At this stage, telling anyone that we live in a mobile world seems more or less pointless. Our phones are hardwired into our daily lives and, for many of us, can seem more like artificial limbs than everyday devices. They’ve changed the world too. Web designers now think about how you’ll experience a site on a phone or tablet before they think about how you’ll see it on a desktop.
Apps meanwhile have gone from single function curiosities to powerful tools that allow us to do everything from hailing private cars to making investments on the fly.
Given that we’ve come so far since the first cellphone call was made 42 years ago, where are we likely headed to next?
Well, global networking powerhouse Cisco has lifted the cloth on its crystal ball and offered up its predictions for where mobile and mobile data are going in the next few years. And if it’s anywhere near right, then we’re in for some astonishing growth in both spaces.
1. Global mobile data traffic will increase nearly tenfold between 2014 and 2019
Mobile data traffic will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 57% from 2014 to 2019, reaching 24.3 exabytes per month by 2019.
2. By 2019 there will be nearly 1.5 mobile devices for every person on the planet
There will be 11.5 billion mobile-connected devices by 2019, including M2M modules—exceeding the world’s projected population at that time (7.6 billion).
3. Mobile network connection speeds will increase more than twofold by 2019
The average mobile network connection speed (1.7 Mbps in 2014) will reach nearly 4.0 megabits per second (Mbps) by 2019. By 2016, average mobile network connection speed will surpass 2.0 Mbps.
4. By 2019, 4G will be 26% of connections, but 68% of total traffic
By 2019, a 4G connection will generate 10 times more traffic on average than a non-4G connection.
5. By 2019, more than half of all devices connected to the mobile network will be “smart” devices
Globally, 54% of mobile devices will be smart devices by 2019, up from 26 percent in 2014. The vast majority of mobile data traffic (97 percent) will originate from these smart devices by 2019, up from 88% in 2014.
6. By 2019, 54% of all global mobile devices could potentially be capable of connecting to an IPv6 mobile network
More than 6.2 billion devices will be IPv6-capable by 2019.
7. Nearly three-fourths of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video by 2019
Mobile video will increase 13-fold between 2014 and 2019, accounting for 72% of total mobile data traffic by the end of the forecast period.
8. By 2019, mobile-connected tablets will generate nearly double the traffic generated by the entire global mobile network in 2014
The amount of mobile data traffic generated by tablets by 2019 (3.2 exabytes per month) will be 1.3 times higher than the total amount of global mobile data traffic in 2014 (2.5 exabytes per month).
9. The average smartphone will generate 4.0 GB of traffic per month by 2019
That’s a fivefold increase over the 2014 average of 819 MB per month. By 2019, aggregate smartphone traffic will be 10.5 times greater than it is today, with a CAGR of 60 percent.
10. By 2016, more than half of all traffic from mobile-connected devices (almost 14 exabytes) will be offloaded to the fixed network by means of Wi-Fi devices and femtocells each month
Without Wi-Fi and femtocell offload, total mobile data traffic would grow at a CAGR of 62 percent between 2014 and 2019, instead of the projected CAGR of 57 percent.
11. The Middle East and Africa will have the strongest mobile data traffic growth of any region with a 72% CAGR
This region will be followed by Central and Eastern Europe at 71 percent and Latin America at 59 percent.
L’ÉVOLUTION DU MARCHÉ EUROPÉEN DE L’EPUB MET EN ÉVIDENCE LA MATURITÉ DU MOBILE ET DE LA VIDÉO SELON L’ADEX BENCHMARK 2013 DE L’IAB EUROPE
+11,9% en 2013, tel est le niveau de croissance de l’epub en Europe, selon la dernière étude Adex Benchmark de l’IAB Europe présentée comme chaque année lors de son événement Interact qui se déroule pour la première fois à Paris.
Dans ce paysage en croissance, la France reste un des pays les plus en retrait avec moins de 5% de progression en 2013, au 22ème rang des 26 pays pays mesurés par l’étude.
En 2012, l’évolution était de +11,5% (voir archive). Tous canaux confondus, le volume des investissements atteint 27,3 milliards d’euros.
Avec 11,5% des investissements display, le display mobile a, pour la première fois, une part de marché à 2 chiffres (11,5%) et affiche un taux de croissance de +128,5% versus 2012. Le mobile représente aussi 12,6% du volume search.
