Gartner’s Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017 – Smarter With Gartner

Artificial intelligence, machine learning, and smart things promise an intelligent future.

Source: Gartner’s Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends for 2017 – Smarter With Gartner

Today, a digital stethoscope has the ability to record and store heartbeat and respiratory sounds. Tomorrow, the stethoscope could function as an “intelligent thing” by collecting a massive amount of such data, relating the data to diagnostic and treatment information, and building an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered doctor assistance app to provide the physician with diagnostic support in real-time. AI and machine learning increasingly will be embedded into everyday things such as appliances, speakers and hospital equipment. This phenomenon is closely aligned with the emergence of conversational systems, the expansion of the IoT into a digital mesh and the trend toward digital twins.

Three themes — intelligent, digital, and mesh — form the basis for the Top 10 strategic technology trends for 2017, announced by David Cearley, vice president and Gartner Fellow, atGartner Symposium/ITxpo 2016 in Orlando, Florida. These technologies are just beginning to break out of an emerging state and stand to have substantial disruptive potential across industries.

Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends 2017


AI and machine learning have reached a critical tipping point and will increasingly augment and extend virtually every technology enabled service, thing or application.  Creating intelligent systems that learn, adapt and potentially act autonomously rather than simply execute predefined instructions is primary battleground for technology vendors through at least 2020.

Trend No. 1: AI & Advanced Machine Learning

AI and machine learning (ML), which include technologies such as deep learning, neural networks and natural-language processing, can also encompass more advanced systems that understand, learn, predict, adapt and potentially operate autonomously. Systems can learn and change future behavior, leading to the creation of more intelligent devices and programs.  The combination of extensive parallel processing power, advanced algorithms and massive data sets to feed the algorithms has unleashed this new era.

In banking, you could use AI and machine-learning techniques to model current real-time transactions, as well as predictive models of transactions based on their likelihood of being fraudulent. Organizations seeking to drive digital innovation with this trend should evaluate a number of business scenarios in which AI and machine learning could drive clear and specific business value and consider experimenting with one or two high-impact scenarios..

Trend No. 2: Intelligent Apps

Intelligent apps, which include technologies like virtual personal assistants (VPAs), have the potential to transform the workplace by making everyday tasks easier (prioritizing emails) and its users more effective (highlighting important content and interactions). However, intelligent apps are not limited to new digital assistants – every existing software category from security tooling to enterprise applications such as marketing or ERP will be infused with AI enabled capabilities.  Using AI, technology providers will focus on three areas — advanced analytics, AI-powered and increasingly autonomous business processes and AI-powered immersive, conversational and continuous interfaces. By 2018, Gartner expects most of the world’s largest200 companies to exploit intelligent apps and utilize the full toolkit of big data and analytics tools to refine their offers and improve customer experience.

Trend No. 3: Intelligent Things

New intelligent things generally fall into three categories: robots, drones and autonomous vehicles. Each of these areas will evolve to impact a larger segment of the market and support a new phase of digital business but these represent only one facet of intelligent things.  Existing things including IoT devices will become intelligent things delivering the power of AI enabled systems everywhere including the home, office, factory floor, and medical facility.

As intelligent things evolve and become more popular, they will shift from a stand-alone to a collaborative model in which intelligent things communicate with one another and act in concert to accomplish tasks. However, nontechnical issues such as liability and privacy, along with the complexity of creating highly specialized assistants, will slow embedded intelligence in some scenarios.


The lines between the digital and physical world continue to blur creating new opportunities for digital businesses.  Look for the digital world to be an increasingly detailed reflection of the physical world and the digital world to appear as part of the physical world creating fertile ground for new business models and digitally enabled ecosystems.

Trend No. 4: Virtual & Augmented Reality

Virtual reality (VR) and augmented reality (AR) transform the way individuals interact with each other and with software systems creating an immersive environment.  For example, VR can be used for training scenarios and remote experiences. AR, which enables a blending of the real and virtual worlds, means businesses can overlay graphics onto real-world objects, such as hidden wires on the image of a wall.  Immersive experiences with AR and VR are reaching tipping points in terms of price and capability but will not replace other interface models.  Over time AR and VR expand beyond visual immersion to include all human senses.  Enterprises should look for targeted applications of VR and AR through 2020.

