO) is one response to centralizing the competencies needed to build the data and technology infrastructure required for modern marketing.
  3. By 2017 15% of B2B companies will use more than 20 data sources to personalize a high-value customer journey. Having personalized experiences at each touch point is the holy grail of modern marketing. Creating a unified view of an individual customer requires connecting that customer’s data from every interaction system, most of which are siloed today. Having a data integration plan should be at the top of every CMO’s 2015 agenda.
  4. By 2015 one in three marketing organizations will deliver compelling content at all stages of the buyer journey. Congratulations to the third who will get there this year. But for the rest of you, what’s holding you back?
  5. In 2015 only one in five companies will retool to reach line of business buyers and outperform those selling exclusively to IT. Ouch! With more and more applications being delivered via a SaaS model, business users can procure the tools they need directly for suppliers more easily. Look at what has happened in marketing with marketing cloud applications, and in sales with products like SalesForce.com. The 80% of companies slow to adjust to this new reality will be in trouble soon.
  6. By 2017 50% of larger high-tech marketing organizations will create in-house creative services. Retailers did this long ago to produce Sunday circulars more cost-effectively. Manufacturers are trying to create efficient content production teams now. This model can work for production content, but most firms will realize hiring and keeping top creative talent will be a challenge. I expect to see a hybrid model that uses both internal production teams and outside agencies to develop the most effective portfolio of content.
  7. By 2018 20% of B2B sales teams will go “virtual,” resulting in improved pipeline conversion rates. Let’s face it, highly paid sales people don’t want to mess with prospects who aren’t ready to buy. But as customers discover and explore solutions online, they may have questions that they can’t answer independently. I’m seeing more marketing organizations create lead nurturing call centers to fill this gap. When done well, customers have better experiences and sales get a higher percentage of highly qualified buyers.
  8. By 2017 70% of B2B mobile customer apps will fail to achieve ROI because they lack customer value-add. I believe this failure happens for two reasons. First, companies believe they must have a mobile app so they rush something to market that helps them push their agendas instead of taking time to understand what the customer actually needs. Second, most companies don’t need an app. What customers really want is a mobile-optimized website (which is already connected to your back-end systems) to get the information they need whenever and wherever they want it. In 2015 I’d suggest you resist being “app happy” and instead become truly “mobile friendly.”
  9. By 2017 25% of CMOs and CIOs will have a shared roadmap for marketing technology. Why isn’t this 100% in 2015? It should be! No excuses for waiting until 2017.
  10. By 2018 20% of B2B CMOs will drive budget increases by attributing campaign results to revenue performance. Yikes! Only 20%. Sure building measurement systems isn’t easy, but the tools do exist to help you learn what works and doesn’t. For the CMOs who don’t make progress on multi-channel program attribution in 2015, re-read prediction #1. Your job will be in jeopardy.

Most Consumers Don’t Tote Wearables to the Gym—Yet – eMarketer

Most Consumers Don’t Tote Wearables to the Gym—Yet – eMarketer.

Wearables are a hot topic at the moment. There’s been talk recently about the future of notifications on such devices, fashion brands such as Tory Burch and Diane von Furstenberg (DVF) have partnered with tech companies to make wearables more stylish, and GE is testing Google Glass to see how the technology could help boost efficiency in its car factories. In April 2014, International Data Corporation predicted that wearable device shipments worldwide would rise more than 488.9% between 2014 and 2018, from 19.0 million to 111.9 million.

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Consumers have reported using mobile health and fitness apps to get in shape, and many industry sources believe that wearables are next. March 2014 polling by Makovsky Health and Kelton Research found high interest in wearable health and fitness devices: 81% of US internet users said they would use one. Tracking fitness was the top reason, cited by 48%. Keeping up with personal health issues landed in second place, while tracking diet and nutrition ranked third.

However, wearable health and fitness devices have a long way to go before they’re standard gym gear. In a June 2014 Opera Mediaworks study, just 2.5% of US smartphone users said they used wearable fitness and activity trackers while exercising. However, usage was relatively low for all devices except smartphones (57.7% of respondents). While the future may be bright for wearables, do-all smartphones are still No. 1 when exercisers need to pump it up.

- See more at: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Most-Consumers-Dont-Tote-Wearables-GymYet/1011124/2#sthash.k1epKCOC.dpuf

Worldwide Smartphone Market Expected to Grow 55% in 2011 and Approach Shipments of One Billion in 2015, According to IDC

IDC – Press Release – prUS22871611.