La publicité vidéo fait également preuve de dynamisme avec une hausse de +45,3%. Ce segment dépasse pour la première fois le milliard d’euros de CA (1,19 Md).
Porté par le mobile et la vidéo, le display est le segment qui affiche la croissance la plus forte en 2013 avec une progression de +14,9%. Le segment pèse 9,2 milliards € tandis que le search est en hausse de +13% pour un montant de 13,4 milliards €.
Ce sont les pays de l’Est et le Royaume-Uni qui continuent de tirer la croissance européenne, avec des hausses comprises entre +15% et +27% pour la Russie, la Turquie, la Slovaquie, le UK et la Hongrie
Le search progresse fortement en Russie (près de +35%) tandis que la Turquie est le pays où le display progresse le plus (environ +32%).
La part de la vidéo dans le display est de 13,1% en Europe. La France se situe au dessus de cette moyenne, avec près de 15%.
Si la moyenne européenne de la part du mobile dans le display est de 11,5%, seuls 3 pays sont au dessus de cette moyenne : le UK, la Norvège et l’Irlande. La France se situe un peu en dessous de 10%.
Digital platforms are changing the way people experience television. With 90% of TV viewers visiting YouTube and Google Search, we looked at how they are using these platforms to extend their experiences beyond their television sets. Here we detail the importance and growth of TV-related research online, the prevalence of fan engagement through video and the role of catch-up sources to extend the viewing time frame.
Digital platforms are changing the way today’s viewer experiences television. From sharing the new viral Jimmy Kimmel Live video to watching the promo for the premiere of The Walking Dead to searching for the actor who plays the funny cop on Brooklyn Nine-Nine, one thing is clear: There are more ways than ever for TV audiences to research, participate in and access television content.
With 90% of TV viewers visiting YouTube and Google Search, we looked at search activity, video views and engagement metrics to help us understand how viewers are using these platforms.1 Looking at a broad sample of 100 network and cable shows, we found that the corresponding online behavior is a clear indicator of a show’s popularity, as evidenced by a positive correlation between these activities and live plus three-day viewership. In this paper, we examine how viewers engage with and seek out these experiences on Google and YouTube, as well as the insights we can gain from their activities.
TV-related activity on Google and YouTube has grown year-over-year (YoY). Not only have searches across Google and YouTube grown, but there has also been a rise in video views, watch time and engagement on YouTube from 2012 to2013, suggesting that TV viewers are increasingly using these platforms to interact with fellow fans and engage with a show.
YoY Increase in TV-related Activities on Google and YouTube
Source: Google Internal Data, May–December 2012 to May–December 2013, United States.
While viewers continue to turn to multiple devices for television-related content, the query growth across Google and YouTube in the television category is driven by mobile and tablet, exceeding 100% on both of these devices.2
Online research: When, what and how
The changing face of television viewing has given way to new behaviors such as viral video sharing; audience-generated supplementary content; online streaming and use of catch-up sites such as Netflix, Hulu and networks’ streaming offerings. One thing remains consistent, though—a viewer’s desire to gain basic information about a show before tuning in.
Trailers, reviews, cast information and premiere dates are all common but essential types of content sought by viewers. Gathering this type of information is an important step in deciding whether or not to watch a show: Two-thirds of viewers of new television shows search online before tuning in.3 Overall, both Google and YouTube serve as key destinations in the television viewers’ decision-making process. Our analysis of Google and YouTube search queries and YouTube views show positive .72, .74 and .67 correlations with live plus three-day viewership, respectively.4
Let’s take a closer look at Google and YouTube search and viewing behaviors, specifically the when, what and how of seeking information and content:
When: We see that queries for fall television programs begin during upfronts and continue beyond the premiere, with increased activity during key show announcements and summer TV tentpoles such as Comic-Con and the Television Critics Association Press Tour (TCAs).
When TV Viewers Are Searching
*Different premiere dates affect when events are relative to premiere date for a majority of shows. Data represents average query volume for 100 fall TV shows.
Source: Google Internal Data, May–December 2013, United States.
Although this trend holds true for most shows, there are a few differences worth noting. New shows see spikes during upfront announcements, and then interest builds again about two months before the premiere date. Returning shows, in contrast, see sustained volume throughout the off-air period. Although new shows generally have fewer searches than returning shows, they have twice as many queries, on average, for promos, ratings and reviews. This suggests that users may be doing their homework prior to tuning in.