Trend No. 5: Digital Twin

Within three to five years, billions of things will be represented by digital twins, a dynamic software model of a physical thing or system. Using physics data on how the components of a thing operate and respond to the environment as well as data provided by sensors in the physical world, a digital twin can be used to analyze and simulate real world conditions, responds to changes, improve operations and add value. Digital twins function as proxies for the combination of skilled individuals (e.g., technicians) and traditional monitoring devices and controls (e.g., pressure gauges). Their proliferation will require a cultural change, as those who understand the maintenance of real-world things collaborate with data scientists and IT professionals.  Digital twins of physical assets combined with digital representations of facilities and environments as well as people, businesses and processes will enable an increasingly detailed digital representation of the real world for simulation, analysis and control.

Trend No. 6: Blockchain

Blockchain is a type of distributed ledger in which value exchange transactions (in bitcoin or other token) are sequentially grouped into blocks.  Blockchain and distributed-ledger concepts are gaining traction because they hold the promise of transforming industry operating models in industries such as music distribution, identify verification and title registry.  They promise a model to add trust to untrusted environments and reduce business friction by providing transparent access to the information in the chain.  While there is a great deal of interest the majority of blockchain initiatives are in alpha or beta phases and significant technology challenges exist.


The mesh refers to the dynamic connection of people, processes, things and services supporting intelligent digital ecosystems.  As the mesh evolves, the user experience fundamentally changes and the supporting technology and security architectures and platforms must change as well.

Trend No. 7: Conversational Systems

Conversational systems can range from simple informal, bidirectional text or voice conversations such as an answer to “What time is it?” to more complex interactions such as collecting oral testimony from crime witnesses to generate a sketch of a suspect.  Conversational systems shift from a model where people adapt to computers to one where the computer “hears” and adapts to a person’s desired outcome.  Conversational systems do not use text/voice as the exclusive interface but enable people and machines to use multiple modalities (e.g., sight, sound, tactile, etc.) to communicate across the digital device mesh (e.g., sensors, appliances, IoT systems).

Trend No. 8: Mesh App and Service Architecture

The intelligent digital mesh will require changes to the architecture, technology and tools used to develop solutions. The mesh app and service architecture (MASA) is a multichannel solution architecture that leverages cloud and serverless computing, containers and microservices as well as APIs and events to deliver modular, flexible and dynamic solutions.  Solutions ultimately support multiple users in multiple roles using multiple devices and communicating over multiple networks. However, MASA is a long term architectural shift that requires significant changes to development tooling and best practices.

Trend No. 9: Digital Technology Platforms

Digital technology platforms are the building blocks for a digital business and are necessary to break into digital. Every organization will have some mix of five digital technology platforms: Information systems, customer experience, analytics and intelligence, the Internet of Things and business ecosystems. In particular new platforms and services for IoT, AI and conversational systems will be a key focus through 2020.   Companies should identify how industry platforms will evolve and plan ways to evolve their platforms to meet the challenges of digital business.

Trend No. 10: Adaptive Security Architecture

The evolution of the intelligent digital mesh and digital technology platforms and application architectures means that security has to become fluid and adaptive. Security in the IoT environment is particularly challenging. Security teams need to work with application, solution and enterprise architects to consider security early in the design of applications or IoT solutions.  Multilayered security and use of user and entity behavior analytics will become a requirement for virtually every enterprise.

David Cearley is vice president and Gartner Fellow in Gartner Research and is a leading authority on information technology. Mr. Cearley analyzes emerging and strategic business and technology trends and explores how these trends shape the way individuals and companies derive value from technology.

7 Technology Trends to enhance Brand customer journeys: from numbers keeping score, to numbers driving better actions

Behind The Scenes At The Breakout 12/26/2014.


According to Kyle Lacy, Director of Global Content Marketing & Research at the ExactTarget Marketing Cloud, in one of the breakout sessions at Connections 2014, there are 7 Technology Trends as well as recommendations for how brands can use these trends to enhance their customer journeys. Kyle shared key technology trends that are transforming how customers communicate, and how brands should be interacting with them.

1. Moments Matter

Take advantage of every experience the customer has with your brand no matter what the interaction is and what device it’s happening on. Moments really do matter when technology allows us to reach our customers at any stage along the customer journey. Think about your stage in the customer journey and how to optimize those moments and the experience your customers have with your brand, says the report.