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. June 9, 2011 – The worldwide smartphone market is forecast to grow 55% year over year in 2011 as a growing number of users turn in their feature phones for more advanced devices. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, vendors will ship a total of 472 million smartphones in 2011 compared to roughly 305 million units shipped in 2010. That figure will nearly double to 982 million by the end of 2015.

The fast-growing smartphone market, which will grow more than four times the rate of the overall mobile phone market this year, is being fuelled by falling average selling prices, increased phone functionality, and lower-cost data plans among other factors, which make the devices more accessible to a wider range of users.

“The smartphone floodgates are open wide,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their ‘talk-and-text’ devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years.”

Smartphone Operating Systems

“Underpinning smartphone growth is the rapidly shifting operating system landscape,” added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team. “End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems. Taking this as their cue, operating system developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”

IDC expects Android, which passed Symbian as the leading operating system worldwide in Q4 2010, to grow to more than 40% of the market in the second half of 2011. A significant and growing list of vendors who have made Android the cornerstone of their respective smartphone strategies is propelling the growth of Android.

Symbian will steadily lose share throughout the forecast period as its biggest supporter Nokia transitions its smartphone strategy to Windows Phone. This will present a huge opportunity for competing operating systems to gain footing. Still, Nokia’s commitment to support Symbian devices until 2016 will keep the installed base of Symbian-powered smartphone users on par with its competitors.

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will benefit from Nokia’s support, scope, and breadth within markets where Nokia has historically had a strong presence. Until Nokia begins introducing Windows Phone-powered smartphones in large volumes in 2012, Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile will only capture a small share of the market as the release of Mango-powered smartphones are not expected to reach the market until late 2011. Nevertheless, assuming that Nokia’s transition to Windows Phone goes smoothly, the OS is expected to defend a number 2 rank and more than 20% share in 2015.

iOS was the third ranked OS going into 2011 and will remain a force in the mobile phone market throughout the forecast. After an initial explosive growth period, iOS is expected to grow at a more modest pace throughout the latter half of the forecast as the smartphone market matures and diversifies. Although a small market share decline is expected, IDC expects significant overall shipment volume growth through the end of 2015.

BlackBerry OS is expected to maintain its position as a Top 4 smartphone operating system over the forecast period. Like iOS, the BlackBerry OS will experience market share decline even as shipment volumes grow throughout our forecast.

Worldwide Smartphone Operating System 2011 and 2015 Market Share and 2011-2015 Compound Annual Growth Rate

Operating System

2011 Market Share

2015 Market Share

2011-2015 Unit CAGR

Android

38.9%

43.8%

23.7%

BlackBerry OS

14.2%

13.4%

18.3%

Symbian

20.6%

0.1%

-68.8%

iOS

18.2%

16.9%

17.9%

Windows Phone 7/Windows Mobile

3.8%

20.3%

82.3%

Others

4.3%

5.5%

27.6%

Total

100.0%

100.0%

20.1%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, June 9, 2011.

Note: Market share based on unit shipments.

What the Smartphone Market Will Look Like in 2015 [STUDY]

What the Smartphone Market Will Look Like in 2015 [STUDY].

Market research firm IDC predicts that the smartphone market will grow 49.2% in 2011, due to an increasing number of users who will replace feature phones with smartphones.

The report goes hand in hand with a recent study, also by IDC, which predicts that the number of mobile app downloads will grow from 10.9 billion in 2010 to 76.9 billion in 2014.

While the growth of the smartphone market is fairly easy to predict, IDC also makes predictions about the market share of smartphone platforms in 2015, and we’re far more skeptical about those. Android, IDC predicts, will have 45.4% market share by that time, while BlackBerry will be at 13.7% and iOS at 15.3%.

Symbian, recently dropped from Nokia’s long-term plans, is predicted to drop to 0.2%, and Windows Phone 7 is predicted to grab an impressive 20.9% market share, which would propel it into second place by a large margin. It’s definitely possible, but even though Microsoft’s partnership with Nokia is a strong foundation for success, we can easily see bumps in the road (such as Nokia’s integration of WP7 going slower than planned) that could impede such stellar growth for WP7.