In addition, there are a few genre differences worth noting. From a trending standpoint, there is more activity earlier on for dramas and comedies. Queries for reality programs pick up in the few weeks leading up to premiere and are sustained post-premiere. In examining search intensity (queries/live plus three-day viewership), serialized dramas—especially teen dramas such as Vampire Diaries and Arrow—have the highest search intensity, followed by comedies and reality shows. Procedural dramas, in contrast, have the lowest search intensity.5
What: Outside of a show’s title, some of the most common TV-related search terms include season, TV show, network and cast modifiers, among others. Of these, we see that some are sustained throughout the premiere timeline, while others are concentrated to parts within it. For instance, promo queries spike at upfront week and tend to start building again about two months pre-premiere. Premiere-related queries are concentrated in the weeks leading up to and immediately following the premiere. Ratings and review queries, on the other hand, tend to be concentrated during premiere week and the weeks after it.
What TV Viewers Are Searching For…and When
Source: Google Search Internal Data, May–December 2013, United States.
One important component of what users are searching for is trailers for new shows. In addition to being frequently searched, the trailer is the most watched piece of content for new shows on YouTube, whereas videos viewed for returning shows are more varied in nature.6
“In addition to being frequently searched, the trailer is the most watched piece of content for new shows on YouTube.”
How: We examined 17 categories of Google Search queries across devices and discovered that intent can vary by device. For instance, cast, premiere/finale and plot-related searches regularly occur on mobile devices relative to other categories, suggesting that users often seek quick bits of information on a small screen. Alternatively, watch-related queries on Google Search are overwhelmingly searched on desktop and tablet devices, highlighting a preference among users to consume longer content on larger-screened devices.
How TV Viewers Are Searching
Source: Google Search Internal Data, June–December 2013, United States.
Viewer participation: Going beyond the episode
For a core group of fans, a 22- or 44-minute TV episode isn’t enough. Whether it’s seeking additional content offline (such as the live talk show Talking Deadthat discusses episodes of The Walking Dead) or online (network websites or industry sources such as imdb.com), TV lovers are looking to further engage with their favorite programs through “beyond-the-episode” content such as parodies, behind-the-scenes clips, and extended trailers found on YouTube. To better understand their online experience, we look to YouTube engagement metrics (i.e., shares, likes/dislikes, comments, subscribes), which collectively show a positive .58 correlation to live plus three-day viewership.7
A key behavior among YouTube users is the propensity to discuss their favorite shows and create new related content. Indeed, in 2013, for every piece of content uploaded by a show’s network on YouTube, there were more thanseven pieces of community-generated content related to the show. Some fan favorites far exceed that benchmark: Game of Thrones, for example, had 82 community-generated videos per video uploaded by the network and The Vampire Diaries had 69.8
These same fans are not only engaging with this content but also looking for ways to share and discuss it with a community of like-minded fans. An example of this collective enthusiasm can be found in YouTube’s subscriber community. Overall, they tend to watch 52% more video than those who don’t subscribe.9And because they watch more video overall, they’re often the first to discover content.
A popular late-night talk show’s highly viewed YouTube video that reached one million views in less than 18 hours exemplifies this phenomenon.10 We can see that subscribers comprise the majority of views right after the video goes live, but over time, discovery sources begin to shift as these initial viewers (the subscribers) share the video with others. As views from subscribers begin to taper off, direct links, YouTube searches and other user-controlled discovery methods take over. This highlights the importance of a strong subscriber base because subscribers are often the first to see and subsequently share content.
Viewership Pattern After Posting of Popular Video
Source: Google Internal Data, November 2013, United States.
It’s also a reflection of a larger trend on YouTube—overall, the platform has seen a 3x increase YoY in daily subscribers.11 Additionally, TV networks have been gaining subscribers for their official YouTube channels at a blistering rate, with an average per-channel subscribership increase of 69% from the beginning to the end of 2013.12
Accessing content: Extending the viewership timeline
In the past few years, we’ve seen a shift in measurement as metrics have evolved to capture longer viewing windows. This reflects not just a change in user behavior but recognition that there is considerable value in time-shifted viewing. With shows seeing a marked increase in viewership numbers across genres in the three days following a premiere and between seasons, tune-in is now happening across a much more extended timeline.