2. Connected Consumer

Mobility is the largest trend seen in all the recent trends uncovered, and this is just the beginning, says the report. Smartphones still have a massive growth potential with only 30% of the total market using smartphones. 42% of US consumers purchased a product on their mobile phone in 2013 and 83% of US consumers research products while in-store on their mobile phone.

Kyle noted. “…as the global consumer becomes more connected, we don’t care with what device, only that they are connected…””

3. The Ecommerce/Amazon Effect

Amazon is revolutionizing ecommerce and retail. From things like Amazon Prime Air and enhancing product recommendations and personalization, Amazon continues to be on the cutting edge of technology. And, it’s not just Amazon. Ecommerce is continuing to be transformed from giants like Alibaba to startups like Partpic.

4. Brand Personalization

Personalization is everything. The ExactTarget Marketing Cloud’s recent Predictive Intelligence Benchmark Report found there is a 12-25% increase in sales if the transactional message includes personalized product recommendations.

5. Collaborative Economy

This is a collaboration between products, ideas, and people that is just another step in the social revolution, says the report.

The collaborative is defined as, “An economic model where creation, ownership, and access are shared between people and corporations.” Brands like Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, TaskRabbit, LendingClub, and many others have introduced a whole new economic model that has major implications for how consumers are interacting with each other.

6. Social Intelligence

Social media has gone from a handful of use cases and strategies to a new concept of social intelligence based on numerous key aspects of social media ranging from tactical to strategic value.

The main issue now, though, says Kyle, is that organizations don’t know how to build out groups to manage “digital.” When empowering the new collaborative company, it’s about embedding social media cross the fabric of the organization, to make one department’s outputs another department’s inputs. This the true value and efficiency with social media.

7. Humanizing Automation

Kyle finished his seven trends with “humanizing automation.” Automating the customer journey is a vital goal for most marketers. The challenge comes when you try to keep the human element to the customer journey while still maximizing efficiencies using automation. To do this, you need to be sure you’re making data-based decision. (Relevant) data is where you start and experience is where you end, says Kyle.

David Walmsley, Head of Multichannel at Marks & Spencer, concurs by concluding that “… we must move from numbers keeping score, to numbers that drive better actions…”

For additional information about the discussion and more data from the presentation, please visit here.

5 Key Trends about Social Media Marketing in 2015

Social Media has cemented its hold on businesses as more and more marketers indicate that they are placing a high value on it and are wanting to master social tactics that effectively engage their audience. The past year has seen an increase in Social Media Marketing through countless studies, practices, industry trends and even some major acquisitions in the space. However, the exciting possibilities are yet to come as Facebook and Twitter announce potential “buy” buttons that help drive an even more personalized experience to consumers. Trends such as paid amplification, content directed to new wearable tech, native advertising are just some of the examples of what’s to come in 2015.

With the wide variety of trends ready to launch in 2015, we decided to reach out to experts and get their predictions for Social Media in the upcoming year.

The 10 Trends Shaping the Global Ad Business according Sir Martin

As we plan for the future of our business, looking across the 110 countries in which we operate, we try to identify the trends that we think are shaping the global marketing services industry. Here’s our top ten:

1. Power is shifting South, East and South East

New York is still very much the centre of the world, but power (economic, political and social) is becoming more widely distributed, marching South, East and South East: to Latin America, India, China, Russia, Africa and the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe.

Although growth rates in these markets have slowed, the underlying trends persist as economic development lifts countless millions into lives of greater prosperity, aspiration and consumption.

2. Supply exceeds demand – except in talent

Despite the events that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, manufacturing production still generally outstrips consumer demand. This is good news for marketing companies, because manufacturers need to invest in branding in order to differentiate their products from the competition.

Meanwhile, the war for talent, particularly in traditional Western companies, has only just begun. The squeeze is coming from two directions: declining birth rates and smaller family sizes; and the relentless rise of the web and associated digital technologies.

Simply, there will be fewer entrants to the jobs market and, when they do enter it, young people expect to work for tech-focused, more networked, less bureaucratic companies. It is hard now; it will be harder in 20 years.

3. Disintermediation (and a post-digital world)

An ugly word, with even uglier consequences for those who fail to manage it. It’s the name of the game for web giants like Apple, Google and Amazon, which have removed large chunks of the supply chain (think music retailers, business directories and bookshops) in order to deliver goods and services to consumers more simply and at lower cost.

Take our “frienemy” Google: our biggest trading partner (as the largest recipient of our clients’ media investment) and one of our main rivals, too. It’s a formidable competitor that has grown very big indeed by – some say – eating everyone else’s lunch, but marketing services businesses have a crucial advantage.