What do you think about these predictions by IDC? Can Windows Phone 7 reach second place on the market by 2015? Please, share your opinions in the comments.

Apple way ahead of tablet competition, expected to hold 80% share

via Apple way ahead of tablet competition, expected to hold 80% share.

Apple way ahead of tablet competition, expected to hold 80% share

The latest analysis from market research firm IDC shows that Apple snagged nearly three-quarters of the tablet market during the fourth quarter of 2010. Though Samsung’s 7″ Galaxy Tab offered some competition, Apple captured 83 percent of the market for 2010, and most analysts believe that with the iPad 2, Apple can maintain about 80 percent share for 2011 as well.

IDC’s research also showed that Amazon’s Kindle continues to be a market leader, grabbing almost half of the eReader market in fourth quarter 2010. With Amazon representing the closest competition to Apple with respect to available content and e-commerce infrastructure, Forrester researcher Sarah Rotman believes Amazon is best poised to give Apple the most credible threat to its dominating market position, assuming it could assemble a more general purpose tablet with a color screen.

The overall tablet market grew 124 percent consecutively from third quarter to fourth quarter 2010, outpacing IDC’s previous projections. IDC recorded a total of 10.1 million “media tablets” sold in the fourth quarter, up from 4.8 million the previous quarter. Apple sold a smidge more than 7.3 million iPads, good for 73 percent market share. Samsung managed to capture 17 percent share according to IDC, suggesting Samsung moved about 1.7 million units. The remaining 10 percent of the market belonged to “a number of smaller regional players.”

“Strong holiday sales of media tablets were in line with IDC projections and strong consumer interest in the category while device vendors scrambled to offer products competitive with Apple’s iPad and now iPad 2,” Loren Loverde, IDC vice president of Consumer Device Trackers, said in a statement. “Media tablets are on pace to reach shipments of roughly 50 million units in 2011.”

The recently launched Motorola Xoom tablet was believed to be capable of taking on the iPad with its beefy specs and tablet-optimized Android 3.0 OS. However, the Xoom shipped to market missing a few promised hardware and software features, some rough edges, and pricing that is largely considered to be a major impediment to its wide adoption.

Forrester’s Rotman agrees with the IDC assessment that the Xoom, as well as upcoming competitors to the iPad like Samsung’s Galaxy Tab 10.1, RIM’s PlayBook, and HP’s Touchpad, are all competent and well-made devices. However, as Rotman wrote in her blog, all of these tablets have “fatally flawed product strategies.”

These competitors are either priced higher than comparable iPads, come with carrier contracts, or both. Forrester’s research indicates that consumers aren’t interested in accepting long-term contracts for tablets in the same way they have been accustomed to doing with mobile phones.

Furthermore, none of the competitors have the combination of content, channel, and cachet that Apple does. No single vendor has music, video, and apps in as great a number as the iTunes Store. Apple also has a phalanx of retail stores to highlight its products in addition to big-box retailers like Walmart, Target, and carrier partners. And the iPad 2—which launches Friday—is thinner, lighter, and arguably more stylish than the original.

“In a post-PC world, consumers have a more intimate relationship with their devices,” Rotman wrote on her blog. “They use them on the couch and in bed and not just at their desk. They show their devices to other people. Fostering that desire is a smart way to differentiate your piece of glass from other pieces of glass that perform essentially the same functions.”

IDC is predicting that Apple will hold on to 70 to 80 percent of the tablet market in 2011. Forrester is betting on closer to 80 percent, at least in the US. “We expect 24.1 million tablets to sell in the US this year, at least 20 million of which will be iPads,” Rotman said. Those figures are further supported by market research firm ChangeWave’s latest consumer survey on tablet demand. Consumers planning to by a tablet overwhelmingly consider an iPad their top choice—82 percent plan to get an iPad in the next 90 days—while the Xoom, PlayBook, and Galaxy Tab only garnered a few percentage points each.

Rotman believes that Amazon, the current market leader in eReader sales, represents the company that has the best chance to offer the combination of hardware, software, sales channel capacity, and media offerings toeffectively compete with Apple at this stage in the game.

“Amazon could create a compelling Android- or Linux-based tablet offering easy access to Amazon’s storefront—including its forthcoming Android app store—and unique Amazon features like one-click purchasing, Amazon Prime service, and its recommendations engine,” Rotman wrote. Microsoft and Sony are also seen as having similar potential, but neither have yet demonstrated the capability to leverage that potential as successfully as Apple in the mobile market.