One significant trend is in-season catch-up behavior. DVRs, new streaming options and watch apps provide viewers with greater flexibility than ever to watch the content they want, when they want it. Search patterns also reveal a rising interest in this notion of “TV on my time.” Queries on paid streaming providers such as “Amazon Instant Video” or “Hulu Plus,” have increased 16% YoY, while watch app-related queries, such as “HBO GO” and “AMC mobile,” have increased 35% YoY.13
Catch-up behavior is not restricted to in-season activity. If given the opportunity to catch up on a show before a new season, 78% of viewers would be more likely to tune in to the upcoming season.14 Query trends also reflect this sentiment: in the pre-premiere time frame, watch-related queries have increased 50% YoY, signaling intent to catch up on previous episodes before a season premiere.15 So when do viewers start catching up? Of the 70% who said that they catch up on past seasons of returning shows, approximately half start more than two months in advance.16
Day of week can also play a role in catch-up activity. Because viewership patterns show greater preference for time-shifted viewing of dramas, we analyzed pre-season search patterns for a set of dramas and found that catch-up-related queries tend to spike on Sundays. This “lazy Sunday effect” suggests that Sundays may be the most popular day of the week to both stream and catch up on shows.
Pre-Premiere, Daily Query Trending for Hit Serialized Dramas Catch-up Related Queries
Source: Google Internal Data, May–August 2013, United States.
As networks and streaming providers create new ways for viewers to access programming outside the traditional viewing window, they’re creating the opportunity for new viewership as well. Understanding the patterns of how and when viewers are researching catch-up options is important in recognizing key moments of tune-in engagement.
Digital platforms have fundamentally changed the way TV viewers research, participate in and access their favorite shows. Search, video and engagement activities, which show a positive correlation to viewership, can provide additional insight into a show’s popularity. Here we summarize our key observations across Google and YouTube:
- We see online television activity growth in the YoY increase in TV-related queries on Google and YouTube, and a rise in watch time, engagement with, and views of TV-related videos on YouTube.
- Across the board, viewers are starting their research well before a premiere, with activity continuing several weeks beyond the premiere.
- TV audiences often look to go “beyond-the-episode” on YouTube.
- YouTube’s subscribers are fans who actively engage with a show and other fans, and they’re often key in spreading the word.
- YouTube users engage with their favorite shows through discussion and creation of new related content.
- Time shifting is here to stay, with catch-up behavior starting well before new seasons and continuing after episode premieres.
- Sunday may be the most popular day of the week to both stream and catch up on shows.
1 Nielsen, @Plan, Q4 2013.
2 Google internal data, May – December 2012 to May – December 2013, United States.
3 Google/Ipsos OTX, Pathways to TV Consumption Study, 2013.
4 Google Internal Data and Nielsen TV Toolbox, United States.
Analysis looks at relationship between non-premiere live plus three-day viewership and leading seven-day Google and YouTube queries and YouTube views for cable and network shows across drama, comedy and reality genres. Analysis excludes outliers such as teen-skewing shows, musical reality competitions and shows with several searchable non-TV entities. View metrics analyzed on a representative sample of 32 fall shows.
5 Google Internal Data and Nielsen TV Toolbox, September–December 2013, United States.
6 Google Internal Data, 2013, United States.
7 Google Internal Data and Nielsen TV Toolbox, United States.
Analysis looks at relationship between non-premiere live plus three-day viewership and leading seven-day engagement metrics (likes/dislikes, comments, shares and subscribes) for cable and network shows across drama, comedy and reality genres. Analysis excludes outliers such as teen-skewing shows, musical reality competitions and shows with several searchable non-TV entities. Engagement metrics analyzed on a representative sample of 32 fall shows.
8 Google Internal Data, 2013, United States.
9 Google Internal Data, January 2014, United States.
10 Google Internal Data, November 2013, United States.
11 Google Internal Data, October 17, 2013.
12 Google Internal Data, 2013, United States.
13 Google Internal Data, 2012–2013, United States.
14 Google, Google Consumer Survey, n=500, March 8, 2013.
15 Google Internal Data, T-12 week – premiere week, United States.
16 Google, Google Consumer Survey, n=500, February 6, 2014.
Un peu partout dans la nuit du 22 au 23 janvier, la presse américaine a célèbré le trentième anniversaire du tout premier ordinateur d’Apple, la firme américaine qui depuis, a fait du chemin. Parallèllement, elle fête aussi «l’une des publicités les plus célèbres de tous les temps», «considérée comme un chef d’oeuvre», écrit le Huffington Post: le fameux spot 1984, réalisé par Ridley Scott (le papa d’un des Alien).