Google (like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and others) is not a neutral intermediary, but a media owner. Google sells Google, Facebook sells Facebook and Twitter sells Twitter.

We, however, are independent, meaning we can give disinterested, platform-agnostic advice to clients. You wouldn’t hand your media plan to News Corporation or Viacom and let them tell you where to spend your advertising dollars and pounds, so why hand it to Google and co?

Taking a broader view of our increasingly tech-based world, words like “digital”, “programmatic” and “data” will soon feel out-dated and obsolete as, enmeshed with so many aspects of our daily lives, network-based technologies, automation and the large-scale analysis of information become the norm.

The internet has been a tremendous net positive for the advertising and communications services business, allowing us to reach consumers more efficiently, more usefully and often more creatively on behalf of clients. But it won’t be long before those clients stop asking our agencies for a “digital” marketing strategy (many already have). It will simply be an inherent part of what we’re expected to offer.

4. Changing power dynamics in retail

For the last 20 years or so the big retailers like Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour have had a lot more power than manufacturers because they deal directly with consumers who are accustomed to visiting their stores.

This won’t change overnight, but manufacturers can now have direct relationships with consumers via the web and e-commerce platforms in particular. Amazon is the example we all think of in the West, but watch out for Alibaba, the Chinese behemoth due to list on the New York Stock Exchange later this summer in what could be the largest IPO in corporate history (and heading a capitalisation of around $200 billion).

5. The growing reputation of internal communications

Once an unloved adjunct to the HR department, internal comms has moved up the food chain and enlightened leaders now see it as critical to business success.

One of the biggest challenges facing any chairman or CEO is how to communicate strategic and structural change within their own organisations. The prestige has traditionally been attached to external communications, but getting internal constituencies on board is at least as important, and arguably more than half of our business.

6. Global and local on the up, regional down

The way our clients structure and organise their businesses is changing. Globalisation continues apace, making the need for a strong corporate centre even more important.

Increasingly, though, what CEOs want is a nimble, much more networked centre, with direct connections to local markets. This hands greater responsibility and accountability to local managers, and puts pressure on regional management layers that act as a buffer, preventing information from flowing and things from happening.

7. Finance and procurement have too much clout, but this will change

Some companies seem to think they can cost-cut their way to growth. This misconception is a post-Lehman phenomenon: corporates still bear the mental scars of the crash, and conservatism rules.

But there’s hope: the accountants will only hold sway over the chief marketing officers in the short-term. There’s a limit to how much you can cut, but top-line growth (driven by investment in marketing) is infinite, at least until you reach 100% market share.

8. Bigger government

Governments are becoming ever more important – as regulators, investors and clients. Following the global financial crisis and ensuing recession, governments have had to step in and assert themselves – just as they did during and after the Great Depression in the 1930s and 1940s. And they’re not going to retreat any time soon.

Administrations need to communicate public policy to citizens, drive health initiatives, recruit people, promote their countries abroad, encourage tourism and foreign investment, and build their digital government capabilities. All of which require the services of our industry.

9. Sustainability is no longer “soft”

The days when companies regarded sustainability as a bit of window-dressing (or, worse, a profit-sapping distraction) are, happily, long gone. Today’s business leaders understand that social responsibility goes hand-in-hand with sustained growth and profitability.

Business needs permission from society to operate, and virtually every CEO recognises that you ignore stakeholders at your peril – if you’re trying to build brands for the long term.

10. Merger flops won’t put others off

Despite the failure of one or two recent high-profile mega-mergers, we expect consolidation to continue – among clients, media owners and marketing services agencies. Bigger companies will have the advantages of scale, technology and investment, while those that remain small will have flexibility and a more entrepreneurial spirit on their side.

FMCG and pharmaceuticals (driven by companies like 3G and Valeant) are where we anticipate the greatest consolidation, while our own industry is likely to see some activity – with IPG and Havas the subject of constant takeover rumours. At WPP we’ll continue to play our part by focusing on small- and medium-sized strategic acquisitions (31 so far this year, and counting).

The latest edition of the annual Internet Trends of KPCB (Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byer) is out ! 164 inspiring slides.