Whether Amazon decides to jump into the tablet market or not, though, the company is still doing well with its Kindle e-readers. The revised Kindle 3 with its $149 price boosted Amazon’s fourth quarter e-reader market share to 48 percent, up from 40 percent in the third quarter. The overall market grew considerably at the same time—up to 6 million units versus just 2.7 million in the third quarter, for a total of 12.8 million e-readers sold in 2010.

Pandigital just edged Barnes & Noble for second place for the fourth quarter, slotting the Nook and Nook Color vendor in at number three. China’s Hanvon took fourth place, while Sony’s 81 percent increase in sales was enough for fifth place.

Number of Mobile Devices Accessing the Internet Expected to Surpass One Billion by 2013 (Source: IDC)

09 Dec 2009

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., December 9, 2009 – There were more than 450 million mobile Internet users worldwide in 2009, a number that is expected to more than double by the end of 2013. Driven by the popularity and affordability of mobile phones, smartphones, and other wireless devices, IDC’s Worldwide Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast (an IDC Database service) expects the number of mobile devices accessing the Internet to surpass the one billion mark over the next four years.

“The number of mobile devices with Internet access has simply exploded over the last several years,” said John Gantz, chief research officer at IDC. “With a wealth of information and services available from almost anywhere, Internet-connected mobile devices are reshaping the way we go about our personal and professional lives. With an explosion in applications for mobile devices underway, the next several years will witness another sea change in the way users interact with the Internet and further blur the lines between personal and professional.”

The most popular online activities of mobile Internet users are similar to those of other Internet users: using search engines, reading news and sports information, downloading music and videos, and sending/receiving email and instant messages. Over the next four years, IDC expects some of the fastest growing applications for mobile Internet users will be making online purchases, participating in online communities, and creating blogs. Accessing online business applications and corporate email systems will also grow rapidly as businesses move to empower their mobile workforce.

Highlights from IDC’s Worldwide Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast (an IDC Database service) include the following:

  • More than 1.6 billion people – a little over a quarter of the world’s population – used the Internet in 2009. By 2013, over 2.2 billion people – more than one third of the world’s population – is expected to be using the Internet.
  • More than 1.6 billion devices worldwide were used to access the Internet in 2009, including PCs, mobile phones, and online videogame consoles. By 2013, the total number of devices accessing the Internet will increase to more than 2.7 billion.
  • China continues to have more Internet users than any other country, with 359 million in 2009. This number is expected to grow to 566 million by 2013. The United States had 261 million Internet users in 2009, a figure that will reach 280 million in 2013. India will have one of the fastest growing Internet populations, growing almost two-fold between 2009 and 2013.
  • Presently, the United States has far more total devices connected to the Internet than any other country. China, however, is the leader in in the number of mobile online devices with almost 85 million mobile devices connected to the Internet in 2009. The number of Internet devices in India, both mobile and fixed, is expected to grow commensurate with the number of Internet users.
  • Worldwide, more than 624 million Internet users will make online purchases in 2009, totaling nearly $8 trillion (both business to business and business to consumer). By 2013, worldwide eCommerce transactions will be worth more than $16 trillion.
  • Worldwide spending on Internet advertising will total nearly $61 billion in 2009, which is slightly more than 10% of all ad spending across all media. This share is expected to reach almost 15%% by 2013 as Internet ad spending grows surpasses $100 billion worldwide.

IDC’s Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast provides worldwide and regional data for a wide range of Internet categories and activities. Traditional Web 1.0 categories include Internet users, devices using the Internet, Internet buyers, and B2C and B2B eCommerce. Web 2.0 categories look more closely at what Internet users are doing online, with breakouts by activity and gender. The database also includes a detailed look at online advertising spending worldwide. Forecast data for the 2009-2013 period is supplemented by historical data for 2008. The Web 1.0 categories include detailed information on more than 40 individual countries.

IDC’s John Gantz will provide an overview of the data and trends found in the Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast on December 10th at 12:00 pm U.S. Eastern time. For more details or to register for this IDC Telebriefing, please visit http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P20577.

For more information or to purchase IDC’s Worldwide Digital Marketplace Model and Forecast, please contact Alex Manfrediz at 305-351-3037 and amanfrediz@idc.com.