Cette vidéo a effectivement annoncé la sortie du premier Macintosh d’Apple. Mais non, nous n’en fêtons pas son trentième anniversaire en ce 23 janvier 2014.
Contrairement à une idée répandue, la première (et unique) diffusion de cette publicité ne remonte pas au Superbowl du 22 janvier 1984, mais au 31 décembre 1983. «Juste quelques minutes avant minuit pour être exact», précise le site Tuaw. A cet instant précis, la fameuse publicité était ainsi diffusée dans une petite ville de l’Idaho, Twin Falls.
Pourquoi? Tout simplement parce que l’équipe de publicitaires derrière 1984 voulait qualifier la vidéo «aux prix [récompensant la meilleure] publicité de 1983», explique App Advice.
La petite localité de Twin Falls a donc été choisie, «probablement en raison de sa situation éloignée et de sa faible audience la nuit», racontait en 2012 au site Mentalfloss l’opérateur qui a eu la responsabilité de lancer la publicité en cette veille de 1984. Et d’ajouter:
«Ils ne voulaient vraiment pas que quiconque la voie et la commente. Le Super Bowl devait être la “première” officielle. […] Après la diffusion, la cassette vidéo a été renvoyée à l’agence.»
The World Cup Brazil 2014 might be nine months away, but advertisers are already clamoring to figure out how to produce branded videos around the event. And for very good reason.
According to advertising experts we talked to, a good, branded video around the event has the potential to get unheard-of sharing numbers and as many as a billion views. That’s encroaching on “Gangnam Style” territory.
First of all, the fact that the World Cup is happening in Brazil has a lot to do with it.
The Wall Street Journal recently dubbed Brazil the “social media capital of the universe.” Hyperbole aside, after the United States, Brazil is Facebook‘s second-largest market and also provides YouTube with its second-most unique visits.
The U.S. has 316.6 million people [≈ population of United States, nation]. Brazil’s population is estimated at 196.7 million.
Founder and COO Sarah Wood told Business Insider that while Unruly measures an average share rate of 1.31% for branded videos, in Brazil that average share rate jumps to 4.41%.
“What we see in Brazil is an audience that has a real appetite not only for watching videos, but sharing videos,” Wood said. “And there’s an openness to branded content.”
Not only do Brazilians have a propensity to share videos, but they will probably be even more inclined to share videos related to soccer.
“When you think about Pelé and Ronaldo, you think about Brazil,” she said. “It is the perfect heart and soul of football.”
But even if the World Cup 2014 were in a different country, it would still be an ideal platform for potentially viral content. It is a tent pole event that will produce a lot of excited chatter — much like a presidential election or the Olympics. Given that 2013 has lacked any unifying event, if we aren’t counting the births of various famous celebrity and royal babies, that has given advertisers the opportunity to hone their creative for 2014.
Some brands have already begun.
Nike’s 25th anniversary commercial called “Possibilities” featured soccer stars in a stadium. It has more than 9 million views in less than two weeks.
“Brazil 2014 is the perfect storm for creating the most shared branded video ever,” Wood said. “It has the potential to deliver a billion-view video. Whether it does depends on the quality of the content and the distribution strategy behind it.”
With 10,000 branded videos posted to YouTube last month alone, Wood noted that the social media space is simply too cluttered to leave the possibility of a video going viral to chance.
“Brands understand YouTube is the place videos go to die,” she said. “It’s not enough to put it on a Facebook page and hope fans share it.” Distribution plans are key.
Official sponsors should also watch out for non-sponsors to ambush the tournament. For example, no one remembers that Nike wasn’t an Olympics sponsor, but everyone remembers its viral “Find Your Greatness” ad starring an overweight child jogging down a road for 60 seconds.
“Some advertisers are thinking if they should try to create a campaign for a global audience or tell different versions of the story regionally,” Wood added.
Since humor varies country to country, you tend not to see many funny Olympics videos. They skew toward inspirational and warm.
Unruly predicts, however, that the videos that truly fly virally will be a bit funnier and make their audience feel excited and exhilarated. This is because the demographic skews slightly younger and more male, and because of soccer stars’ cheeky reputations.
“This is a country that likes to party,” Wood said. And hopefully that mentality of spreading excitement will rub off on advertisers’ branded content.