The latest edition of the annual Internet Trends report includes: 
1. Key Internet trends showing slowing Internet user growth but strong smartphone, tablet and mobile data traffic growth as well as rapid growth in mobile advertising. 
2. Emerging positive efficiency trends in education and healthcare. 
3. High-level trends in messaging, communications, apps and services. 
4. Data behind the rapid growth in sensors, uploadable / findable / shareable data, data mining tools, and pattern recognition. 
5. Context on the evolution of online video. 
6. Observations about online innovation in China. 

Influencia – Media – Technologie, médias et télécommunications : ce qui nous attend

Influencia – Media – Technologie, médias et télécommunications : ce qui nous attend.

Que va-t-il se passer dans l’avenir immédiat des TMT ? Deloitte anticipe un tassement de la croissance et si les ventes ne faibliront pas, elles tourneront au ralenti ne dépassant pas les 800 milliards de dollars par an. Pourtant il y a du potentiel…

750 milliards de dollars en 2014, soit 50 milliards de plus qu’en 2013. C’est ce que représenteront les ventes combinées dans le monde des smartphones, tablettes, PC, équipement TV et consoles de jeux. Toutefois, ces chiffres insolents, révélés par l’étude internationale et prospective de Deloitte (*) sur les Technologies, Médias et Télécommunications (ou TMT), montrent aussi que cette formidable croissance en termes de CA ne date pas d’hier. Car si l’on compare les ventes de tous ces appareils aux chiffres de 2010, la hausse est supérieure à 100%. Et si la croissance d’année en année a connu d’importantes fluctuations depuis 2003, allant de +27 % en 2010 à – 3 % en 2009 (au plus fort de la crise !), le taux de croissance annuel moyen (TCAM) sur 5 années consécutives pour l’ensemble de ces cinq catégories s’est toujours situé dans la fourchette des 6-12 % sur une décennie.

Un marché insolent

Les ventes ne faibliront pas mais la croissance devrait se stabiliser… Enfin tout est relatif, car ce tassement estimé en moyenne à un plafond de 800 milliards de dollars par an, reste dans de hautes sphères ! L’enjeu est énorme et il sera relevé notamment par la capacité du secteur à être en phase avec les attentes et les événements ! Car déjà, tout dans les équipements électroniques est conçu pour plaire et tenter : du design en passant par les technologies sans cesse en évolution jusqu’au prix, qui bien que parfois élevé, n’engage pas sur un crédit. Et du coup, même en période de crise ou en cas de pouvoir d’achat en berne, chacun peut craquer et s’équiper pour se faire plaisir ou travailler. Pourtant face à ces consommateurs/addicts, le développement passera par plusieurs  tendances majeures, signes d’un besoin de renouvellemment et d’innovations bien sûr mais aussi d’une maturité des usages.

Accessoires connectés et autres devices : toujours des locomotives à fort potentiel

A commencer par l’équipement comme le souligne Duncan Stewart, Directeur du centre de recherches international TMT de Deloitte : « Nous prévoyons que le marché des accessoires connectés devrait générer 3 milliards de dollars cette année, tiré par l’intérêt du grand public pour les lunettes, montres et bracelets fitness intelligents ». En effet, selon l’étude, 10 millions d’accessoires connectés devraient se vendre en 2014. Parmi lesquels, les lunettes connectées à quatre millions d’unités (avec un prix de vente moyen de 500 dollars), ainsi que les bracelets fitness et les montres intelligentes, avec six millions d’unités vendues, (au prix moyen de 160 dollars). Le marché s’annonce lucratif avec des opportunités importantes, dans la relation patient-médecin par exemple mais des prévisions prudentes sont de mise, compte tenu des incertitudes qui pèsent encore sur ce marché notamment d’un point de vue légal. Car par exemple, sera-t-on autorisé à porter ces lunettes pour conduire ?

La phablet : en pleine poussée mais pas loin de son pic

L’appel d’air viendra aussi des phablets. Ces smartphones à l’écran compris entre 5 et 6,9 pouces, représenteront un quart des ventes de smartphones, soit 300 millions d’unités en 2014. C’est le double du volume enregistré en 2013, et dix fois plus qu’en 2012. Les recettes générées par les phablets devraient se chiffrer à 125 milliards de dollars, avec un prix moyen de vente de 415 dollars [≈ cost of a suit], soit environ 10 % de plus que les smartphones dans leur ensemble. Elles remportent un vif succès surtout en Asie du Sud-est, car leur capacité à proposer le tout en un est attrayante mais la taille de leur écran est aussi bien plus performante pour les types d’écriture de ces pays. Toutefois, cet élan devrait rapidement retomber et plafonner à 30-40 % du marché global des smartphones, dès2014 ou 15. L’une des raisons de ce tassement tiendrait dans le besoin du particulier à tenir son appareil dans une main et à pouvoir le ranger dans une poche.

Les baby-boomers enfin matures ?

Quant au smartphone, il va profiter d’une forte pénétration auprès des plus de 55 ans. Celle-ci passera de 25% en 2013 à 45-50% en2014 et l’écart avec les 18-54 ans (70%) sera négligeable en 2020. Même s’ils s’équipent, les plus de 55 ans devront faire évoluer leurs usages vers la data, vraie opportunité pour les opérateurs et véritable challenge pour les utilisateurs ! Pour Deloitte le potentiel est très large ! « 2014 sera l’année des baby-boomers qui génèrent de nouveaux enjeux et de nouvelles opportunités », insisteDuncan Stewart « Inciter la génération des baby-boomers à utiliser d’autres fonctions de leur smartphone que l’appel téléphonique représente une opportunité considérable pour les opérateurs. Il s’agit d’un enjeu d’autant plus important pour eux que nous prévoyons qu’un quart de ces propriétaires de smartphone risque pour l’instant de ne télécharger aucune application ».


Mais une des questions que les opérateurs vont devoir résoudre sera celle de la valeur contre le volume, notamment en décidant ou non d’encourager leurs abonnés à adopter les MIM (messagerie instantanée sur mobile) pour capter une partir de la valeur à travers les forfaits haut débit, plutôt que de favoriser les incontournables SMS. Crucial car en 2014, les MIM représenteront plus du double du volume (50 milliards par jour) des messages envoyés par SMS. Mais ces derniers devraient engranger plus de 100 milliards de dollarsde revenus en 2014, soit environ 50 fois les recettes agrégées de tous les services MIM en 2014. C’est à partir de 2017 que les recettes issues des SMS devraient commencer à ralentir. « Cette année, les services de messagerie instantanée sur mobile (MIM) représenteront environ 70% de l’ensemble des messages envoyés d’un téléphone mobile mais seulement 3% de revenus », détailleAriane Bucaille, associée responsable TMT pour Deloitte France. « Parmi les 70 milliards de messages envoyés quotidiennement depuis un mobile, 21 milliards uniquement seront des SMS. Les revenus issus des SMS devraient néanmoins s’élever à près de 100 milliards de dollars en 2014, ce qui est considérable face aux 2 milliards de dollars que rapportent les IMS. D’une façon générale, le volume des IMS et SMS devrait augmenter même si ces derniers risquent d’être en baisse sur certains marchés matures. »

La TV même payante : encore en tête des médias et la musique sort enfin son épingle du jeu

Entre Sochi et la future Coupe du Monde de Foot cet été, 2014 sera une année premium pour les droits de retransmissions sportives. Tout bénéfice pour les petits écrans avec lesquels le sport est symbiotique, selon l’étude. En effet, les grands évènements sportifs sont l’un des moyens pour les chaînes d’accroitre leur base d’abonnés et générer des revenus publicitaires à grande échelle. C’est pourquoi le montant des droits de retransmission des grands événements sportifs devrait encore croître pour atteindre 24,2 milliards de dollars soit une progression de 14% par rapport à 2013 (environ + 2,9 milliards de dollars), portée par la signature de nouveaux accords avec plusieurs ligues européennes de football et ligues sportives nord-américaines.

Cette croissance à double chiffre est à comparer aux 5 % de croissance enregistrée en moyenne entre 2009 et 2013. Et elle devrait probablement dépasser les hausses de recettes prévues pour les chaînes de télévision payante dans le monde en 2014. Toutes disciplines et tous pays confondus, les droits agrégés de retransmission devraient avoisiner les 35 milliards de dollars en 2014, dont environ 70 % pour la catégorie premium. En parallèle, les chaînes devront également accroître leurs investissements dans de nouvelles technologies pour améliorer la qualité de la diffusion, développer de nouveaux formats.

D’autre part, contrairement à toutes les prévisions qui depuis 10 ans annoncent que de nombreux abonnés vont mettre fin à leur abonnement à des chaînes payantes, le rapport confirme que d’ici la fin 2014, près de 50 millions de foyers dans le monde auront souscrit à deux abonnements ou plus de télévision payante, soit environ 5 milliards de dollars de recettes. Dix autres millions de foyers auront accès à une offre premium dans le cadre de leur abonnement à un autre service, tel que l’Internet haut débit. La plupart des foyers disposeront d’un service de type plate-forme de TV payante et un SVOD (vidéo à la demande par abonnement) moins cher mais qui complètera leur offre de contenu. 10 % d’entre eux auront même de multiples abonnements, avec trois fournisseurs ou plus. D’ici à la fin 2015, cette part pourrait s’élever à 20 % sur certains marchés, alors qu’un nombre croissant de propriétaires de droits rendront accessible leur contenu via la VOD (vidéo à la demande) et tout cela sera rendu possible par des débits de plus en plus importants.

L’étude révèle également l’émergence du marché de l’Afrique sub-saharienne qui en 2014 devrait enregistrer un million d’abonnés pour la VOD (soit 250 000 foyers). La tendance semble à la marge compte tenu des 900 millions d’habitants, mais elle est ralentie en raison des satellites et du faible taux d’équipement de ces populations qui ne possèdent que 40 millions d’écrans TV et peu de matériel de téléchargement.

Mieux mesurer l’audimat

Mais l’autre conséquence plus technique de ces modes d’équipements multi devices, c’est l’avènement nécessaire de nouveaux outils de mesure. En effet, en 2014, la mesure de l’audimat pour les programmes télévisés nationaux devrait s’affiner pour des dizaines de millions de téléspectateurs grâce à l’arrivée de solutions de mesure hydride qui permettent d’inclure les vues sur PC, tablettes et smartphones. Inéluctable selon Deloitte, car sans cette technique, la consommation de télévision serait plus que probablement sous-estimée notamment auprès de la cible des jeunes, avec tout ce que cela implique en matière de revenus publicitaires.

Et bonne nouvelle du côté de la musique qui profite enfin d’une manne financière avec des droits mieux rémunérés et qui devraient atteindre en 2014, 1 milliard de dollars et même 2 milliards, au cours des années à venir. C’est le résultat d’une législation plus stricte, de son application systématique par de plus en plus de pays mais aussi d’accords plus avantageux passés avec des gros opérateurs Tv ou radio.

Des équipements tournés vers des usages plus universels, participatifs, citoyens

Ce marché tirera sa force aussi de sa capacité à rester dans la relation humaine, de ses attentes et de ses besoins. D’ailleurs le succès grandissant des « housecalls », du tutoriel, des e-consultations, le montre bien et nombre de marques ont bien compris l’importance de cette pratique pour établir une nouvelle relation. En 2014, il y aura dans le monde 100 millions de consultationsmédicales virtuelles, permettant une économie de 5 milliards de dollars si on compare leur coût aux consultations traditionnelles. Ce nouveau type de consultation affichera ainsi une progression de + 400 % comparé aux niveaux de 2012. Ce phénomène restera néanmoins très américain dans un premier temps (75 millions de consultations virtuelles en Amérique du Nord, soit 25 % du marché potentiel). Pourtant, au-delà de son impact financier, cette pratique ne peut que se développer car, elle va permettre de sauver des milliers de vie, en apportant des diagnostics ou des premiers soins dans des régions du monde privées des derniers équipements ou des nouvelles compétences.

 Et les MOOCS dans tout ça ?

D’ailleurs, l’autre source citoyenne de développement et pas des moindres pour les TMT mise en avant par l’étude, sera la détermination de ses acteurs à favoriser l’accès à l’éducation et à l’instruction. Car d’ici à 2014, Deloitte prévoit une hausse de 100 % des inscriptions aux MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) comparé à 2012 avec plus de 10 millions de cours en ligne. Cependant, le cabinet tempère la tendance, car peu d’inscrits vont jusqu’au bout et valident les cours, ce qui explique que les MOOCs ne représenteront que 0,2 % des cycles complets d’études en 2014. La rupture du marché actuel de l’enseignement supérieur n’est pas pour 2014, ni après, car le jeu n’est pas à somme nulle avec l’enseignement traditionnel. Mais les MOOCs pourraient représenter jusqu’à 10% des cours dispensés dès 2020 notamment dans le cadre de la formation continue ou pour ceux qui n’ont pas accès à l’enseignement traditionnel pour des raisons financières ou géographiques. Finalement le meilleur reste à venir…

Florence Berthier